It should have been simple, really.
Week 11 featured a handful of minor upsets in showdown games, but
other than that it was as straightforward as a 22 Dive. None of the
four three- and four-way tie scenarios came to pass, nobody that
was expected to clinch in Pool A played its way into Pool C, and
only one team with strong at-large hopes (Dickinson) played its way
out of the potential field.
Pool B required almost no deliberation to settle on three teams,
and including the automatics, the first 26 teams in clustered
fairly neatly around the potential No. 1 seeds. The qualifying
teams offered enough geographic flexibility to respect the emphasis
on pairing teams within 500 miles of each other to avoid flying.
And the normal problem areas, like having highly ranked conference
rivals in Texas being forced to play in the first round, were
absent.
Yet the selection committee – which includes several members
who deserve great respect for their years of service to the game
– managed to throw us this wounded duck:
A seedless playoff bracket.
Say what?
Officially, NCAA assistant director of championships Shonna Brown
is replying to e-mail inquiries regarding the lack of seeds like
so:
“This has always been the case with Division III, as you can
look at any official bracket from the past and you will not see
seeds. This was not an oversight or mistake, however [it] is the
division’s philosophy.”
Maybe so. But as Pat Coleman explains on The Daily Dose, since
1999, seeds have been provided to us by the committee. So while
technically the official brackets did not list seeds, they
weren’t just magically appearing on unofficial brackets
either.
Pat also has an email from a past committee chair listing seed
numbers for teams that were used to determine who hosted a
semifinal game. In addition, one year the seed numbers were given
to ESPN for use in the selection show.
Hosting scenarios for Round 2 have been provided by Brown and the
committee (scroll to Pat’s Nov. 17, 4:52 p.m. comment on the
link above), so on one hand, the lack of seeds is much ado about
nothing. For next week, we can infer who is seeded where from those
scenarios.
Yet, furnishing scenarios instead of seeds to D3football.com means
we can’t yet determine potential sites for quarterfinal and
semifinal matchups (rounds 3 and 4). Based on information from a
source with knowledge of how the selection committee works, there
does appear to be a reason for this.
Not all schools bid to host playoff games, as we've known from the
past, and not all flights are created equal. In other words, the
500-mile limit for bus trips, after which the NCAA picks up the tab
for a team’s air travel, is not the only concern. The costs
of a charter flight can increase significantly the longer it is.
Sending UMHB to Central, let’s say, at less than 900 miles,
is preferred to sending them to Maine Maritime, more than 2,100
miles away.
What I think this all means is that a pecking order exists,
whether it’s called seeding or not. That pecking order might
not be the same order the teams would be in based solely on
football-related factors. It also might mean that someone prominent
did not file the paperwork to host, either accidentally or on
purpose, and they do not want make an issue of it if the team
doesn’t advance anyway.
The strangest thing about this all might be that this year’s
selection committee -- Rowan AD Joy Solomen, Springfield coach Mike
DeLong, Illinois Wesleyan coach Norm Eash, OAC Commissioner Tim
Gleason, ODAC Commissioner Brad Bankston, Grove City coach Chris
Smith, Knox AD Chad Eisele and Redlands coach Mike Maynard –
is virtually the same as last year’s. Defiance AD Dick Kaiser
was the chair; he and Trinity (Texas) coach Steve Mohr were on the
committee in place of Gleason and Bankston.
It seems odd that a Kaiser-led committee of virtually the same
makeup would provide seeds, and a Solomen-led committee would hold
fast to what Brown says is Division III’s habit. But then
again, the two committees seem to disagree on the playoff
worthiness of two-loss teams from strong conferences as well, so
maybe it’s not all that odd.
In any case, committee participation is 100% volunteer work.
It’s a thankless job performed by men and women who must
anticipate, and be able to handle, a certain level of
criticism.
Which brings me to my second point.
The other major surprise on selection Sunday was the inclusion of
Washington & Jefferson in the playoff field. While there are
disagreeing factions on who would have been more deserving than the
Presidents, they appeared after Saturday’s games to be last
among seven one-loss teams going by the NCAA’s published
criteria, and perhaps even behind some of the two-loss teams in the
race for the six at-large bids.
In the interest of getting the best teams in the field, judging by
the post-Week 11 poll, the committee seems to have done a good job
with the Presidents. The six Pool C selections, all teams who went
9-1 with a loss to their automatic-qualifying conference champion,
were No. 7 Mary Hardin-Baylor, No. 10 St. Thomas, No. 15 Wabash,
No. 20 W&J, No. 25 Coe and Albright, third among teams
receiving votes, or 28th. St. Norbert did not receive a vote.
