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| Are the Blue Jays a surprise, or a disappointment? Photo by Dan Hunter, d3photography.com |
By Greg Thomas
D3sports.com
After a 23-month wait, we made it. Playoff football is back! On Sunday the 2021 Division III playoff field was revealed and this year there were some surprise selections. D3football.com projected Ithaca and Hardin-Simmons to make the field, while the selection committee chose Bethel and Johns Hopkins instead. Disappointing omissions for fans of the Bombers and Cowboys, but omissions that are understandable given the NCAA's final set of regional rankings.
It's a hard lesson, but one learned every season by a handful of teams that had great seasons and missed by just a field goal here or knocked down pass there - good teams get left out of this tournament every year. Unforutnately, the field isn't big enough to accommodate 27 conference champions as well as all of the high quality one and two-loss runners up around the division. This field is one of the more exclusive fields in college sports, and earning a spot in the field is worth celebrating whether you're in it for the 32nd time or the very first time.
After two trips to Texas, the road to the Stagg Bowl ends in Canton, Ohio for the first time. Will Mount Union return to the biggest stage, this time in their own backyard? There are no shortage of challengers, including the defending champions on their half of the bracket.
Before we get to Canton, there is plenty of content here at D3football.com to get you ready for the 2021 playoffs. Our team capsules are live, and our Quick Hits panel will be back tomorrow to predict the score of every first round game.
As is tradition here at ATN, we're going to take a deep dive into each of the four corners of the 2021 Division III playoff bracket. To do that, we bring a panel of D3football.com experts to break down each region of the bracket. Can one of the at-large teams run away with the title the way North Central did in 2019? Which under the radar team can spring a first round surprise like Chapman did in the last tournament? Which team will fall short of expectations, or fail to live up to its regular season performance?
Our postseason panel consists of Publisher and Executive Editor Pat Coleman, National Columnist Emeritus Keith McMillan, In the Huddle host and Stagg Bowl Sideline Reporter Frank Rossi, Senior Editor Ryan Tipps, Around the Nation Columnist Emeritus Adam Turer, and me, the Around the Nation Columnist. Before we get to our score predictions on Friday, we took a deep look at each quadrant of the bracket.
For each region, we picked one team that will surprise, one that will disappoint, and one that will make it through to the national semifinals.
Nobody on the panel consulted with one another; each person did his part independently. The panelists are spread out across the country, so hopefully any perception of bias balances out.
ST. JOHN'S BRACKET
Surprises
Ryan: Huntingdon. I think the Hawks advance out of Round 1, and I fully understand if anyone recalls the 48-9 loss from the last time they played Birmingham-Southern and thinks I’m crazy. I am, I’ll give you that. But also, Huntingdon fully imploded in a single quarter the first time these two teams met, an anomaly that I don’t see repeating itself. Both teams have run-heavy, statistically Top 25 offenses. A surprise pass play here and there will significantly change the dynamic and make this a much harder road for BSC than previously.
Frank: Trinity (Texas) will challenge UMHB well. This is going to be a closer First Round matchup than most expect, as Trinity has defied most expectations this season with consistent play and a good offensive and defensive balance. It’ll be a good test for UMHB early.
Adam: Lake Forest, for a half. The Foresters will have us raise eyebrows at the scoreboard, before the Johnnies pull away.
Greg: Trinity (Texas). Maybe the biggest loser in the Hardin-Simmons omission is Trinity, who will have to go to Belton instead of serving as a well-deserved first round host. I do believe the SAA is a sufficiently rugged conference to have prepared Trinity for this game. The Tigers may not leave Crusader Stadium with a win, but I do expect they'll take the Crusaders to final moments.
Keith: Linfield. While the eye naturally gravitates toward top-seeded St. John's, which allowed just 24 points against its seven non-Aurora, non-Bethel opponents, and No. 2 seed Mary Hardin-Baylor, the No. 1 team in the country on 7 of 25 D3football.com top 25 ballots, the Wildcats could stun us all. Outscoring opponents roughly 53-12, we really have no idea how good this Linfield team is because no one's come anywhere close to beating them. I'm not sure there's a quarterback in the country with more experience than Wyatt Smith, so if you prefer to lean on such details when looking for teams that will advance in the postseason ... don't say you didn't hear it here first.
