A few seasons of playoff-level success create healthy
expectations in a program. But those runs can also lull players
into a false sense of entitlement.
Or so says Wartburg coach Eric Koehler.
The Knights' 7-3 season in 2005 equaled the program's worst
record in more than a decade. But their awakening wasn't nearly as
rude as Springfield's, which fell to 4-6 after consecutive playoff
berths from 2002-04, including a regional top seed.
Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons and Christopher Newport each missed
the playoffs last season after finishing recent seasons in the
playoffs.
Last season could have sparked a downward trend at all five
schools. But by rebuilding the players' confidence, first in the
offseason, then in early wins, all could be headed back to the
playoffs in 2006.
Wartburg, which beat sentimental rival Luther last week
28-17, has its best opportunity to take control of the IIAC race
when it plays at competitive rival Central on Saturday.
By this time last season, they'd already lost twice,
including the first defeat against Luther since 1991.
"Maybe once in a while you go 10-2, 11-1 and 8-3 and you
think it comes automatically, and it doesn't," says Koehler,
offensive coordinator in those seasons and the 7-3 effort before
taking over as head coach this year.
Whether it was a rash of injuries, a cycle of youth, a
difficult schedule or some combination that led to the off years,
Koehler and longtime Springfield coach Mike DeLong said one thing
helps a team get back on its perch.
"When you take a look at the teams that have been able to
sustain success," says DeLong, "they've all been able to play with
great confidence."
Rebuilding it starts as soon as the previous season
ends.
"You bring your players in, and hopefully talk about what
their goals are," DeLong says. "All the players pretty much wanted
to bounce back. I think a lot of it is their attitude."
Koehler said Wartburg strength coach Joel Dettwiler noticed
that immediately.
"He thought we had a great attitude," Koehler said. "The
upperclassmen took it upon themselves. They didn't want to have a
year like we did last year. A lot of guys on our team have been on
some very good teams."
"The makeup of your team, the leadership ... can be a big
factor," DeLong said.
But results may speak even louder, a dangerous truth when it
comes to a team's collective confidence.
"It's fragile," Koehler said. "The time it takes to build
that confidence vs. the time it takes to destroy it is a big
difference."
DeLong knows full well.
"We lost a couple of 1-point games early last year, which
rattles a team's confidence," he said. "They're both conference
games, and then we made a quarterback change."
This season, the Pride started off with an eight-point win
against then-No. 11 ranked Union, and has followed by defeating
Montclair State and Empire 8 rival Alfred.
"One big win can carry you," DeLong says. "If you believe you
can play with one of the stronger teams, you believe you can play
with anyone."
Koehler agrees, saying it's not even necessarily about
winning.
"Regardless of the outcome, if we play well, play physical,
play fast, all those clichés," he says, "it doesn't
guarantee we're going to win. But how you lose (the confidence) is
when you don't play to your ability level."
Although its just a start and doesn't guarantee them
anything, here's how the five teams we mentioned regained their
confidence:
Wartburg
After losing at Millikin and Luther and to Central last
season, the Knights began the year with a 20-0 win against Monmouth
and a 31-7 win at Simpson. With as many as 12 sophomores holding
key roles, this week's visit to Central will give one team
something to build on as it battles Coe for the top IIAC spot. "We
know this game isn't going to determine the conference champion, we
have no way of knowing that right now," Koehler says. "But if you
look at history, this game will probably factor into
it."
Springfield
After beating Union, the Pride followed by defeating
Montclair State and Empire 8 rival Alfred. Saturday they host
Utica, their fourth consecutive home game and second against a team
that beat it by one last season. "I didn't get the feeling that the
bottom had fallen out," DeLong says of last season. "We just
weren't playing that well, and I recognized that." His team will
likely determine its playoff fate in the second half of October
against Brockport State and on visits to St. John Fisher and
Ithaca.