Yet the Green Knights had a .491 strength of schedule number,
which is obtained by taking two-thirds opponents winning percentage
(OWP) and one-third opponents’ opponents’ winning
percentage (OOWP). SoS is among the official selection committee
criteria, while top 25 ranking is not. St. Norbert’s SoS far
outshined W&J’s .433, which was worst among the Pool Cs.
St. Thomas (.528), Wabash and Albright (.527 each), Coe (.513) and
Mary Hardin-Baylor (.463) compared favorably.
Remarkably, only Albright had a win against a team that was likely
in the final regional rankings (also official criteria), though
Wabash’s win against DePauw might also qualify. Each of the
seven one-loss Pool C candidates lost to a regionally-ranked
automatic qualifier.
In layman’s terms, this means no more than two of the seven
9-1 teams in the front of the line for the six at-large bids
actually beat anyone of consequence.
Going one step further than SoS numbers, compare the seven
teams’ records against winning teams:
Albright, 3-1: Beat 8-2 Lebanon Valley, 6-4
Wilkes, 6-4 Ursinus; Lost to 10-0 Delaware Valley
St. Norbert, 3-1: Beat 7-3 Ripon, 6-4 Beloit, 6-4
Wartburg; Lost to 10-0 Monmouth
Wabash, 2-1: Beat 8-2 Allegheny, 7-2 DePauw; Lost
to 10-0 Wittenberg
Coe, 2-1: Beat 6-4 Augustana, 6-4 Wartburg; Lost
to 10-0 Central
UMHB, 2-1: Beat 7-3 Louisiana College, 6-4
Hardin-Simmons; Lost to 8-2 Mississippi College (Also beat two NAIA
teams who did not have winning records)
St. Thomas, 1-1: Beat 7-3 Bethel; Lost to 10-0
St. John’s
W&J, 1-1: Beat 7-3 Geneva; Lost to 10-0
Thomas More
Of the five primary criteria, in addition to win pct. and SoS,
results of head-to-head games, against common opponents and against
regionally ranked teams are considered, all with an in-region
focus.
Long story short, there’s a pretty strong case that on the
criteria, among the 9-1 teams, W&J -- which has the worst SoS
and no advantage on the other four criteria -- is the least
impressive.
So how did the Presidents get in?
Officially, as relayed to us by committee chair Joy
Solomen, the committee more strongly weighed the one-third
(OOWP) than the two-thirds (OWP), which put W&J (.499) ahead of
St. Norbert (.473), and factored in the Presidents’ loss to
Thomas More, No. 2 in the South Region rankings, and the Green
Knights’ loss to Monmouth, No. 5 in the West Region.
But that’s straying from the criteria, or at least
interpreting the handbook differently than the public has. Then
again, there are those who believe selection committees should be
afforded such latitude, in order to get the right teams in the
field when the criteria doesn’t necessarily accomplish
that.
Here are three non-criteria ways to favor W&J over St.
Norbert:
1. Conference strength. The PAC came in 13th in the Kickoff '09
ranking of 27 conferences, while the MWC was 19th. And the gap has
been wider in previous seasons. Given that SoS is such a big factor
and yet so little of the schedule is left to the teams’
choice, perhaps the committee should be able to adjust.
2. Margin of victory. The Presidents were 7 points from being a
10-0 automatic qualifier, losing to Thomas More 14-7. In 2006, I
was totally in the tank for 9-1 Cortland State, a 14-7 overtime
loser to AQ winner Rowan, and 9-1 Franklin, a 21-14 loser to Mt.
St. Joseph, when both were left out of the field. So don’t
the Presidents deserve to be in on this basis, especially when St.
Norbert (52-24 loser to Monmouth), Albright (45-16 loser to Del
Val) and Coe (24-6 loser to Central) don’t measure up? (St.
Thomas, UMHB and Wabash each lost by a field goal, the Tommies in
overtime)
3. Respect for past achievements. Both the Presidents and Green
Knights have been hugely successful in their conferences, but only
one team won two playoff games and went to the national
quarterfinals last season. Coupled with the No. 20 ranking vs.
not-even-receiving a vote, did the committee do the right thing in
taking W&J over St. Norbert?
The most significant concern regarding the Pool C selections is
not really that W&J got in over St. Norbert and the gang, but
that only one-loss teams were selected this year.
The committee has indicated to the rest of Division III that all
wins are equal. If a team can get nine of them, it is insured
against failing to earn its automatic bid, no matter who those nine
wins are against. Or, if a team can limit itself to only one loss,
it
There really should be more outrage(better word?) about this. The
fallout should be early-season mismatches and a lack of
high-profile teams willing to face each other in non-conference
play. There is very little incentive for a team to risk losing a
game when there is no reward for winning it.