Pat: Can I pick Linfield to surprise? I pick Linfield to surprise. I mean, some people may be surprised.
Disappointments
Ryan: Trinity. The Tigers deserved a home game right out of the gate, but that’s not how Division III works. And not only is this an excruciating way to debut in the 2021 postseason, I think UMHB is going to have the run of the field against the Tigers, and they isn’t going to look like the team they should be.
Frank: Two immediate undefeated-vs.-undefeated matchups. It’s just not fair to force undefeated teams to play other undefeated teams in the first round. Lake Forest’s matchup was avoidable — the Committee should’ve flipped a team from the lower-right bracket into the Foresters’ slot.
Adam: The committee. Trinity should have been rewarded for winning the SAA. Instead, they'll be one-and-done in Belton.
Greg: St. John's. The Johnnies may have played their way past UW-Whitewater in the Region 6 rankings and into a #1 seed, but their reward was a rugged path to the semifinals. Not one but two teams lurk in this quadrant that I have ranked higher than St. John's, and the Johnnies will have to beat them both to win the region.
Keith: St. John's. I'm not saying the Johnnies will definitely disappoint, as they seem as loaded on defense as some of the all-time great teams in their storied history. But St. John's fans can't love being in a bracket with Linfield, UMHB and UW-Whitewater standing in the way, just to get *to* the Stagg Bowl. Although, given that there was no St. Thomas game to give the Johnnies a push this year (shout out Bethel for stepping in and doing double duty) maybe they'll be thrilled to say we ran through the most obstacle-filled course possible and won it all.
Pat: Ugh. Uhm, pass. I'm done dealing with obnoxious fans for a while.
Last team standing
Ryan: UMHB. And that UMHB/St. John’s matchup is going to be the best No. 1 vs. No. 2 game in the entire playoffs.
Frank: UMHB. The early test proves useful, and Kyle King’s foot will improve in time for the St. John’s battle.
Adam: UMHB. The Cru allowed just 85 points all season, and 28 of those were in one game. UMHB's recipe has worked before--it doesn't matter who starts at quarterback as long as the defense and ground game punish opponents.
Greg: Linfield. I do think Linfield is currently the best team in this quadrant. The Wildcats have the best quarterback in this quadrant and if Wyatt Smith is on his game, I believe Linfield can crash the semifinal party for the first time in a long time.
Keith: Linfield. I'm sure the others will go heavy on UMHB and maybe Pat will take the Johnnies -- the man has to go out in public in Minnesota, after all. But I think I talked myself into a little West Coast surprise.
Pat: Linfield. I understand why they haven't gotten higher in our poll, but they are higher on my ballot.
UW-WHITEWATER BRACKET
Surprises
Ryan: Central. Few (if any) teams would have as difficult a path to the Stagg Bowl as Central does, with opening rounds that align against Bethel and Wheaton. Few other teams, however, I think could actually do as well as the Dutch could do. I mean, they have the most lofty offense in all of D-III, and the strength of their conference is deeper than most, so they’ve had a regular cadence of stiff competition throughout the season. Expect a good run in the playoffs.
Frank: Central. The Dutch have looked good since the spring, but nobody really knew how good until the midpoint of this season. I foresee them winning this pod by beating Wheaton in the second round. It’s a surprise because I didn’t see Central as being this team in 2019.
Adam: Rose-Hulman. The Fightin' Engineers have a short in-state trip to face a DePauw team coming off of a crushing rivalry loss in Week 11. Rose-Hulman notches the first playoff win in program history.
Greg: DePauw. Or Rose-Hulman. Both of these teams had to have jumped out of their Selection Sunday sportswear when this pairing popped up. Both teams have profiles of teams that we would expect to travel to someplace like North Central or Whitewater or Mount Union. Not only did they avoid those titans, they each get a game home (or 30 miles from home) against an opponent of pretty equal caliber. One team is going to win a playoff game for the first time in program history- and I don't think we would have expected that prior to Sunday.
