Alma was first alphabetically in Region 4's list this week, but a look at the numbers suggests that, perhaps for this week only, they could have been No. 1 numerically as well. Alma athletics file photo

By Greg Thomas
D3sports.com

Welcome to Regional Rankings week! Wednesday afternoon, the NCAA released the first published set of regional rankings and in doing so dropped the white flag on the 2023 regular season. Those lists, alphabetical as they are, do provide our most definitive look at who is really in play for things like top seeds, home games in the early rounds, and of course, those at-large bids to the tournament. Folks, we’re in the endgame now. 

If this is your first trip through a Division III regular season and you’re wondering why these rankings aren’t ranked, let us explain. In 2021, the NCAA made an Division III-wide decision to not actually rank teams in the first published regional rankings. The heart of the matter is that some primary criteria used for ranking teams doesn’t quite exist yet -- namely, results versus ranked opponents. Because this first data set officially lacks ranked opponent data, the NCAA has decided to forgo a formal ranking. This restriction will not stop Around The Nation -- we’re going to go ahead and apply all of the criteria to this week’s ranked teams and provide you with our third annual set of actually ranked first regional rankings. 

Also changed in 2021 were the number of regions. Prior to 2021, Division III football existed in four regions, conveniently named by the cardinal directions and each region ranked 10 teams. In 2021, Division III football moved to a six-region model and the numbers of teams ranked varied depending on the size of the region. In 2022, the number of ranked teams were flattened to seven teams per region. Given the expansion of Region 2 with the inaugural season of the Landmark Conference, we expected some change to the seven ranked teams per region model and were a little surprised to see that each region has only ranked seven teams. This is bad news for Region 2, which I’ll talk about more below. 

Before we dive into the rankings, a quick aside on Pool C candidates. There are just four Pool C bids (the true at-large bids to the tournament). If you’re a fan of a team clinging to postseason hopes through an at-large invitation and your team isn’t listed this week, the postseason is probably going to have to wait until next year. This is the list of ranked teams this week that could wind up in Pool C as one-loss teams:

Union
Muhlenberg
Berry
Wheaton (Ill.)
Coe
UW-Whitewater
NWC runner-up

And some very strong two loss teams as well:

Salve Regina
Bridgewater (Va.)
Hope
Central
St. John’s

We’re looking at 12 teams chasing four bids without factoring in any kind of conference championship upsets in the next two weeks. I can’t stress enough how exclusive these at-large invitations are and how thin the margins for error are for teams that want to be one of 32 chasing a national championship. 

On to the rankings! 

Region 1

Springfield’s SOS is fantastic and the NEWMAC having three teams ranked is a huge boon for the Pride. Salve Regina and Merchant Marine have a great chance to stick around in these rankings as well. Delaware Valley has pulled off a Houdini act two weeks in a row, but one thing certain to vanish is a potential regionally ranked win- Stevenson and King’s play this week, the loser will pick up a third loss and assuredly fall out of the rankings. Waiting in the wings to jump in- perhaps a one-loss MASCAC leader although UMass-Dartmouth and Bridgewater State both have identical 0.412 SOS figures which rank in the bottom 30 of the division. Keep an eye on Western New England. The Golden Bears are 5-3, but have an outstanding SOS and are 0-3 against ranked opponents. WNE finding their way into the rankings could be golden for Endicott, Susquehanna, and Springfield.

Pool C Watch Alert: Realistically, fans of Pool C teams don’t have much to worry about from Region 1. While nobody has clinched a conference championship yet, should Springfield or Endicott, or Delaware Valley not finish the job, another loss likely ends any realistic playoff hopes. 

Region 2

Region 2 is so loaded. Teams in this region have really figured out how to crank that SOS up and put their teams in great positions to qualify for the tournament, and host games when they get there. Johns Hopkins is ranked first for now, but Susquehanna has some unranked opponents that we might see ranked next week. Western New England mentioned above as well as Brockport. A scenario where Brockport defeats Cortland this week probably knocks Cortland out of the rankings, but a Cortland win in the Cortaca Jug game in Week 11 would definitely put Cortland right back in the rankings. Susquehanna could end up with as many as five wins against ranked teams. That’s undeniable No. 1 seed territory. 