In a year when at least four powerful two-loss teams compared
favorably on the playoff criteria beyond winning percentage, the
fact that none of them made the field is disconcerting.
Remember above where we listed the Pool C selections’
rankings? 7-10-15-20-25-28?
No. 13 Ohio Northern, No. 17 North Central, No. 21 Willamette and
No. 23 Otterbein stack up rather well. Kean (3 poll votes) could
have been considered too.
Witness; the record-vs.-winning teams chart above, re-created:
North Central, 5-2: Beat 7-3 Wheaton, 7-3
Carthage, 6-4 Augustana, 6-4 Millikin, 6-4 Benedictine; Lost to 9-1
Illinois Wesleyan, 8-2 Ohio Northern.
Otterbein, 2-1: Beat 8-2 Ohio Northern, 7-3
Capital; Lost to 10-0 Mount Union
Ohio Northern, 2-2: Beat 8-2 North Central, 7-3
Capital; Lost to 10-0 Mount Union, 8-2 Otterbein
Kean, 2-2: Beat 7-3 Cortland State, 7-3 Rowan;
Lost to 10-0 Delaware Valley, 9-1 Montclair State
Willamette, 1-1: Beat 8-1 Cal Lutheran; Lost to
9-0 Linfield
If wins were being counted by quality as well as quantity, these
five 8-2 teams could make cases against the 9-1 teams that got in.
Ohio Northern and Cal Lutheran were likely in the regional
rankings, helping the teams who had poor SoS numbers (Otterbein,
.466; Willamette, .473). The teams here without wins over
regionally ranked opponents had strong SoS numbers (North Central,
.573; ONU, .538; Kean .518). Springfield (7-2 in-region, .568) and
St. John Fisher (6-1; .595) did too.
Yet it appears W&J had it figured out the whole time. Why
expose yourself to a potential nonconference loss when you can
schedule Oberlin (2-8) and Frostburg State (1-9) instead?
If Kean had found someone it could beat instead of playing 10-0
Delaware Valley in Week 1, seems like it would have been in. If
North Central hadn’t bothered with Ohio Northern,
they’d have been a lock. Conversely, if W&J had opened up
with Mount Union and lost, they’d have been in the two-loss,
no-chance group.
Although there will always be teams on the bubble, and those with
two losses only have themselves to blame (Otterbein is a lock if
not for stumbling against 3-7 Marietta in Week 9, as is Willamette
if it doesn’t begin the year with a 24-17 loss at 5-5
Concordia-Moorhead) it’s also true that a two-loss team that
doesn’t win its AQ puts itself at the mercy of the entire
division.
In years where the Pool C field is weak or there’s a Week 11
collapse by several teams in line for at-large bids, one of the
five two-loss teams above is in good shape. In 2009, seven 9-1
teams in 23 AQ conferences angled for six spots. You have to go all
the way back to 2000, when 8-2 ONU edged 9-1 Ripon, for the last
time ATN remembers a committee putting a team with two overall
losses in while a one-loss team was on the board.
In any case, W&J gets no great reward for being the perceived
last team in. Though it’s got great backstory because of the
ties between the two programs, playing at Mount Union in the first
round is as close to a sure loss as one can find. The last time the
Purple Raiders lost a playoff opener was 1990 against eventual
champion Allegheny.
By noon Saturday, all will be forgotten. The equipment at St.
Norbert will be packed away, Kean will be hosting Ursinus in an
ECAC bowl and the rest of us will be focused on the 16 playoff
games set to get underway.
Before we bring in Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps and Frank Rossi, from
our Stagg Bowl broadcast crew, to look at what might surprise and
disappoint us in each of the four playoff brackets, let’s
continue an annual ATN tradition.
Going beyond the bracket itself to break down what these matchups really mean and what route we'll take on the five-week trip to Salem, ATN presents its fifth annual set of pre-playoff observations. Pat, Ryan Tipps and I will also provide game-by-game score predictions Friday morning in the Triple Take on our blog, The Daily Dose.
Toughest first-round draw
Central. The teams ranked No. 1 through No. 5 in our poll each
were rewarded for their undefeated season by hosting the champion
of a conference ranked 20th or lower in Kickoff ‘09, or a
conference runner up. The opponents for UW-Whitewater and Wesley
are unranked, while the opponents for Mount Union, Linfield and St.
John’s check in at Nos. 20, 22 and 25. The 10-0 Dutch,
meanwhile, drew No. 7 Mary Hardin-Baylor, the consensus third most
dominant team in the country the past few seasons. Yikes.
