Coaches often say a team’s biggest improvement comes
between its first and second games.
Seventy-four of 151 teams in action last week lost. Forget
simply improving. They want to avoid a demoralizing 0-2
start.
We had a fun Week 1 from top (Salisbury’s 32-14 win at
then-No. 15 Washington & Jefferson) to bottom (Concordia, Ill.
snapped a 20-game losing streak and Menlo won after 15 consecutive
losses). As Week 2 approaches, there are quite a few games to watch
in and around the Top 25, including the season debuts of No. 6 Mary
Hardin-Baylor, No. 7 Linfield and No. 9 Occidental.
Sometimes, however, it’s just as intriguing to watch
the teams who haven’t had much recent success.
Concordia’s Cougars, for instance, won for the first time
since 2003 with a 13-3 victory against Blackburn. Their 20-game
streak was the country’s second-longest. Menlo’s streak
was the fourth longest, and they sent McMurry back to Texas with a
14-0 loss.
Let’s dig a little deeper to find this week’s
Cougars and Oaks by examining seven below-the-radar games,
including a pair between 0-1 teams trying to avoid a losing streak
to start the year.
1. Principia at Macalester: Good for these 0-1 teams, one of
them finally will win. The Panthers lost eight in a row last year
before beating Trinity Bible, and haven’t beaten a team other
than Trinity Bible in regulation since October 2003.
Macalester’s 10-0 loss to Beloit last Saturday brought their
losing streak to 15 games. Since going 5-5 in 2002, their first
season after the leaving the MIAC to become an independent, the
Scots are just 2-26. Though Principia is 7-21 in that span, the
Scots are probably the favorite on Saturday.
2. Dubuque at Wisconsin Lutheran: It’s time for the
Spartans to manifest the potential they showed since the last half
of last season. They were competitive (down 27-20 in the fourth
quarter) in a 34-20 loss to UW-Platteville in the opener, but they
allowed the formerly pass-happy Pioneers to rush for 186 yards
while grinding out just 54 of their own. The Warriors, whose only
win last season was against 0-10 Tri-State, must forget a
season-opening 54-0 defeat against Valparaiso and score some
points. They averaged just 12 per game last season, despite an
offense not among Division III’s 70 worst by yardage. This is
the second of four home games to start the year and a chance for
the Warriors to build a little momentum.
3. Worcester State at Worcester Polytech: The Lancers come
off a moral victory in a 10-7 Friday night loss to NEFC power
Curry. The Engineers, a geographic rival from the Liberty League,
open their season at home on Boynton Hill with defensive
coordinator Greg Crum, who held the position with the Lancers for
the past three years.
The U.S. Merchant Marine Academy got a head start on Coast Guard last week. This week is Coast Guard's only non-conference game. |
4. Coast Guard at Merchant Marine: The Bears (0-0) closed
2005 on a seven-game losing streak and play their rival (better
known as Kings Point, or U.S.M.M.A.) before playing eight games as
a member of the NEFC. The Mariners (1-0 after a 29-19 win vs. Kean)
have won seven of the past eight Secretaries’ Cups. The 26th
battle for it is the first this early in the season, and in fact,
it’s back-to-back Cup games for Coast Guard, which ended last
season with a 21-5 loss to Kings Point.
5. Salve Regina at SUNY-Maritime: We’ll stay near the
water, as Salve Regina (Newport, R.I.) and new coach Chris
Robertson look to break the Seahawks’ streak of four 2-win
seasons. The Privateers will use the triple option as they look for
their first win ever in the opener for both. Twenty-two seniors
give Salve much more experience than Maritime, which it beat 41-7
in a scrimmage last season.
6. Kenyon at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps: We’ve got to
mention a matchup of Lords and Stags, don’t we? Kenyon comes
off a 57-31 win at Grinnell with its second of four consecutive
road games to begin the season, and by far its most ambitious trip
(2,270 miles by Mapquest). Every SCIAC team in action plays an
out-of-state opponent this week, and only Cal Lutheran is on the
road (at Pacific Lutheran). But the Stags have one of the best
chances to win, and give the SCIAC a leg up on the NCAC, a
conference rated one spot above in ATN’s 2006 conference
rankings (Aug. 30).
7. Carnegie Mellon at Grove City: This one’s not on
here because of the teams’ lack of wins. This just
isn’t where you want to be if you plan on seeing some fancy
aerial fireworks. These two old-school Western Pennsylvania
run-based teams were ranked 220th and 223rd in passing last season,
with Grove City’s 87 yards per game six more than the
Tartans. Don’t expect them to change their ways, as Grove
City coach Chris Smith begins his 22nd season and CMU’s Rich
Lackner begins his 21st. The Wolverines struggled to score at all
last season, averaging 12 points per game and never going above 21.
