We play for fun, but we watch for the drama.

Like any season, 2005 has been full of it on the field, but we’ve received a couple of administrative shockers as well. Before we get into five things not to be caught off guard by and an Around the Nation full of number-crunching, let’s take a brief look back at September’s biggest surprises, from least-stunning to most:

5. We’ve had the CCIW pegged as a strong conference from the start (fifth in our preseason conference rankings), but this was unexpected. Its eight teams begin conference play this week, which means they’ve spent the first month of the season playing teams from other conferences. And nine times out of ten, they’ve been winning.

Six CCIW teams are 3-0 right now, and the league’s 2-1 team, Augustana, is as strong a title bet as any. Illinois Wesleyan has accounted for more than half the conference’s losses so far by starting 1-2. CCIW teams are 21-3 (.875) overall.

What makes this such a big surprise isn’t that Top 25 teams Carthage or Wheaton, or even the rising program at North Central, is unbeaten. We can understand Millikin winning its first three as well, but to see Elmhurst do it in dominating fashion (outscoring opponents 128-37) and to see North Park start without a blemish is what really puts this on the surprise list.

4. Aside from NESCAC teams which just got underway last week, most of the rest of Division III has three or four games in the books. Of those 221 teams, 46 are unbeaten and 34 are winless.

It’s no shock to see Top 25 or 2004 playoff teams among the loss-free group, and even Wabash, Thiel, Wesley, Albright, St. Olaf and Adrian don’t look out of place there.

But Worcester Polytech at 3-0? Centre, Monmouth and Ferrum 4-0? Shoot, there are as many 3-0 teams in the NEFC Bogan (Bridgewater State, Fitchburg State and Maine Maritime) as there are in the WIAC (UW-Oshkosh, UW-Stout and UW-Whitewater). Independent Huntingdon and Rockford are also off to perfect starts.

But the group of unbeatens doesn’t quite amaze until we look at the list of teams that haven’t won. Wittenberg is one of four NCAC schools off to an 0-3 start, but it was the only one ranked No. 10 in the preseason by Sports Illustrated (unranked by D3football.com). Springfield, after its overtime loss to Alfred on Saturday, fell to 0-3, unfamiliar territory for the former East Coast power, ranked as high as No. 5 last season by D3football.com, and No. 4 as recently as last Oct. 19 by the AFCA. Pacific Lutheran, 0-2 with No. 1 Linfield next up, appears to be moving further away from its national championship past.

But probably our most stunning start is at Emory and Henry, where we assumed former Mount Union defensive coordinator Don Montgomery would have the quick fix for the slide that began in legendary coach Lou Wacker’s final years. The Wasps returned primary players from an offense that averaged about 30 points per game in 2004. That with Montgomery’s defensive background sounded like a recipe for a fast start, but it’s been slow going at Emory & Henry. Not only are the Wasps 0-3, among three once-proud winless teams in the sliding ODAC, but they have managed just 20 points. Only three teams that have played multiple games have had less success scoring.

3. Upsets happen all the time, from the mild to the stunning, and the potential for them makes the game great for even the most down-on-its-luck team. A few early-season results stand out, like Bethany defeating Franklin and Marshall, Grove City beating Muhlenberg and La Verne topping Puget Sound. And Otterbein’s nail-biting win over rival Capital was a surprise, not to mention a blow to the playoff hopes of a team that opened with a 54-0 win, but still has to play Ohio Northern and Mount Union.

But we consulted the Massey Ratings to see if Around the Nation’s biggest upset jived with the mathematically least-likely result. And it did.

No sooner did we praise Salisbury in this very space than they dropped a stunner to Montclair State. We’d presumed it was going to be an off year for Rick Giancola’s Red Hawks after a loss to Frostburg State the week before.

Perhaps we should have listened to Salisbury coach Sherman Wood when he talked about how tough the ACFC would be this season. After Newport News stayed within a touchdown of Brockport State, which was within a touchdown of Salisbury, and Frostburg State beat a Montclair State team that the Sea Gulls could not, we thoroughly expect there to be no smooth sailing in the East Coast’s most geographically expansive conference. Not even for 4-0 Wesley, and not for Salisbury, which lost quarterback Dustin Johnson to a torn ACL. Should be fun to watch.