Keith: Wheaton. If you see this bracket as Whitewater's to cruise through, think again. Sure, the first two games could be gobsmackingly easy for the Warhawks, but if Wheaton -- currently the No. 3 team on my top 25 ballot -- can get past the Central/Bethel winner, it will have a shot to knock off a purple power. Sure, there wasn't much on Wheaton's schedule outside the North Central game, but they dominated everyone but the defending champions, and had the ball on the 17-yard line down 7 late in the fourth quarter of an eventual 20-7 loss to NCC. Whitewater likes push teams around while pounding the rock, but Wheaton's strength is its D-Line, behind Dallas McRae, Jake Holaday and River Shindledecker. (Yes, that's a real player's name.) Aurora in Round 1 and the game in Round 2 might not be easy, but neither would be Wheaton for Whitewater in the quarters.
Pat: Central. Not a surprise by the seedings but I think they have a chance to outperform their relative ranking. If not, they at least can do better against Wheaton than they did in 2019, assuming the teams meet again.
Disappointments
Ryan: Bethel. Perhaps this is to be expected with me picking Central earlier in the section, but there have been some achingly close moments in this season for the Royals. And one more disappointment seems to be in store.
Frank: Bethel. The Royals could prove that two-loss teams should get more looks in Pool C, but their draw of Central will likely have them fall in the first round — giving nay-sayers some better talking points.
Adam: Central. A tough draw for one of the most dominant teams during the regular season. The Dutch boast the top offense in the nation but will face a gauntlet of top defenses in their quadrant. That is, if they make it out of round one.
Greg: Aurora. After the near miss at St. John's in 2019, and again in Week 1 of 2021, I thought that Aurora was poised to give some middle-seeded team absolute fits in the first round and be a not-so-surprising Round 1 winner. Then they got paired with Wheaton. While the Thunder are technically a middle-seeded team, they're on my short list of elite tier teams that can win the title -- and probably one level too high for the Spartans to overcome.
Keith: Central. I'm not at all down on the Dutch; remember in 2019 Central beat WIAC champ UW-Oshkosh in an epic first-round matchup. But I feel this disaster of a quadrant is setting Central up for disappointment. The Dutch have mowed down everything in their way this season, and the reward is a first-round game against a team that's neck-and-neck with St. John's, a potential second-round game with a team neck-and-neck with North Central, and UW-Whitewater. And I know Greencastle and Terre Haute are less than an hour apart, but what the heck is this Rose-Hulman at DePauw matchup of 8-2 teams in Round 1? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the committee submitted different matchups, and the penny-pinchers sent it back for revisions. It'd explain the next-door-neighbor game between Wheaton and Aurora too. The Dutch deserved better than a home game against a MIAC team fully capable of pulling the upset in Round 1.
Pat: Bethel. They play St. John's tough and know St. John's well. Central fires on all cylinders and then some but I will be interested to see how that goes against a team which is definitely hardened by a tougher schedule.
Last team standing
Ryan: UW-Whitewater. Best team from the best conference. ‘Nuff said.
Frank: UW-Whitewater. Their WIAC schedule made them battle-tested for this bracket. I can’t see them falling to any team in this grouping.
Adam: UW-Whitewater. This region is a juggernaut, featuring two worthy Pool C contenders and the nation's leading offense. The Warhawks are the most battle-tested of the bunch and will find their way back to the final four.
Greg: Wheaton. Wheaton was my pick at the beginning of the year to win the national championship. A Wheaton at UW-Whitewater game for the regional championship would be about as good as it gets in the quarterfinal round.
Keith: Wheaton. OMG, I did it again, I talked myself into going away from the top seed.
Pat: UW-Whitewater. All the drama and interest on the other half of the bracket is overshadowed by a powerful team in purple.
NORTH CENTRAL BRACKET
Surprises
Ryan: RPI. The road underdog right out of the gate, they’ll be forced to rely on their defense as they have all season. One, and even two, wins are manageable for the Engineers, but there will be no getting past North Central. Still, some success here will go a long way to bolstering this team -- which wasn’t on anyone’s radars early in the season.
Frank: Albion. UW-La Crosse is a great team, but folks seem to be sleeping on the potency of the Albion offense. The Brits will keep this game close enough to potentially pull out a major upset Saturday.
Adam: Cortland and RPI will meet in the second round in a battle of teams who defeated Ithaca by a combined four points. The Engineers played in six games this season decided by four points or fewer, winning five. The Red Dragons will make sure this one isn't close.