Hardin-Simmons
The Cowboys were 6-0 before a 38-7 home loss to Mary
Hardin-Baylor last season. Still in line for a Pool C playoff spot,
they lost 32-27 at Texas Lutheran to end the year. The 2006
schedule was crafted so that Mary Hardin-Baylor wouldn't be the
first big-time opponent on the slate. The 21-6 win against visiting
Linfield may more impressive in the Cowboys' psyche than it was on
the field, if the Wildcats aren't the championship-level team they
were. But at 2-0, with a suspended game against Louisiana College
they were leading 28-12 near halftime and with 3-0 Mississippi
College ahead, the Cowboys will be well-prepared to go to Mary
Hardin-Baylor on Oct. 7.
Wheaton
The Thunder stumbled at North Central and Illinois Wesleyan
on the way to 7-3 last season, leaving it one of the odd teams out
when the CCIW got two playoff bids. Albion, Washington U. and Hope
felt the Thunder first-hand so far, with the Flying Dutchmen's
35-21 loss Saturday the closest margin. Wheaton will define itself
in the next three weeks, however, visiting Millikin, hosting North
Central and going to Augustana, which ended Wheaton's season 28-7
last year.
Christopher Newport
The Captains quite obviously got their confidence together by
beating then-No. 6 Mary Hardin-Baylor, an amazing feat considering
then-No. 3 Rowan beat them 32-8 in the opener. After beating the
Crusaders, the Captains won at Salisbury, who had won convincingly
at Washington & Jefferson in their opener. With two wins since
their 6-4 season and 0-1 start, the Captains -- once dangerously
close to losing their swagger -- are probably the favorite for the
USAC title.
Poll
positions
The two major polls -- that of the American Football Coaches
Association's 40 voters and ours, which mixes media, sports
information directors and coaches -- look the similar for much of
the top 10 before the major discrepancies begin.
AFCA tenth-ranked Cortland State is 19th in D3football.com.
That's 12 spots behind Rowan, which was penalized in both polls for
losing 21-0 to Division I-AA Robert Morris. D3football.com dropped
the Profs from third to seventh, while the coaches slid them to
12th, two spots behind the Red Dragons.
AFCA No. 11 Wheaton held steady at 21 in the D3football.com
poll.
Mary Hardin-Baylor (No. 12 D3football.com, No. 17 AFCA)
remained well ahead of Christopher Newport (Nos. 24 and 26) even
though it's only been three weeks since the Captains beat the
Crusaders 15-10.
Ithaca remained in both polls, at No. 22, following a 34-10
loss to St. John Fisher. The Bombers were ranked eighth (AFCA) and
11th.
The coaches ranked Mt. St. Joseph (20), Wartburg (21) and
Trinity (Texas) (24), while D3football.com voters stuck with
Linfield (20), Delaware Valley (23) and CNU. The two polls did
agree on Springfield entering at No. 25.
Howard Payne, the third team receiving votes in D3 got the
fewest of anyone getting votes (2) among the coaches.
Don Hansen's Football Gazette's Top 40 ranking didn't settle
many of the AFCA-D3 disputes. It ranked Cortland 14th and Wheaton
16th. The only surprises in that ranking (besides St. John "Fosher"
and Mary "Hardon" Baylor) were Central at No. 8, Brockport State --
unacknowledged in the polls -- at 26 and Mississippi College at
33.
As always, be reminded that a Division III top 25 is the most
exclusive ranking in football. With 234 schools, 209 teams go
unranked each week. We have fewer spots in our poll than we do
conferences (26) and playoff spots (32).
That said, there are always unranked teams that deserve
consideration. Generally those teams are among our others receiving
votes -- there were 31 of those teams this week -- but here's where
I acknowledge their possible Top 25 worthiness.
My
26-35
Around the Nation resumes its weekly trip inside the mind of
a D3football.com Top 25 voter. Take it in stride, however, as the
other 24 voters clearly don't care what I think, which is not
necessarily a bad thing.
