By Eric Sieger
Alma SID

Well, now that everyone in the region has calmed down from last weekend's "Game of the Millennium," let's turn our regional attention to the not-so-clear playoff picture.

There was a lot of talk after last week's game that John Carroll has solidified itself as a playoff-caliber team. When was the last time you heard that following a loss? Although I wasn't able to attend the game, you can't discount the fact that the Blue Streaks played the most dominant program in the nation straight-up for 60 minutes plus three overtimes. But where does this leave the playoff picture?

Muddied, at best. Within the region, there are five automatic bids -- the CCIW, HCAC, MIAA, NCAC and OAC. Of course, most everyone knows by now that outside of the 15 AQ's doled out that 13 bids will be extended nationwide to schools that are either playing in a conference without an AQ or as an independent.

It has been argued that the OAC deserves a second bid, and there is little evidence to dispute that argument with three teams (Mount Union, JCU and ONU) ranked in the Top 25. It says here that if JCU runs the table, they're in. Same goes for Ohio Northern. But neither scenario is a given in the rugged OAC.

It is highly doubtful that the Heartland Conference or the Michigan Intercollegiate will garner an at-large bid, as the HCAC hasn't had a "marquee" win and doesn't have the tradition of two schools getting bids, while the MIAA has been a uncharacteristic 5-12 outside of league play, just 2-12 if you take Alma's three nonconference wins out of the mix.

Really the only "league" with any tradition is the North Coast, as its eight playoff appearances this decade is second in the region to the OAC's 10, with Allegheny's 1990 title thrown in for good measure. (I realize that many of the teams were in different conferences throughout this decade, but for the sake of this argument, let's just count the schools in their current leagues.)

The CCIW has received just five playoff bids this decade, but does have two Top 25 teams in Wheaton and Millikin.

The other argument being bandied about is how the NCAA will break the bids down. There are nine bids reserved for Pool B teams, or those that are in non-automatic qualifier conferences or play as independents. Four "at-large" bids have been designated as other (whatever that means). The argument is currently over whether those four "other" bids are reserved for second-place teams, like a John Carroll or Ohio Northern, or if they could go to someone like Lakeland if they don't win their league, which is a non-AQ conference.

The other big question is which AQ-conferences will receive an at-large. Besides the OAC, the Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin conferences all have legitimate chances out west, as do the Centennial, Middle Atlantic, North Coast and New England conference, to just name the obvious. Most likely some league will play themselves out of an at-large berth if the second-place team loses two more games or is upset, but that is six conferences with at least one team, in most cases more than one, still in search of a bid if they don't win their league title.

I believe the real answer is that no one is quite sure what will happen at this point.. The argument that the new AQ process will cheapen the playoffs is valid, but only to a point. I think the enthusiasm generated at schools around the nation that never had a shot at the playoffs because their school lacked the reputation or perfect record to get into the playoffs can only be a positive. It puts the emphasis back on conference play and can rekindle a team like Springfield or Hope that hasn't fared will in its pre-conference schedule.

Yeah, it's not perfect, but with some tinkering and some experimentation, I think that the tournament will be as exciting or more so this year and for many to come. And you can count on a major upset by some upstart, unknown from a league that everyone squawked about receiving an AQ. That's the beauty of college football -- the play on the field speaks for itself.

Big games this weekend
Hope (0-3, 0-0 MIAA) at Defiance (3-2, 3-2 MIAA): Hope, just beginning its conference schedule, plays at Defiance in the Yellow Jackets final MIAA football game. Hope is reeling, having lost five straight. One of those losses was to Defiance in the season finale a year ago in Holland. Hope has lost its three games by an average of five points, and is one team in the nation that should benefit from the motivation that a win could get them on track towards a league title and playoff berth. The Yellow Jackets should be up for this game as well, as it is their first home game since the tragic death of junior defensive lineman Adam Perna. They showed last week they could hang with the big boys of the MIAA, giving defending champ Albion all they could handle and more. If the Flying Dutch have any "hope" of winning, they must shut down the pass-happy attack of Defiance and not let MIAA MVP front-runner Mike Groll kill them.

Adrian (1-3, 0-1 MIAA) at Albion (2-2, 1-0): A must-win for the Bulldogs, period. This should be an interesting style in contrasts, as the Bulldogs pass attack has been quite prolific this season, led by junior signal-caller Joe Davis. Ryan Speiser, a senior wide receiver is fourth in receiving yards per game (165.3), fifth in pass receptions per game (9.0) and fifth in scoring offense (14.0 points per game) in the nation. Speiser has done this in only nine quarters, playing full games against Defiance and Buffalo State while sitting out the Heidelberg game and falling victim to injury against Wilmington. If the Bulldogs are to have a chance he must stay in the game and the Bulldog front seven must shut down Albion's two running backs, Dan Dreyer and Tom Weinmann. The pair combined for 186 rushing yards and three touchdowns in last week's win over Defiance. The key could be turnovers -- both teams have been plagued by them all year.

Franklin (3-1, 1-0 HCAC) at Wilmington (4-0, 1-0): Fans in the region find out if Wilmington is for real, while the team left standing after this one will move on to challenge Wabash and Hanover for the coveted league title and automatic qualifier that goes with it. Grizzly quarterback Travis McMahen hasn't slowed down all season long, as he ranks fifth nationally with 361 yards total offense a game. In last year's shoot-out, the Quakers scored 24 points in the fourth quarter en route to a 55-48 victory. The two teams combined for 11 touchdown passes and 1,046 yards of total offense. Wilmington is coming off a 45-8 win against Mount St. Joseph. Quaker quarterback Adam Ryan completed 19 of 32 passes for 363 yards, while Dorian Glover caught seven passes for 180 yards. Chad Murphy gained 108 yards on 20 carries to help the Quakers amass 534 yards of total offense.