With six conferences in Region 2, these rankings contain six conference leaders and just one other team – Muhlenberg in this case. The seven-team arrangement really short changes Region 2 given the number of teams in the region. Grove City’s criteria are damaged by this. Carnegie Mellon isn’t likely to get anywhere near the tournament barring a lot of chaos happening in the next two weeks. This is a difficult situation for all at-large teams in Region 2. 

Pool C Watch Alert: As mentioned, it really doesn’t look good for Carnegie Mellon, even if the Tartans close out a 9-1 season. There are two teams that have reason for optimism- Muhlenberg and the winner of the Dutchman’s Shoes game between Union and RPI. The Liberty League runner up will present very well with just one loss, multiple games against ranked opponents, and at least one win against a ranked opponent. Pool C fans around the nation  will want to be rooting for Hobart to knock out RPI this week, and then RPI to knock out Union in Week 11 to take the Liberty League at-large contender off the table. Muhlenberg getting stunned again wouldn’t hurt either. 

Region 3

Randolph-Macon is the last Region 3 undefeated team standing and they got a bit of a gift this week seeing both Bridgewater and Washington and Lee ranked. That gives the Yellow Jackets two wins against ranked teams and really solidifies their top spot despite a pedestrian SOS. 

The Trinity and Hardin-Simmons order is one of the most important pieces of these rankings because of the likelihood that these teams are going to play each other if not in the very first round of the tournament, no later than the second round. Their profiles right now are relatively indistinguishable. I’ve given a slight nod to Trinity, but it really is a coin toss when viewing these teams using the NCAA’s criteria. 

Berry has been a hot topic and I have Berry ranked as the second available at-large team in the region right now. Berry’s .450 SOS is a very poor number and it stands out significantly next to Bridgewater’s .582. Berry is an excellent football team that happens to also have a really bad at-large profile and appear to be in search of considerable help if they are to be invited to the field of 32. 

Pool C Watch Alert: Outside of Berry’s situation, there probably isn’t much drama left in Region 3 that will impact the Pool C selections. Conference champions are pretty solidified here. If ETBU can pull off an incredible double and beat UMHB and Hardin-Simmons in Weeks 10 and 11, HSU could be part of the at-large conversation. Fans of at-large teams will be happiest to see Hardin-Simmons secure that ASC automatic bid.  

Region 4

For this week, at least, Alma appears to have the better profile. Mount Union’s SOS will come up enough with this week’s game against John Carroll to be a comfortable choice for No. 1 in the region should the Purple Raiders win. John Carroll, with a loss, won’t go too far. They’re going to be buoyed by Marietta. I expect that the SOS’s will shift around over the last two weeks so that John Carroll, even at 8-2, will be the top at-large team available in Region 4 and would pose an interesting case for the selection committee if the Blue Streaks’ only two losses of the season were to Mount Union and UW-Whitewater. 

The sleeper team here is Hope. A schedule that has included Aurora and Mount St. Joseph has paid huge dividends in their SOS figure and in their results against ranked opponents. They could be a surprise at-large candidate depending on the Region 4 advisory committee feels about John Carroll after this week. 

Pool C Watch Alert: In Region 4, fans of Pool C teams elsewhere will want to root for Alma to finish their season undefeated. An Albion win in Week 11 likely won’t prevent the Scots from advancing on as MIAA champions, but could boost Albion into the rankings, which would give Hope one more win against a ranked opponent, which makes the Flying Dutchmen very formidable in the at-large conversation. Things also stay clean for at-large teams around the country if DePauw wins the Monon Bell game, but DePauw at 9-1 with a poor SOS and no results against ranked opponents isn’t a viable at-large candidate. 

Region 5

Region 5 shows us a second glaring example where the NCAA’s rankings can differ significantly from the D3football.com Top 25 poll. North Central is a unanimous choice as the No. 1 team in Division III by our voters, however, by the NCAA’s primary selection criteria, it’s difficult to argue that Wartburg doesn’t have the stronger measurables. When all of the data comes in and North Central has added a second ranked win in Week 11 vs. Augustana along with the SOS boost that will come along with that game, my hunch is that these profiles will be close enough to boost North Central to their more familiar No. 1 spot. 