The Tartans scored erratically (all but 62 of their 248 points came
in four high-scoring games), and opened this season with a 27-6 win
against Hiram. They passed for — get this — 87 yards in
the win.
It takes
time
Coachspeak it may be, but Week 1 reminded us that success is
earned. Over time.
Averett got what they signed up for against Mount Union: an
up-close look at how a championship Division III team
plays.
LaGrange (47-7 loss to Maryville) and Morrisville State (36-6
To Buffalo State) were unsuccessful in their Division III debuts,
but they can look to second-year Becker (20-10 loser to Utica) to
measure their progress.
Fourth-year Huntingdon is not quite ready for the Division
III elite, as Ithaca proved, 31-12. It’s a heck of a road
trip, for an opener, but Ithaca was replacing quarterback Josh
Felicetti. The Bombers did it with defense, holding the Hawks to
minus-4 yards rushing .
Perhaps this gets us to re-examine the Trinity (Texas) game
last year and count it as a strike against the Tigers rather than a
point for the Hawks. Then again, this year’s Tigers rolled
East Texas Baptist 41-0 on Saturday, so they’re back in my
top 25, for now.
How our 1-234 performed in
Week 1
Fans who purchased Kickoff ’06 got our exclusive 1-234
ranking of every team in Division III. To see how accurate it was,
I looked at this week’s final scores to see how well the
rankings functioned as a predictive index.
The answer is: pretty well.
Of Week 1’s 84 games, 67 were played between Division
III teams. In those contests, teams Kickoff ’06 ranked higher
were 52-15 (.777), and three of the losses were by teams barely
ranked below their opponent.
No. 228 Concordia (Ill.) beat No. 227 Blackburn, No. 183
Catholic beat No. 182 Shenandoah 17-6 and No. 158 Cornell beat No.
153 Northwestern (Minn.) 30-14.
To be fair, however, No. 142 Newport News beat No. 143 North
Carolina Wesleyan 21-20 and No. 190 Hartwick beat No. 191 Endicott
30-28.
The week's only overtime salvaged a win for the rankings, as
No. 162 Case Western Reserve beat No. 186 Oberlin 29-23.
The biggest upsets were No. 210 Menlo over No. 119 McMurry
14-0 and No. 73 Salisbury over No. 15 Washington & Jefferson
32-14. But our rankings were a bit upset when No. 37 Trinity
(Texas) beat No. 53 East Texas Baptist 41-0. Conversely, No. 178
Illinois College was way too close to No. 74 Millikin, who won
24-20.
Muhlenberg's 24-14 win against The College of New Jersey only
made me think of high blood pressure. It was No. 141 over
98.
Poll positions/My
26-35
As one of D3football.com's 25 poll voters, I occasionally
share insights on the process, and almost always reveal the 10
teams I rank beyond the 25 I vote for. Doing so gives me a ready
pool of teams to examine when Top 25 teams do not impress, and it
also keeps several teams on the radar, with a chance to earn their
way into the poll with strong wins.
I voted for six teams this week that I did not make top 25 to
start the season: Trinity (Texas), Ithaca, UW-Oshkosh, UW-La
Crosse, North Central and Wartburg. All except North Central earned
their way in with big Week 1 wins.
I dropped Washington & Jefferson, Christopher Newport and
Concordia-Moorhead following losses, and changed my position on
Wheaton and RPI without them having played a game. Howard Payne
also backslid out of my top 25 after a 7-0 non-division win. The
Engineers gained ground in the poll while the Thunder and Yellow
Jackets suffered slightly.
My rationale on Wheaton was that I'd seen North Central beat
them last season and would need to see some reason to be voting for
them and not the Cardinals, even though I based my preseason votes
heavily on returning starters and at what positions. For RPI, I'm
on record saying they'll win the Liberty League, but I couldn't
bring myself to vote for three teams from that New York-based
conference and none from the Empire 8. As I moved Ithaca in, I slid
RPI out, knowing it'll only be a couple of weeks before they play
Hobart and I can have a reason to vote (or not vote) for
them.
My 26-35 is reflective of teams I strongly considered voting
for. This week they are in order, though some weeks they aren't and
nearly every week I spend much less time considering their proper
order than I do the Top 25. If you don't see your team, remember I
may be voting for them, or I might not be considering them at
all.
26. RPI, 27. UW-Stout, 28. Wheaton, 29. Augustana, 30.
Central, 31. St. John Fisher, 32. Concordia-Moorhead (harsh
punishment for losing to a Division II team in the opener, albeit
unimpressively), 33. Salisbury, 34. Howard Payne, 35. Texas
Lutheran, 36. Thiel, 37. Washington & Jefferson, 38. UW-Eau
Claire.