Easiest opening game
UW-Whitewater. Among Lakeland’s four losses are a pair of
23-point defeats to playoff teams in Week 1 (Central, 40-17) and
Week 2 (Mount St. Joseph, 42-19). The Muskies would be fortunate to
keep it that close; in a home-and-home series in 2006-07, the
Warhawks won 75-14 and 41-7.
Toughest path to Salem
Everyone in the St. John’s bracket has a difficult path. And
because I can’t stop making charts, here’s one
comparing the strength of the four brackets:
Mount Union/East: One undefeated team, two with multiple losses,
aggregate record 71-8.
Wesley/South: Three undefeated teams, five with multiple losses,
aggregate record 69-10.
UW-W/North: Three undefeated teams, one with multiple losses,
aggregate record 72-8.
St. John’s/West: Three undefeated teams, one with multiple
losses, aggregate record 75-4.
The most difficult path? UMHB would have to beat No. 6 Central,
No. 5 Linfield, No. 4 St, John’s, No. 2 UWW and either No. 3
Wesley or No. 1 Mount Union, all without once playing at home (we
think), to win it. Wow.
Longest road to Salem
Mary Hardin-Baylor, whose Texas-to-Iowa jaunt is one of the big
trips of the first round, would find itself in California or Oregon
with a win. And then perhaps Minnesota, Wisconsin and Virginia.
Maine Maritime, with a win at Montclair State on Saturday, could be
900 miles from its second-round opponent.
Easiest path to Salem (Book now)
Mount Union. Not only does it get to face East Region teams for
the third year in a row, but it avoids the powerful side of the
bracket in a potential semifinal matchup. No. 3 Wesley and No. 11
Thomas More are the only top 15-ranked teams on the Purple
Raiders’ side of the draw, and No. 16 Delaware Valley and No.
24 Montclair State are the only top 25 teams in its group of
eight.
The committee nailed
The four number one seeds. Building brackets around UW-Whitewater
and St. John’s continues the wise tradition of not punishing
the field’s four best teams for their regional affiliation.
Could you imagine if the Warhawks were also in the bracket with the
Johnnies, Linfield, Central, UMHB, et. al.?
The committee blew
Please refer to the opening 75 paragraphs of this column.
Road team most deserving of a home game
Wabash, three points from being the 10-0 team in
Wittenberg’s spot, and coming off a Week 11 win over another
playoff team, not only doesn’t play at home, but goes to
visit the champion of the CCIW, one of the nation’s power
conferences.
Home team least deserving of a home game
Huntingdon. On the selection committee’s criteria, the Hawks
had a 5-0 regional record and a powerful .595 SoS number. But
Huntingdon’s 8-2 record, which included a 31-13 loss at 4-6
UW-Oshkosh, is worse than any host team. Actually, ten one-loss
teams are in the road in the first round. The Hawks got paired with
Mississippi College because it was the only opponent that
didn’t require a flight; they’re at home because of
marginally better wins against common opponents Millsaps and
Louisana College, among other things.
We would have liked to see
Some seeds.
Played themselves in during Week 11
Susquehanna, Montclair State, N.C. Wesleyan and Maine Maritime
each earned its AQ with a final-game victory. So did
Hampden-Sydney, though it might have been in anyway with a loss. It
was Albright, with a 44-43, come-from-23-down overtime victory
against Lebanon Valley, which did the most to get itself into the
field.
Played themselves out during Week 11
Last season, we listed RPI, Montclair State, Hampden-Sydney,
Catholic and St. John Fisher and Redlands in this spot. This year,
only Dickinson lost in Week 11 when it seemed to have a very good
shot at an at-large bid in hand with a victory.
Best first-round matchup
UMHB at Central is sort of a no-brainer, but I’d love to be
in town for St. Thomas at Monmouth, Wabash at Illinois Wesleyan and
Cal Lutheran at Linfield.
The 'sorry for the false hopes' award
Our dearest apologies to the Polar Bears. This is not an award
anyone really enjoys winning.
Each year, D3football.com projects the playoff field the night
before Selection Sunday, looking at basically the same data the
committee is privy to, except their final regional ranking. Here's
how we've done projecting the field since we began giving it a try,
and how the teams we missed on have fared:
2009: 31 of 32: We projected Ohio Northern; the
committee took Washington & Jefferson.
2008: 30 of 32: We projected DePauw and Montclair
State; the committee took Curry, which upset Empire 8 champion
Ithaca in the first round, and Wheaton, which won three games and
the North Central bracket, before losing to Mount Union in a
semifinal.