Only three of my top 25 lost last week, and I didn't think
Rowan's loss to Robert Morris hurt its standing in Division III. I
drop Ithaca and RPI out of my top 25. I filled my two open spots
with St. John Fisher and Cortland State, leaving Wartburg 26th --
kind of an artificial barrier against ranking a third IIAC team, I
admit, as I already have Coe and Central in the top 13. The
Knights, as mentioned above, get a chance to prove themselves this
Saturday.
Many key teams I was watching but not ranking -- from
UW-Oshkosh to Alfred to Bethel -- lost last week, so the new group
is a more tentative one. Reasons to believe and not believe in many
of these teams. From 27 on, in a kind-of thought-out order, I'm
watching Springfield, Union, RPI and Ithaca still, and in the New
York area, they'll play each other enough to sort things out. Count
Alfred in that group too, although Rochester appears to be a
spoiler at best. Elsewhere, UW-Stout matched up with Whitworth but
lost; the overtime road win probably helped legitimize the Pirates
more than it affected the Blue Devils though. Concordia-Moorhead,
however, probably strengthened its case with a 14-12 loss to St.
John's. Later in the year, if that, a 3-point loss to Bethel and an
out-of-division loss are their three blemishes, they might still be
a MIAC playoff rep, especially after the Royals turned around and
lost to Carleton.
The official 30-plus group, then, still needs to include
Oshkosh, Stout and other WIAC teams. UW-Platteville's win against
Augustana could be helpful if the Vikings rebound in CCIW play. St.
Olaf, Carthage, Concordia (Wis.), Mount St. Joseph, and St. Norbert
are all in the mix. Salisbury, Washington & Jefferson, North
Central and Monmouth each have losses to teams mentioned
here.
Last week's My 26-35 is posted on the Post Patterns Around
the Nation thread. On Thursdays and Fridays, I'll answer your
direct questions about my votes there, and about the top 25 on the
General Football Top 25 thread.
Press
coverage
Around the Nation keeps an eye out for unique takes on
Division III football, beyond your standard game stories and
features.
This week we offer a little bit of heavy reading, as former
St. Olaf assistant coach Gordon Marino tackled the use of football
to attract students to Division III schools (and he's not heaping
praise on the practice). The essay by Fay Vincent (yes, that one)
doesn't touch on football and is a few months old, but goes
together with the scholarship issue and mentions several
football-playing Division III schools.
The third selection for the ATN readers club this week is
from details what Louisiana College gets out of its canceled game
with Hardin-Simmons.
Using
football as bait, Inside Higher Ed
No
merit in these scholarships, The Washington
Post
The
game that wasn't could help LC, The Town Talk
Alexandria/Pineville, Louisiana
Streak
watch
Something's got to give when Trinity (Conn.) and Williams
meet this week. Each team not only represents its last loss (see
below), but they also mark two of the tougher challenges on the
NESCAC slate. After the Bantams dealt with Colby in their opener,
proving they can win without coach Chuck Priore, who left after
last season to coach Division I-AA Stony Brook, they'll try to save
Division III's longest winning streak.
Elsewhere, Lycoming's one-point loss knocks them off the
winners side. Lewis & Clark, I realized, should have been on
the winless side.
Division III's longest win streaks
Trinity (Conn.) (31 consecutive wins, last loss at Williams,
30-13, Sept. 28, 2002; 1-0 in 2006)
Mount Union (11 consecutive wins, last loss vs. Ohio
Northern, 21-14, Oct. 22, 2005; 3-0 in 2006)
St. Norbert (11 consecutive wins, last loss vs. Monmouth,
28-20, Sept. 17, 2005; 3-0 in 2006)
Cal Lutheran (10 consecutive wins, last loss at Occidental,
41-9, Sept. 24, 2005; 3-0 in 2006)
Howard Payne (9 consecutive wins, last loss at
Hardin-Simmons, 45-20, Oct. 1, 2005; 3-0 in 2006)
Williams (7 consecutive wins, last loss at Trinity, Conn.