Greg: RPI. The Engineers have scrapped and clawed their way to nine wins and a Liberty League championship. Seniors on this team made a run to the 2017 quarterfinal in a similarly understated fashion and I think they've got a chance to bookend their careers with trips to the round of 8.
Keith: Cortland. The Red Dragons had been allowing fewer than 7 points per game before they needed to rally from two scores down to overcome rival Ithaca in Week 11. In a sense, that sets them up perfectly to go into the playoffs, confident they can win big or close. And while I still think North Central is loaded and wins this bracket, a potential UW-LaCrosse visit in Round 2 and clash with 12-0 Cortland in the quarters could at least make it interesting. North Central's success is also instructive: We all said the CCIW can't get over the hump until a team went and did it. So we will still say a northeastern team can't get over the hump and make a Stagg breakthrough, but one of these years one will. Why not Cortland?
Pat: UW-La Crosse. I mean, the committee put them on the road, so I can take them as a surprise, right?
Disappointments
Ryan: UW-La Crosse. Let’s be honest: Even though Albion is the home team in Round 1, La Crosse is the favorite. Rankings, conference prestige, it’s all in the Eagles’ favor. But I fear that LaCrosse has squeaked by more times than people realize, and Albion isn’t unfamiliar with playing WIAC teams. And the threat of North Central around the corner doesn’t help.
Frank: RPI playing AT Endicott. RPI President Shirley Jackson finally did the right thing: she eased draconian COVID restrictions to allow hosting rights to be bestowed on the Engineers. Unfortunately, the committee failed to reward the school for the right move — and instead feels all regions and their rankings are directly comparable. This wasn’t a good look for the committee, and RPI has a right to be disappointed with this move.
Adam: UW-La Crosse. That's a very tough draw for a very good team. The WIAC runner-up certainly has a case to be in the lower half of a quadrant with a clearer path to the quarterfinals, but instead will face the number one team in the country in round two.
Greg: Albion. I'm not sure there are enough Thomas brothers on the roster for the Britons to overcome a significant physical advantage in the trenches. Despite being the higher seed, Albion's season will likely end this weekend at Sprankle-Sprandel Stadium.
Keith: Albion and Endicott. Both teams have had great seasons and get to host in Round 1. But if we're using the top 25 as our guide, the Britons get a visit from No. 11 UW-La Crosse and the Gulls will see No. 18 RPI, which means we consider the unranked hosts to be home underdogs. And voters would be expecting disappointing ends to the season.
Pat: RPI. Or Cortland. Not sure which of those two teams wins in the second round, if they meet.
Last team standing
Ryan: North Central. In those years when Mount Union gets plugged into the “East” bracket, people were critical that their path to the Stagg Bowl was too easy. For what it’s worth, North Central is the one with the easiest path out of its quadrant in 2021.
Frank: North Central. Nobody in this bracket has the horses to dethrone the reigning Stagg Bowl champion.
Adam: North Central. Ethan Greenfield and Andrew Kamienski remain the most potent D-III RB/WR combo since ______________. Steady quarterback play will be the key. Having a championship pedigree gives the Cardinals an edge.
Greg: North Central. The Cardinals leveled up after (or maybe during?) their 2019 second round win at Mount Union. This team has pretty much obliterated every team in their path and much of that 2019 team remains in place. The second round matchup against UW-La Crosse is intriguing, but looks like the only potential roadblock in a return to the semifinals.
Keith: North Central. The Cardinals are every bit as loaded as in 2019. Sure, Broc Rutter will be watching instead of flinging touchdown passes, but the defense has been more or less impenetrable, at least until the game is 40 or 50 points out of hand. The road gets tougher on the trek to Canton, but I'd be surprised if the Cardinals don't end up getting a taste of Ohio one way or another.
Pat: North Central. This part of the bracket is doable for the Cardinals, for sure.
MOUNT UNION BRACKET
Surprises
Ryan: Muhlenberg. This is more than believing Muhlenberg has a chance to win in Round 1 -- that much is a given -- this is about the fact that I think the Mules can be competitive with Mount Union three Saturdays from now. Both Framingham’s and Del Val’s defenses will pose obstacles to Muhlenberg, but there’s enough balance on offense, defense and special teams to elevate this squad.