The positions of Wheaton and Coe should be watched closely over the last two rankings. Both are heavy favorites to finish 9-1, but only one of them can be considered in the at-large pool at a time. The team that is ranked higher after Week 11’s action will have a significantly higher chance of being selected than the team that is ranked lower and will have to hope there is still room in the field when their name can finally enter the selection conversation. In previous seasons, I may have reviewed Coe’s “results” versus ranked opponents (an 8-point win over Central and a 6-point loss to Wartburg) more favorably than Wheaton’s “results” versus ranked opponents (a 7-point win against Augustana and a 19-point loss to North Central), but the committee chair Matt Moore was clear in ATN Podcast Episode 340 that digging into those results in that way is not allowed. That’s a break for Wheaton and may be the difference between the Thunder playing in the NCAA tournament or the Thunder playing in the Isthmus Bowl. 

The Midwest Conference is absent from these rankings. Monmouth has a good SOS, but their two losses are probably one too many to make the rankings this year. Lake Forest and Illinois College really needed to be undefeated to be ranked given their low SOS numbers. 

Pool C Watch Alert:  Pool C watchers have a lot to be worried about here. Wheaton is more or less in the barn with one loss. Coe is as well. Both teams will be big players in the Pool  C conversation. Wheaton fans will be watching UW-Oshkosh’s last two weeks with great interest. If the Titans can close their season with wins against UW-Platteville and UW-River Falls, Oshkosh may sneak into the bottom of the Region 6 rankings and give Wheaton another win against a ranked opponent. That piece of data would all but seal Wheaton’s spot in the tournament – as well as knock River Falls out of contention. 

Region 6

UW-La Crosse defeated UW-Whitewater head to head and are presumptive favorites at this point to win the WIAC championship. So how did Whitewater end up on top of these rankings? WIAC play excludes the non-conference season, which the NCAA’s primary criteria do not do. The non-conference games count, and nobody has made those non-conference games count more than the Warhawks. With wins over ranked teams John Carroll and St. John’s, in addition to a ranked win over UW-River Falls, the Warhawks have accumulated three wins against ranked opponents. Their lone loss also came to a ranked opponent (UW-L). Whitewater boasts the second best SOS in the country, .061 higher than La Crosse, which is a significant difference. Given the significant advantages UW-W has when compared to UW-L, I’m comfortable with this ranking that goes against the head to head result. Whitewater’s SOS will fall some over their last two games and La Crosse has an opportunity to significantly boost their profile with a win against River Falls, so some of those Whitewater advantages may be lessened by the time we get through Week 11. 

Everyone who was quick to dismiss St. John’s as a playoff contender after their loss to Gustavus Adolphus may have left the party too soon. St. John’s has an excellent SOS and if they can hold on to their ranked wins versus Trinity (this feels very safe) and Bethel (which will require Bethel to win the MIAC championship), the Johnnies, incredibly look more likely than not to be in the field. How’s that for Johnnie Magic?

The Northwest Conference boasts a pair of undefeated teams, but even with perfect win percentages, it’s hard to place teams with sub-.500 SOS’s and no results against ranked opponents higher. 

Pool C Watch Alert: Teams in the at-large pool will be hoping that St. John’s picks up another loss either this week against St. Olaf or in the MIAC crossover week, probably against Augsburg. The Johnnies beat Augsburg 27-24 earlier this year, so this could be within reach. The best case scenario for Pool C teams watching the WIAC race is probably to be rooting for La Crosse to run the table. That will get Whitewater in the field through Pool C, but that’s better than a WIAC tri-championship, where River Falls qualifies through Pool A, and Whitewater and La Crosse are both viable Pool C candidates. Unless Eau Claire or Stevens Point can do the unthinkable and defeat Whitewater, the Warhawks are getting in to this tournament. 

On tap 

It’s Week 10 and the regular season is barrelling toward its exciting conclusion. D3football.com is here to get you ready for the playoffs with our weeklong coverage of all of the happenings around the division. Here’s what you can watch for every week at D3football.com:

• Tomorrow: Quick Hits featuring our panel’s predictions and insights into this weekend’s games

• Saturday: Game day. Head over to our scoreboard for links to video and stats for all of the games!. 

• Sunday: New Top 25 poll 

• Monday: Around The Nation podcast. Pat Coleman and Greg Thomas recap the weekend that was and preview the weekend to come in Division III football.

• Tuesday/Wednesday: Team of the Week honors, features columns

• Thursday: Around the Nation column

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Small college football is actually pretty massive. Division III is home to 241 teams, many thousands of student-athletes and coaches. There are so many more stories out there than I can find on my own. Please share your stories that make Division III football so special for all of us! Reach out to me at greg.thomas@d3sports.com or on X @wallywabash to share your stories.