34-6, Oct. 1, 2005; 1-0 in 2006)
The longest active losing streaks
Heidelberg (29 consecutive losses, last win vs. Marietta on
Oct. 4, 2003; 0-4 in 2006)
Juniata (16 consecutive losses, last win at Lycoming, 14-7,
Oct. 30, 2004; 0-4 in 2006)
Tri-State (13 consecutive losses, last win vs. Kalamazoo,
21-14, Nov. 13, 2004, 0-3 in 2006)
Lewis & Clark (12 consecutive losses, last win vs.
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Oct. 9, 2004, 0-3 in 2006)
Wesleyan (11 consecutive losses, last win vs. Bowdoin, 25-21,
Oct. 30, 2004; 0-1 in 2006)
Discuss other streaks (regular season, conference, home/road)
on Post Patterns' Around the Nation board.
Unbeaten
watch
As the season progresses, we'll highlight the last of the
teams without losses heading into the playoffs. Right now, we've
got 34 of the 234 Division III teams still undefeated this year --
39 if you include the five 1-0 NESCAC teams. Four conferences (The
ASC, IIAC, MIAC and OAC) feature three unbeaten teams
each.
Winless
watch
Thirty-seven non-NESCAC teams are without a win through Week
4. Independents are again at the bottom of the barrel, sporting not
one unbeaten and six winless teams, including four that are
0-4.
Five games to
watch
This isn't the most thrilling week of games. There are no
matchups of top 25 teams and at most two games featuring conference
co-favorites who are also playoff hopefuls. The best game is in
Iowa, although the only Division III game in Alabama might also be
worth watching. Our five best:
No. 6 Wesley at Huntingdon
The Hawks' first foray into ranked-team territory didn't end
so well, in a 31-12 loss to Ithaca. But traveling to New York is a
lot different than staying in Alabama, as the Wolverines get to do
the class-skipping this time, for a 900-mile jaunt from Dover, Del.
to Montgomery. The Hawks have the nation's 19th-best passing
offense while the Wolverines are the No. 23 pass efficiency
defense. Wesley has also scored 42 points per game in its 3-0
start.
Wartburg at No. 13 Central
The unquestioned top game of the week features the
just-outside-the-rankings Knights and the defending IIAC champion
Dutch. Both teams have played well defensively, with Central
allowing 7.7 points per game in its 3-0 start and Wartburg allowing
eight.
No. 22 Ithaca at Brockport State
Each coming off big in-state losses (the Bombers to St. John
Fisher and the Golden Eagles to Cortland State), this is not yet an
elimination game as far as playoff berths are concerned. But a win
helps either's case, especially with so much schedule left to be
play. Brockport, without a conference automatic bid to chase, might
need it more.
Elmhurst at Carthage
A pair of 3-0 teams meet in the CCIW, but we can't tell if
they're quiet contenders or just off to a good start against
mediocre competition. The Red Men have twice held their opponents
to single digits, while the Bluejays have a shutout and a 10-point
game on their defensive ledger. Establishing a ground game would be
key, as neither team averages 90 yards rushing.
SUNY-Maritime at Morrisville State
One of Division III's three first-year teams will get its
first win here, and some much-needed -- you got it -- confidence.
The Mustangs, 0-4 and outscored by an average of 39-10, get the
home game, hosting the 0-2 Privateers, who have been decent on
defense (187.5 yards per game).
Upset special
Trinity (Conn.) at Williams. Now that my upset record is no
longer perfect, I can take big risks. I'm going with Williams on
gut feeling here. Good things can't last forever, and it's time for
Trinity to lose focus, play poorly or catch some bad breaks just
once, isn't it? It's also the D3football.com Game of the
Week.
Upset results: 2-2 after Delaware Valley beat Lycoming by a
point last week.
Surprisingly good game
I could go with Hampden-Sydney against Bridgewater, or
Mississippi College against Hardin-Simmons, but they've both been
featured here before. How about Western Connecticut holding its own
against a No. 7 Rowan squad likely smarting from a shutout last
week? The Colonials have beaten two I-AAs in their 3-0 start. While
the Profs have the nation's No. 1 total defense so far, Western
Connecticut has also been strong on that side of the ball, allowing
just 262 yards per game. I may not be ready to predict a win, but I
could see them making Rowan work for theirs.