For the record, the Massey Ratings’ 10 least likely results included the Golden Eagles-Shipbuilders game and the Bobcats-Red Hawks game, as well as Hanover’s 12-7 win over Thomas More and Lawrence’s 38-36 triumph over Carroll.

2. We knew Ohio Northern was due punishment for its 2003 illegal practices, but much of Division III was broadsided when the Top 10 Polar Bears received a postseason ban as part of the NCAA ruling.

In a way, for a new coaching staff and at least half a roster of kids that could not have participated in the illegal practices, it was an inherently unfair decision. It was also argued that the punishment didn’t fit the crime, especially after the school let go the coach who held the practices and conducted its own investigation into the infractions. But the NCAA hit the institution where it hurt.

For now, Ohio Northern’s playoff hopes apparently remain alive while the ruling is appealed. But if the Polar Bears finish 9-1 in the OAC, easily one of the nation’s strongest conferences — or if they win against their coach’s alma mater, Mount Union — it would certainly be a surprise to not have them in the playoff field. (And I’m sure the team with the 33rd-best chance at getting in would welcome it).

1. Lewis and Clark abandoning its Northwest Conference schedule is the biggest shocker of the season so far. We knew it wasn’t going well for the Pioneers, who put a small roster on the field against a conference full of powerhouses, including a Puget Sound team that appeared to be leaving cellar-dwelling behind. But when they pulled the plug on five of their games in early September, both the late notice and the games they chose to cancel caught Division III off guard.

Two of the five NWC teams which suddenly had open dates have been able to fill them, but it remains to be seen whether there was damage done between the Pioneers and their league mates, or whether their rivals will support Lewis and Clark as it tries to save football.

Five things not to be caught off guard by
Around the Nation would never rehash a bunch of old news and send you off into the rest of the season blind. Here are things to watch for as 2005 progresses:

5. Don’t be surprised if most of the great rivalry games are duds once more. A lot of the longtime traditional rivals appear headed in opposite directions yet again (i.e. Monmouth and Knox, Hampden-Sydney and Randolph-Macon). Many of the rivalries developed out of recent competitiveness appear finished as well (i.e Mount Union 70, John Carroll 0).

As long as footballs are snapped, all won’t be lost though. We’ll watch for new rivalries to develop between competitive teams, and perhaps even hold out hope for a Johnnie-Tommie nail-biter, or a last-second score or stop in Coast Guard-Kings Point, Moravian-Muhlenberg, RPI-Union or Amherst-Williams.

And luckily, what have become probably the two best rivalry games in the nation look competitive again. DePauw and Wabash should each challenge for their league title and rights to the Monon Bell, while Ithaca could have a playoff berth wrapped up by the time it meets Cortland State for the Cortaca Jug. The Red Dragons have delightfully played spoiler before, and could chase a bid themselves. Who knows how playoff implications could affect the energy around this year’s game?

4. Don’t be surprised if some of the same old faces show up in the postseason.
Despite what we said above about Ohio Northern’s chances, Mount Union’s scores have them looking as formidable as ever. And all of the OAC competition has a conference loss already except the Polar Bears, who may not be postseason-eligible. All that adds up to a likely first-round thanks-for-playing for some poor Pool C team or league champion from the Midwest.

3. Don’t be surprised if the SCAC ends in an unbreakable tie. 
DePauw and Trinity (Texas), whose game last season wasn’t decided until the last 10 seconds, were cancelled this past weekend by Hurricane Rita. With no makeup date available, the SCAC could end in a tie. If there were only one available playoff berth, it could really get ugly.

2. Don’t be surprised if two-loss teams not only make the playoffs in the expanded field, but win games.
Since the expansion to 28 teams in 1999 allowed for teams to have a shot at winning the national championship without winning their conference title, Pool C playoff teams have represented themselves well. In the 21 automatic-qualifier conferences, runners-up could benefit from the field going to 32 this year. That might mean a bid or two for two-loss teams that played difficult schedules. In those cases, well-tested teams may very well move on. Last year, all three Pool C teams won in the first round and one played in the national final. 

Teams from Pool B conferences (those without an automatic bid, the ACFC, NWC, PAC, UAA and the 18 independents) will also have a better shot at getting in with the four extra bids. Three of those conferences could send two teams, and there are a pair of unbeaten independents who could stay that way.