2007: 31 of 32: We projected Whitworth; the
committee preferred UW-Eau Claire, which beat St. Norbert and lost
to Bethel.
2006: 32 of 32.
2005: 31 of 32: We projected Alfred; the
committee preferred Wilkes, which lost to Rowan, 42-3.
2004: 28 of 28.
2003: 27 of 28: We projected UMHB; the committee
took Simpson, which lost in the first round to St. Norbert.
2002: 27 of 28: We projected Hartwick; the
committee took Washington and Jefferson, which beat second-year
Christopher Newport, 24-10, and lost, 45-10, at Trinity
(Texas).
2001: 25 of 28: We picked Menlo and Linfield in
Pool B; the committee took Whitworth (0-1) and Ithaca (advanced to
regional final). In Pool C, we chose UW-Eau Claire; the committee
took Montclair State (0-1).
It's an ATN annual tradition (take a look at what we thought would happen in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008) to examine each eight-team bracket within the overall bracket and offer our takes on who will rise up, who will fall back and who will be the last of the four standing. Pat, Ryan, Frank and I each make our contributions separately, without consulting with each other or seeing the others’ opinions before the column goes live.
Identified by their bracket names, here goes:
MOUNT UNION BRACKET
Surprises
Keith: Montclair State. The Red Hawks gave up
more than half of their 150 points allowed in two September games
against Wilkes and Brockport State. They’ve cleaned up their
act since the start of October, surrendering just 74 points in
seven games, including 7, 7 and 6 to Cortland State, Rowan and
Kean. Maine Maritime might not get to 130 rushing yards against
these guys, much less 730, and they could make it surprisingly hard
for Mount Union to score in the second round.
Ryan: The MAC. For just the second time in the
D3football.com era, the perennially tough conference has landed two
teams in the NCAA playoffs. Both, too, are in a clear position to
log a win before going head-to-head in Round 2.
Frank: The Raiders by less than 30. It's tough to
pick a surprise in a region that includes "Purple Power." That
being said, it will be a surprise to most if this No. 1 seed (I'm
guessing on that seed, of course) does not beat every opponent in
the first three rounds by 30-plus points per game. I'm going to go
out on a limb and say that, in fact, the Pride of Alliance will not
win EVERY regional round game by 30 or more, with the likes of
Albright, Del Val and Montclair having a chance to at least stick
with the Raiders early.
Pat: Maine Maritime. I'm not sure that a team
that gave up 26 points in the fourth quarter to Becker is going to
get a lot of respect nationally but I think conditions are good to
suspect something might happen in the first round at Montclair
State. It's a specialized offense (triple option) that Montclair
State isn't going to see every day and Montclair hasn't shown a lot
of offensive explosiveness in the latter half of the season. Maine
Maritime could well control the clock, keep it close and come out
on top in the end.
Disappointments
Keith: Alfred. I had high hopes for this team
after seeing it play in September, but the 31-10 loss to Ithaca
sapped my faith. If defense is the Saxons’ weakness (61
points allowed in the final two games), then Albright, coming off a
44-point second half, is not a good matchup.
Ryan: Maine Maritime. For all the talk
surrounding its emotional dethroning of Curry to get into the
playoffs, the team’s season will end on a decidedly sour note
against Montclair State. The Red Hawks aren’t known for
putting up a lot of points, but that could change this weekend.
Frank: New York. For all of its historical
strength this time of year over the past three decades, New York
State is represented by just one team in the East this year --
Alfred. New York contains about 7 percent of playoff-eligible
Division III teams, and yet represents just 3 percent of the field
this year. It is very possible that there will be zero New York
teams left after the First Round if Albright puts together its "A"
game.
Pat: Alfred. Tough call to pick a disappointment
in a bracket where all roads end in Alliance, but I wonder about
the Saxons. Albright has to be going in there riding pretty high,
playing its way into the playoffs behind their No. 2 quarterback.
If Tanner Kelly is healthy, Albright is the best team Alfred has
faced all season. If Patrick Suber plays quarterback, Albright is
still better than anyone Alfred played out of conference.
Champion
Keith: Mount Union. No disrespect to the quality
teams in this bracket, but the Purple Raiders have at least reached
the semifinals 14 consecutive seasons.
Ryan: Let’s Mount up and move on.
Frank: Easy. Washington & Jefferson ... 's
opponent in the first round. Their name escapes me. My mind becomes
MUC-ky this time of year.
Pat: Champion: I can't find a new way to say
Mount Union. So, Mount Union.