Surprisingly good results: 2-2 after Hampden-Sydney got its
first win, knocking off Guilford 46-43.
Also keep an eye on -- No. 2 UW-Whitewater at UW-Eau Claire,
Carleton at No. 4 St. John's, Mississippi College at No. 5
Hardin-Simmons, Hampden-Sydney at No. 9 Bridgewater (Va.),
Otterbein at No. 10 Ohio Northern, DePauw at Chicago, Ferrum at
Averett.
Who
are those guys?
The NAIA's Azusa Pacific is back for a third consecutive
crack at a tough Division III opponent, but otherwise the schedules
have dried up as many teams are beginning conference
play.
vs. Division I-AA (1-1 in Week 4, 6-5 in 2006)
None
vs. Division II (No games in Week 4, 3-8 in 2006)
Lincoln (Mo.) at Millsaps
vs. NAIA (5-1 in Week 4, 16-7 in 2006)
Azusa Pacific at Whitworth
UW-Stevens Point at Trinity International
But don't quote
me
Quick observations from Week 4 and thoughts to get you ready
for Week 5:
There are 13 night kickoffs this week.
Conference play gets underway in the Centennial, CCIW and
MIAA. In the NCAC, NJAC and MWC, it's generally the same, as all
but one game (not one week) has been non-conference. It's been all
but two in the OAC and WIAC.
All seven teams in the Liberty League have either two or
three wins. At 2-2, Rochester has the worst overall
record.
Washington U. has the same problem in the four-team UAA,
where teams are 11-4 with conference games yet to begin.
Tri-State has the toughest luck. The team that lost 73-0 last
Oct. 8 has now lost its past four games by a TD or less. Last
season's finale was a one-point defeat, and this season they've
lost by four, seven and three.
Rowan is giving up minus-18 yards per game rushing, making
Mary Hardin-Baylor (6.3 yards per game) and Mount Union (15 yards
per game) look like they're getting gashed. Well, not really. In
fact, these three at the top sure shows a relationship between
stopping the run and winning.
Hot: Sul Ross State, 2-1. Not: Augustana, 1-2. The Lobos,
however, by virtue of a 45-2 loss to Mary Hardin-Baylor, have been
outscored while the Vikings, with a 53-7 win at MacMurray in the
books, are outscoring their opposition.
Wilkes is already alone at the top of the MAC. Without a
stumble, they'll stay, as they've already knocked off top contender
Delaware Valley.
Hampden-Sydney and Guilford scored 92 points last year in a
47-45 game, and came back with 89 this time around, going
46-43.
Last week's upset of the week: Had to be Carleton over
Bethel, but there were a couple other eye-opening results. I
thought North Carolina Wesleyan beating Methodist 15-9 was
one.
Carleton has been great on offense so far, but let's see how
the Knights do against St. John's before we crown them
contenders.
UW-Platteville (2-1), King's and Ripon (both 3-1) are among
the mildly surprising starts.
For print, radio and
Internet journalists
Keith McMillan is available, by appointment, on Thursdays and
Fridays to talk Division III football. For more information, e-mail
Keith.
Attention
SIDs
As always, Around the Nation requests media guides and any
other aids in helping us cover your school or conference this
season. We are also interested in seeing gam e tapes from schools
we aren't able to see in person. For more information, contact
Keith McMillan at keith@d3football.com, or
snail mail to D3football.com, 13055 Carolyn Forest Dr., Woodbridge,
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Links to online media guides are now preferred over mail. In
addition, please do not add my e-mail address to your regular
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have your information posted on our front page and your team's
page. For more information on how that works and how we can help
each other, contact publisher and editor Pat Coleman
at info@d3football.com. Thank
you.
Confidence key to regaining success
Sep 28, 2006