But of the 10 teams that made last year’s playoffs with two or more losses, only one each was in Pools B and C. Eight conference champions made the field with multiple losses, and several surely will again this year.

What the extra bids could mean is more competitive matchups in most of the first round, but also a greater opportunity for a pair of teams with blemished records to meet. In which case one must move on.

Where losses used to dash postseason hopes under the old 16-team system, a chance for redemption remains with 32 bids. And teams that have had their wake-up calls in the regular season sometimes come into the playoffs very focused. Just ask last year’s Mary Hardin-Baylor team.

1. Don’t be stunned if that epic Linfield-Mount Union matchup never materializes.
We thought we might see it in Salem last year, but we might actually see a repeat of last season instead. 

On the road to the Stagg Bowl, even if a strong team comes out of the MIAC, SCIAC or WIAC, it would probably be placed in the West bracket, possibly having to play at Linfield. The same could be assumed for the CCIW champion in the North at Mount Union.

But where the Texas teams have reached the national championship-caliber level, not as much stands in their way, if last season’s South Region playoff results are any indication. And we really don’t know what we’ll get out of the East.

In other words, we should expect what we expect from playoffs, which is the unexpected. Certainly good teams could play great games in the right postseason matchup and knock off one of the big dogs.
Although we expect everyone in Salem to be wearing purple again, judging by the top four in our poll, we’re getting too far ahead of ourselves if we’re already eager for the Wildcats-Purple Raiders clash.

Numbers crunching
To keep my post-by-Wednesday promise, I probably should have been writing instead of analyzing so many numbers on Tuesday. But what’s done is done, so I might as well share some of the things I found:

-> William Paterson earned the fun distinction of ‘team with winning record outscored by most points.’ The 2-1 Pioneers have scored just 38 points, and have allowed 14 more than that.

-> I spot 23 teams who have scored and given up nearly the same amount of points, within 10. None of them are undefeated or unbeaten, and only Brockport State (73-76) and St. Norbert (102-111) have played four games. Both are 2-2.

-> The CCIW’s six unbeaten teams are impressive, and we mentioned the WIAC and NEFC Bogan having three 3-0 teams each. But so does the Liberty League in Hobart, Union and WPI, and three more of its teams are 2-1. In our out-of-conference record comparison below, you’ll notice that the league, ranked low in the middle tier of conferences, is performing well so far, even against teams from stronger leagues.

-> In the MWC, Monmouth and Grinnell have allowed 110 points, while St. Norbert has given up 111. If their defenses are equal, for the moment and the sake of argument, then it goes to show how much difference it makes to be good all around. Each is allowing nearly four TDs a game, but the Scots are 4-0 with 172 points scored, the Green Knights are 2-2 with 102 and the Pioneers are 1-3 with 77.

-> The most defensive league right now is the CCIW, with four of eight teams allowing 37 points or fewer in three games (averaging about 12 points or fewer), and two more 52 or fewer (about 17 a game). Carthage leads the way with 26 points allowed, the eighth-best three-game total in the nation.

-> Not far behind is the PAC, with four of its seven teams allowing fewer than 45 points in three or four games. At the top of the heap is 3-1 conference newcomer Thomas More, whose 37 points allowed are fewer than 10 per game.

-> The least defensive league is the IBFC. Though half of its teams have played four games, six of them have surrendered 100 or more points, while only two have scored more than 60. Aurora has the best defensive average, at 25 points allowed per game. That gets the famously defense-free HCAC off the hook, especially since Mt. St. Joseph has given up just 25 points so far.

-> Twenty-one teams have allowed 40 points or fewer in three games, and another handful have shown great defenses in two or four outings. Among the most impressive three-game totals are Mount Union’s 14 points allowed, Wabash’s 15 and Capital’s 17, especially since the points against the Crusaders all came in their lone non-shutout against Otterbein. But maybe the most impressive defensive feats belong to Johns Hopkins. By allowing just 13 points, the Blue Jays have been able to soar to a 3-0 start while scoring only 42. Westfield State is in a similar boat, having scored 30 and allowed 33, starting 2-1.

-> Twenty-six teams have scored 40 or fewer in three games, and another handful have four-game totals around there. The most troubling signs of lack of offense are at Hiram (13 points), Framingham State (just 14, despite breaking a long losing streak to start the year) and Crown (14). Fans of Mass-Dartmouth (20), Muskingum (23) and Franklin and Marshall (27) must also be waiting for the breakout game, where the offense eclipses its season total in one day.