WESLEY BRACKET
Surprises
Keith: Mississippi College. The Choctaws can win
their playoff opener on the road and play the role of ‘ASC
team that gives Wesley trouble’ usually occupied by UMHB.
Ryan: DePauw. Maybe the committee expects
Indiana-based DePauw to be a one-and-done team, but it’s
surprising to see the Tigers lumped in with the South Region teams.
Administratively, sure, DPU is South. But geographically? Two wins,
though unlikely, are not out of the question, and that means taking
to the skies. I suppose I figured a home could be found for them in
the North.
Frank: Johns Hopkins. Even with a two-game
disparity in the loss column, expect an upset in the first round in
the Johns Hopkins/Hampden-Sydney matchup. H-SC pretty much rolled
through its opposition -- but there are two problems. First, their
strength of schedule was weak. Second, H-SC struggled against a
team that JHU beat badly -- Gettysburg. This should be a quality
game, either way.
Pat: How good the Huntingdon/Mississippi College
game will be. That should be a fun one and I wish I could see
it.
Disappointments
Keith: Thomas More. The opener against DePauw is
no gimme, and if the Saints win that, they’re set up to ride
an 11-0 record into a game with a Hampden-Sydney team that could
end a promising season with its all-out offensive assault.
Ryan: Huntingdon and Misssissippi College.
Huntingdon is coming off a 35-0 loss to a first-year football
program, and Mississippi College needed some fourth-quarter points
to seal up their last game against a squad that is 0-10. I’m
disappointed with the momentum these teams lost coming into the
playoffs, but I will be optimistic that Saturday’s winner
will get a little bit of their mojo back.
Frank: Mississippi College. Would the REAL
Mississippi College please step forward? After the shocking victory
over Mary Hardin-Baylor in Game 6, the team has struggled with a
loss to mediocre Howard Payne and a closer-than-expected game vs.
winless Texas Lutheran. Huntingdon has something to prove and will
make the late-season disappointments of Mississippi College
continue.
Pat: Thomas More. I hate to pick here, but
looking at the offenses that line up against them in the first
round and potential second round makes me wonder. I know the
Saints' defense has come up big so far this season, but DePauw
presents a strong quarterback challenge, and Hampden-Sydney would
as well.
Champion
Keith: Wesley. I’m willing to bet no one in
the nation has more skill-position talent or team speed than the
Wolverines. It might not have the offensive interior to bring a
title back from Salem, but Wesley is capable of overwhelming anyone
it sees before then.
Ryan: Most fans and observers I’ve talked
to have told me this Wesley team is faster, stronger and more
skilled than last year’s team. The 410 yards per game bear
that out somewhat, but what may tell a better story is the total
dominance of every Division III team they have faced. This is the
year the Wolverines bite back against any and all naysayers.
Frank: Wesley. Even though it only played six
games against Division III opposition this year, Wesley is where
it's at. The Wolverines beat their nemesis, Salisbury, by the
largest margin yet (18 points) in its four-game winning streak over
the Gulls. And 18 points was the lowest margin of victory for the
team this year. The South looks weak overall, so I can't find
another team to ride here.
Pat: Wesley. I like playoff experience here, and
the Wolverines have it in spades. Wesley will get pushed a little
bit by North Carolina Wesleyan and will definitely face a potent
offense in the second week, regardless of who advances. The other
half of the bracket could bring a diverse offense or a strong
defensive challenge.
UW-WHITEWATER BRACKET
Surprises
Keith: That somebody from the MIAA, UAA, HCAC or
NCAC is guaranteed an appearance in the round of eight. Trine, Case
Western Reserve, Mount St. Joseph or Wittenberg is going to take a
big step forward for its program, something it can take on the
recruiting trail and beat all but seven other teams with. Yet
I’m fairly confident that the CCIW champion would be favored
to come out of this end of the bracket if had been placed over
there against these teams.
Ryan: Wittenberg. With this bracket setup,
it’s possible we’ll still be talking about Wittenberg
three weekends from now. And perhaps the Tigers deserve that. Their
defense, which has only once given up more than a single score in a
game, should be able to carve Mount St. Joseph and the Round 2
opponent like butter. But like other North Coast teams that have
made it deep into the postseason against some of the weaker teams
in the playoff field, that signature win, that “wow”
factor, will remain elusive.
Frank: Trine. How can't you be impressed with
Trine's level of success the last two seasons? The bottom half of
the bracket should be prepared for lots of Thunder, as the
experience from last year's 14-0 loss to Wheaton will not be
forgotten. The first two rounds in this part of the bracket are
very closely matched, giving Trine the slight advantage, in my
opinion.