Streak
watch
This regular ATN department is back to help keep an eye on
the country's longest runs. The winners side is smaller than usual,
since last season's champion didn't go undefeated and most of the
best teams lost in the playoffs, double-digit streaks at this point
were nearly impossible to find. But there is some building momentum
around Division III football, mostly with teams who finished 2005
strongly. Trinity (Conn.) has been able to compile the nation's
longest streak by far without having to face any powerful playoff
opponents, as a member of the exclusive NESCAC.
Division III's longest win streaks:
Trinity (Conn.) (30 consecutive wins, last loss at Williams,
30-13, Sept. 28, 2002; 0-0 in 2006)
Mount Union (9 consecutive wins, last loss vs. Ohio Northern,
21-14, Oct. 22, 2005; 1-0 in 2006)
St. Norbert (8 consecutive wins, last loss vs. Monmouth,
28-20, Sept. 17, 2005; 1-0 in 2006)
Cal Lutheran (7 consecutive wins, last loss at Occidental,
41-9, Sept. 24, 2005; 0-0 in 2006)
Howard Payne (7 consecutive wins, last loss at
Hardin-Simmons, 45-20, Oct. 1, 2005; 1-0 in 2006)
After those five, the list may be incomplete, but I have
Williams and Bridgewater State with six wins in a row, Chicago,
Guilford, Mass-Dartmouth and Washington U. with five and Colby and
Methodist with four.
The longest active losing streaks:
Heidelberg (26 consecutive losses, last win against Marietta
on Oct. 4, 2003; 0-0 in 2006)
Macalester (15 consecutive losses, last win against Knox Oct.
2, 2004, 0-1 in 2006)
Massachusetts Maritime (14 consecutive losses, last win
against Framingham State Oct. 2, 2004, 0-0 in 2006)
Juniata (13 consecutive losses, last win at Lycoming, 14-7,
Oct. 30, 2004; 0-1 in 2006)
Tri-State (11 consecutive losses, last win vs. Kalamazoo,
21-14, Nov. 13, 2004, 0-1 in 2006)
Nichols (11 consecutive losses, last win vs. MIT, 35-14, Oct.
23, 2004, 0-1 in 2006)
Wesleyan (10 consecutive losses, last win vs. Bowdoin, 25-21,
Oct. 30, 2004; 0-1 in 2006)
Five games to
watch
No. 6 Mary Hardin-Baylor at Christopher Newport and No. 8
Wesley at Averett: The Captains and Cougars continue the ambitious
USAC run at top 10 teams, but the pair was beaten by a combined
96-16 vs. No 1 Mount Union and No. 3 Rowan last week. Christopher
Newport plays its home opener against the Crusaders, playing for
the first time since a 46-36 playoff loss to Wesley. Both USAC
teams should be careful to keep their top 10 experiences positive;
if not, demoralization could be the outcome.
No. 21 North Central vs. Concordia (Wis.): The Cardinals play
for the first time since a two-point playoff elimination, and
quarterback Kam Kniss and 'mates have had all offseason to stew
about that. The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off a nice win
against Simpson, usually a decent IIAC team. A win here would be a
huge boost, not only to playoff hopes, but to the profile of the
IBFC.
No. 24 Trinity (Texas) at Texas Lutheran: The SCAC power
dispatched East Texas Baptist with force last week, and gets
another ASC upstart to measure itself by. The Bulldogs, though,
were 45-0 winners last week, so both come in riding high. For one
team, it’ll be a short ride.
RPI at Endicott: This could be a playoff preview, as both the
Engineers and Gulls are possible conference winners. There may not
be a game this week with more experience on the field, as Endicott
returns 10 starters on each side of the ball and RPI puts 11
returning offensive starters on the field.
Upset special (1-0 after Wartburg beat Monmouth last week)
— Thiel at Alfred: The Tomcats are a defending conference
champion while the Saxons fly largely under the radar behind Ithaca
and St. John Fisher in the Empire 8. This could be Alfred’s
breakout win. Eight starters are back on both sides of the ball,
and the Saxons need a defensive performance like last season (14
points per game) to slow Steve Minton and the Tomcats, who scored
seven points in their opener last week.
Surprisingly good (0-1 after Wesley scored the first 34
points in a 41-14 win over Waynesburg): No. 25 Whitworth at
Redlands: It’s a long trip from the Inland Northwest to
Southern California, and the Pirates will quickly show us if they
are probable playoff material. Whitworth, which won 52-49 in their
last visit to Redlands, returns 10 defensive starters, but the unit
gave up 29 points per game last year.