Frank: Muhlenberg. Sometimes, the best way to teach youth on your front lines how to improve is with a loss. Since the loss to Ursinus, the Mules haven’t missed a beat, taking the lessons and applying them to running the table since with some ease. They’ll get a date with Mount Union.
Adam: Muhlenberg. Delaware Valley's defense has been one of the most impressive and probably the most underrated units in the nation. The Aggies allow just 5.7 points per game! The Mules scoring more than half of the 57 points previously allowed this season by DelVal will be a surprise.
Greg: Muhlenberg. Muhlenberg has been terrific after the stunning regular season loss to Ursinus. They'll have to solve Delaware Valley's top-rated defense, but a regional final game in Alliance is an interesting propostion. Mount Union isn't far removed from showing some vulnerability in a narrow win against Ohio Northern and there may be something here for Michael Hnatkowsky to exploit as the Mules look for a return to the final four.
Keith: Salisbury and Delaware Valley. Okay, so this isn't the toughest road to Canton for Mount Union, and you could conspiracy theorize that the Stagg Bowl hosts wouldn't want it other way. But this is a typical Eastern playoff quadrant, where committee can't or won't import a Linfield or Mary Hardin-Baylor or Wheaton out to the bracket with the Purple Raiders in it. But the Sea Gulls have only one loss -- a respectable home defeat against UW-Whitewater -- and senior QB Jack Lanham operating the triple-option offense. The Aggies were similarly respectable clashing with North Central in 2019, and although they're missing a defensive star, they shouldn't be a total pushover for Mount Union.
Pat: Johns Hopkins.
Disappointments
Ryan: Salisbury. Beyond the early September game against UW-Whitewater, I don’t feel like the Gulls have been sufficiently challenged lately. They were the only NJAC team above .500 this season, and I’m not confident they’ll be ready for the aggressive passing attack that JHU delivers.
Frank: Salisbury. The Sea Gulls took the risk of scheduling UW-Whitewater, and it ended up creating their bracketing — forcing a Second Round matchup (and likely exit) vs. Mount Union. I hate seeing those scheduling reaches come back to haunt teams this time of year.
Adam: Johns Hopkins. The Blue Jays received a coveted and controversial at-large berth into the tournament and anything short of a victory will add fuel to the fire for fans of Ithaca and Hardin-Simmons. Unfortunately, Salisbury looks like a team on a mission that could put a crooked number up on the scoreboard.
Greg: Salisbury. Tricky draw for the Sea Gulls as they are going to need to drum up a significant amount of offense to outpace Johns Hopkins. Jack Lanham was in action for the NJAC champions last weekend for the first time in a little while, but I do have concerns about Lanham's playing status. When healthy, he's probably the best dual threat option quarterback in the division- Salisbury will need the full Lanham to keep pace with the Blue Jays, and I'm just not sure they're going to have it.
Keith: Anna Maria. This is going to come off like a backhanded compliment, so let me first acknowledge the job Dan Mulrooney is doing with the AmCats. The program had 12 wins in 11 seasons before rocketing to 7-2 and the first playoff berth in school history this season. Anything other than an utter drubbing at Delaware Valley would be a shock, but that's okay. There are levels to this, and Anna Maria has clearly leveled up. So, depending on perspective, maybe this will be no disappointment at all.
Pat: Salisbury. I am solely basing this on how far down the NJAC was this year. Salisbury played UW-Whitewater decently but that game was a long time ago and not having a competitive team in the NJAC such as Wesley or long-lost Frostburg State could prove to be a problem.
Last team standing
Ryan: Mount Union. Though the Purple Raiders will be challenged along the way.
Frank: Mount Union. Muhlenberg will play them close, but Mount won’t let 2019 repeat itself.
Adam: Mount Union. The Purple Raiders will put themselves in position to play for a championship just down the road from campus. They also appear to have the path of least resistance, at least on paper.
Greg: Mount Union. I sure used a lot of words to build up Muhlenberg to make this pick. Could Mount Union lose? Sure. It would still be a big surprise.
Keith: Mount Union. Expect the bajillionth visit to the national semifinals in a baj -- basically every year except 2019. After that though, I genuinely have no idea how the Purple Raiders -- whose playoff experience is limited beyond a few familiar faces such as Josh Petrucelli and Kordell Ford -- fare.
Pat: Mount Union.