Pat: Trine. Perhaps the Thunder will do better
now that they are out of the spotlight, not playing at home against
a CCIW team. In fact, there were some thoughts that the Trine
defense as a unit might be better after Courtney Pearson's
graduation. Whether that has materialized may not be readily
apparent against the schedule Trine has played to date, but that
group will certainly be tested by Case Western Reserve in the first
round. Case hasn't played anyone of Trine's caliber either, so if
the Spartans struggle in the first round, it bodes poorly the rest
of the way.
Disappointments
Keith: Illinois Wesleyan. As mentioned above, the
Titans are set up to fail in the second round against
UW-Whitewater, which received six of the 25 first-place votes in
the last several D3football.com polls. CCIW teams fare extremely
well in the postseason except when running up against Stagg Bowl
contenders. We might not be able to judge how good the Titans are
this season by the round they were eliminated.
Ryan: Illinois Wesleyan. It’s well
documented that Illinois Wesleyan had some massive hurdles to
overcome to get here. Beating North Central and Wheaton in
back-to-back weeks was a near unthinkable feat. But I’ve
always believed in defense, and the Titans have both a run and pass
defense that stood out in a tough conference. IWU is the
second-best team in this bracket, but with UW-Whitewater just a
game away, the Titans won’t get to showcase their full worth.
Frank: Case Western Reserve. Congratulations to
Case Western Reserve on the team's big 10-0 season. Yet, please
work on that schedule strength in the future. A .402 opponents' win
percentage will not serve you well in scenarios like this Saturday.
Dan Whalen is a good quarterback, no doubt, but he is not
infallible and will be tested mightily against Trine's defense. Net
result: a CWRU loss early.
Pat: Case Western Reserve. If not in the first
round, then further along. And how to judge the potential
second-round matchup between two untested teams in Case and
Wittenberg?
Champion
Keith: UW-Whitewater. I’m going to ride
this train until the wheels fall off. Or at least until we get to
the semis.
Ryan: UW-Whitewater. I’ve had the Warhawks
No. 1 since the preseason. Why mess with a good thing?
Frank: U-Dub-Dub. Apparently the initials "LL"
are following me around. Yes, "LL" stands for "Liberty League," the
conference for which I do a weekly Internet radio show. However,
since I've covered the sidelines of the Stagg Bowl, "LL" has stood
for "Lance Leipold," Wisconsin-Whitewater's head coach. It won't be
changing anytime soon, either. Whitewater is better than ever and
will not be caught by surprise by anyone in this region.
Pat: UW-Whitewater. Lurking over there at the
other end of the bracket from all of my intrigue is Division III's
other purple powerhouse.
ST. JOHN’S BRACKET
Surprises
Keith: Monmouth. With all the firepower in this
bracket – some of the most successful Division III programs
of all time, including three teams who have been to the Stagg Bowl
this decade and two champions -- the Scots are the forgotten ones.
With the nation’s No. 2 offense behind Huntingdon (in yards,
with 542 a game) and North Central (in points, with 47.7 a game),
Alex Tanney and the gang is going to be quite a problem. No
one’s stayed within 20 points since the opener, and although
there are no easy wins in this bracket, the MWC champions could get
a few.
Ryan: St. Thomas. Two years removed from a 2-8
season, the Tommies were four points away from having a bracket
named after them. I bought into some of the preseason hype about
this team, but it did take a while for me to fully accept that St.
Thomas was in the midst of a Cinderella season. And with the kind
of pass defense the Tommies have, Monmouth, with Alex Tanney under
center, will have a tough go of it come Saturday.
Frank: Mary Hardin-Baylor. It will certainly be a
"Wild, Wild West" this year -- and adding to that will be a team
not even from the West Region. Enter Mary Hardin-Baylor. It seems
that one loss has pushed the country's confidence in this team
underwater. Yet, why? The loss to Mississippi College occurred
during a change at starting quarterback. Since losing his first
start, freshman LiDarral Bailey has not looked back. You learn more
from losses than wins, I believe, and a team with great playoff
experience historically and some good lessons in 2009 will find
their way to the quarterfinals.
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor. Not that there's a
player on this team that played during the team's 2004 run to the
Stagg Bowl, all against ranked teams, all on the road, but it's
tempting to think they could catch lightning in a bottle again.
Looking down the road, I could see St. John's being prepared well
enough defensively for the Crusader attack, but that requires the
Johnnie offense to score enough to get them there.
Disappointments
Keith: One of the 10-0 home teams. I don’t
know who among St. John’s, Monmouth, Central and Linfield
will lose Saturday, but their opponents are too good for them all
to advance. Somebody is going to have its dream season come to an
abrupt end.