Also keep an eye on: Baldwin-Wallace at No. 15 Augustana,
Hope at No. 17 Central, No. 20 Coe at Aurora, No. 22 Wabash at
Franklin, No. 23 Wilkes at Widener, Albion at Wheaton, Brockport
State at Salisbury, Defiance at Adrian, Fitchburg State at Curry,
Guilford at Methodist, Luther at St. Olaf, Ohio Northern at
Millikin, Sewanee at Huntingdon.
Who
are those guys?
Around the Nation tracks Division III’s performance
against teams from the NAIA, Division II and Division I-AA, the
latter usually non-scholarship programs like us. We just track it
for fun, and to help you figure out who those schools on the
schedule you don’t recognize are. What the numbers mean is
for you all to slug it out over on Post Patterns, and believe me, a
pretty interesting grudge match went down this offseason on D3 vs.
NAIA. (But unlike most message board beefs, I think you’ll
actually be smarter for reading that one).
For the record, the 2005 tallies were 7-10 vs. Division I-AA,
7-11 vs. Division II and 19-14 vs. NAIA. (The NAIA tally does not
include games from the cross-classification UMAC, particularly
against Trinity Bible, which is not a member of any association,
nor do we count unofficial Division III member Newport News
Apprentice’s games in the tallies, although we do follow the
Shipbuilders as a member of the Atlantic Central Football
Conference.)
UW-La Crosse’s win over Division I-AA scholarship South
Dakota State highlighted our opening week, but it was a solid
all-around performance, except against Division II. Two wins and a
loss were against teams ranked in the NAIA preseason coaches poll
(Thiel beat No. 20 Geneva 7-0, St. Olaf beat No. 24 Valley City
State 31-14 and No. 19 St. Ambrose edged Loras 17-15). None of the
I-AA teams were ranked, although it had been rumored the
Jackrabbits who lost to La Crosse were ranked. (In fact, they were
picked fourth in their five-team conference).
Week 1 out-of-division records are below. Listed rankings for
teams from other divisions are from I-AA.org, The Sports Network
(their mid-major Top 10 ranks I-AA non-scholarship teams),
D2football.com and NAIAfootball.net.
With assists from Larry LaStarza of The Laz Index and Post
Patterns Hall of Famer Ralph Turner, here’s the Week 2
lineup:
vs. Division I-AA (3-1 in Week 1)
Hanover at Butler
No. 3 (TSN) Dayton at Wittenberg
St. Peter at Western Connecticut
vs. Division II (0-4 in Week 1)
UW-Oshkosh at Minn.-Mankato
Ouachita Baptist at East Texas Baptist
Western Oregon at No. 7 Linfield
Seton Hill at McDaniel
vs. NAIA (7-2 in Week 1)
No. 17 Black Hills State at UW-Eau Claire
Southern Oregon at Menlo
Southwest Assemblies of God at Sul Ross State
Martin Luther at Waldorf
North Carolina Wesleyan at Southern Virginia
But don’t quote
me
The chatter’s been going pretty consistently since
Saturday afternoon on the Instant Reactions to Week 1 Results post
on our blog, The Daily Dose. A lot of the best opinions from this
week are there.
Playoff down payment: Out-of-division results aren’t
supposed to affect the Division III playoff selection committee,
but I can’t see how — at least unofficially —
UW-La Crosse’s win over Division I-AA scholarship program
South Dakota State won’t benefit the WIAC somehow come
November. Coupled with UW-Whitewater’s strong run to the
Stagg Bowl last season, the conference reminded Division III why
D3football.com consistently rates it our strongest league. That
should have a spillover effect onto whichever team is conference
runner-up this season, be it UW-Oshkosh, UW-Stout, UW-Eau Claire,
La Crosse or someone else. If the champion and second-place
finisher are close to meeting the criteria, I believe they could
get two teams in the field with strong seeds, perhaps home games.
But of course, it’s early.
Attention
SIDs
As always, Around the Nation requests media guides and any
other aids in helping us cover your school or conference this
season. We are also interested in seeing gam e tapes from schools
we aren’t able to see in person. For more information,
contact Keith McMillan at keith@d3football.com, or
snail mail to D3football.com, 13055 Carolyn Forest Dr., Woodbridge,
Va., 22192.
Links to online media guides are now preferred over mail. In
addition, please do not add my e-mail address to your regular
release lists, but instead use our news release capabilities to
have your information posted on our front page and your
team’s page. For more information on how that works and how
we can help each other, contact publisher and editor Pat Coleman
at info@d3football.com. Thank
you.