Ryan: Mary Hardin-Baylor. Seeing the Crusaders
shipped into this bracket. I do understand the logistics of why
things like this are done, but it’s unfortunate to stack the
toughest overall bracket with yet another top 10 team. And with the
kind of schedule Central plays, the 10-0 Dutch deserve a much
easier first round draw. This situation is reminiscent of last
year’s St. John’s team, which in Round 1 had to face a
one-loss UW-W squad hell bent on returning to Salem.
Frank: Seedings?! This is the one region in which
it would be helpful to know what the seeds of the teams really are.
When in one bracket you have: 1) a team ranked in the mid-pack of
the South Region fly into the bracket (UMHB); and 2) teams that are
potentially forced to match up to avoid future flights (Cal
Lutheran/Linfield), it would be helpful for everyone to know what
the Selection Committee viewed as the relative strengths of such a
diverse and potent bracket. Why does it matter? Well, who will host
a semi-final if the top of the brackets don't win? Or for that
matter, who hosts in ANY subsequent round? There was no need for
this lack of transparency, and the disappointment is epitomized
inside this bracket.
Pat: Monmouth. In a first-round game between two
teams that have not really been prepared by their non-conference
schedule, St. Thomas at least did play at St. John's in midseason.
The Tommies found out where they was weak and have made changes.
I'm not sure Monmouth has played a game that can deliver that kind
of result, so they will have to make their changes on the fly. And
manage the clock better than against Wartburg last season.
Champion
Keith: Linfield. St. John’s is so banged
up, and all four No. 1 seeds (sorry, I keep saying that out of
habit) never advance anyway. That leaves trips to Oregon and the
Catdome for everyone else. All else being equal, having to fly two
time zones to play an unbeaten team in front of a boisterous crowd
seems less than ideal.
Ryan: Central. A tough schedule is nothing new to
this Iowa team, but after playing Mary Hardin-Baylor, Linfield and
St. John’s to win the region, the Dutch may be too banged up
to do much damage in the semis.
Frank: St. John's. There are two ways to look at
St. John's right now. One way is to look at the team as a
collection of guys who must be downright exhausted by now because
of the grueling and close games they've faced. I choose to look at
the team as experienced from top to bottom with a schedule strength
that is very respectable. The winner of this bracket will have
earned their keep with the potentcy present, so give the nod to
Division III's "Ol' Ball Coach," John Gagliardi, and his Johnnies
in such a scenario.
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor or Linfield. Sorry to
waffle.
Around the Nation begins its yearly playoff hiatus following this
column, but be sure to check back around the time of the Stagg Bowl
and shortly thereafter for the annual ATN year-in-review. Plus,
stay tuned to the Daily Dose for Triple Take on Fridays and the ATN
Podcast on Mondays.
Before you drift off into the offseason, especially for those fans whose seasons end this week, ATN would like to remind you that we’ll be honoring, highlighting and otherwise mentioning your teams right up until the beginning of January. So don’t tune out completely once your team has turned the equipment in. The remainder of the calendar:
Sat. Nov. 21: Playoffs, Round 1 (32 teams), ECAC
bowl games (12 teams)
Following week: ATN podcast on Mondays,
D3football.com regional wrap-ups and playoff features
Tues.-Wed.
Sat. Nov. 28: Playoffs, Round 2
Following week: Gagliardi trophy finalists named,
D3football.com playoff features, ATN podcast
Sat. Dec. 5: Playoffs, Round 3 (eight teams);
D-III Senior Classic all-star game in Salem
Following week: D3football.com All-Region teams
announced, Gagliardi Trophy regional finalists (four) announced,
Liberty Mutual coach of the year fan voting ends, D3football.com
playoff features midweek, ATN podcast
Sat. Dec. 12: National semifinals (four teams),
live webcast
Thu. Dec. 17: Gagliardi Trophy presentation
Fri. Dec. 18: Stagg Bowl luncheon, pregame
festivities in Salem/Roanoke
Sat. Dec. 19: Stagg Bowl XXXVII, 11 a.m.,
D3football.com all-Americans announced during pregame broadcast,
wall-to-wall coverage of the championship, First installment of
ATN’s year-in-review
Last week Dec./First week Jan.: Final installment
of ATN’s year-in-review, Liberty Mutual coach of the year
award winner announced.
Readers: ATN seeks feedback on moments to remember for the
year-in-review.
Around the Nation always encourages general opinions on the
column. Readers can best get a response by posting on Around the
Nation's running thread on Post Patterns (under general football).
Send e-mail to Keith@D3football.com or use our feedback
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Follow Around the Nation …
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