-> Despite the success for Rockford and Huntingdon, it’s still slow going for most independents. Eleven have three or more losses already, and they account for seven of the 34 winless teams.

Conference call
Here’s a brief look at how our conference rankings from our preseason preview edition are holding up. The list includes 24 of the 25 conferences we rank, in order of current out-of-conference winning percentage, with non-conference record so far and our preseason ranking.

1. CCIW, 21-3, .875, 5th
2. ACFC, 10-3, .769, 11th
3. LL, 13-5, .722, 19th
4. OAC, 7-3, .700, 3rd 
T5. PAC, 12-6, .667, 10th
T5. NJAC, 10-5, .667, 7th
7. SCAC, 13-7, .650, 13th 
8. E8, 11-6, .647, 9th
9. SCIAC, 9-5, .643, 18th
10. IIAC, 10-6, .625, 12th
11. WIAC, 13-10, .591, 1st
T12. MIAC, 8-6, .571, 6th
T12. MWC, 4-3, .571, 21st
14. CC, 11-11, .500, 15th 
15. NWC, 7-8, .466, 2nd
T16. USAC, 8-10, .444, 14th 
T16. ASC, 4-5, .444, 4th
18. HCAC, 11-14, .440, 22nd
19. UAA, 6-9, .400, 23rd
20. NCAC, 11-18, .379, 17th
21. MIAA, 8-16, .333, 20th
22. ODAC, 6-14, .300, 16th
23. MAC, 2-5, .285, 8th
24. IBFC, 3-17, .150, 24th

Note: The NEFC, NESCAC, UMAC or independents are not included in this out-of-conference roundup. We have independents marked at 19-43 (.306) overall.

Five games to watch
Okay, now on to the fun stuff. The only numbers you’ll see as we look ahead to the weekend are Top 25 rankings. Before you go predicting a bunch of upsets and a Top 25 shakeup, take a look at how many highly ranked teams are at home this weekend. The top six teams in the country and 12 of the top 15 won’t have to travel. There are a trio of trips worth watching in the CCIW though, where two ranked teams (No. 16 Carthage and No. 18 Wheaton) go on the road for challenges, and where North Park will arrive at Augustana with the better record.

No. 21 Capital at No. 3 Mount Union:
This game’s been hyped before only to be a blowout, but what else is new in Alliance? The thing about this year’s game is it’s a chance for the Crusaders to get a game back, after losing in the OAC already. Plus, since the Purple Raiders haven’t lost a conference game since 1994, any chance for a good team to knock them off is a game we have to pay attention to.

No. 23 Bridgewater (Va.) at No. 22 Hampden-Sydney: These teams are hugged up in the poll because no one knows where to rank them until they play each other. Neither defense has played well, so if one draws its best performance of the year, or at least an opportunistic one, it would help. The script is familiar: The Eagles come in with an early-season loss and appear to need this victory more than the Tigers, but Hampden-Sydney might not have the strength of schedule to overcome another runner-up finish in the ODAC, should it finish 9-1. There does not appear to be much help around the conference for Saturday’s loser.

No. 19 UW-Eau Claire at No. 10 UW-Whitewater: This is the classic ‘we’ll start to sort the WIAC out’ weekend, as No. 14 UW-La Crosse also heads to Stevens Point and UW-River Falls visits UW-Oshkosh. For now, Blugolds at Warhawks appears to be the best matchup, but we know how quickly things can change in this conference.

Thiel at No. 6 Washington & Jefferson: The Tomcats started sloppily last season, and never quite got a chance to measure themselves toe-to-toe against the Presidents. If Thiel can avoid the early turnovers and special teams mishaps, they’ll get a better idea of where they stand, if not an upset.

Brockport State at No. 13 Ithaca: You never quite know what you’re getting out of the Golden Eagles, but at least this ACFC-Empire 8 game will give us a good way to measure Wesley and Salisbury against St. John Fisher and the Bombers.

Also keep an eye on: PLU at No. 1 Linfield, Capital at No. 3 Mount Union, Howard Payne at No. 4 Hardin-Simmons, TCNJ at No. 5 Rowan, No. 7 Ohio Northern at John Carroll, No. 16 Carthage at Millikin, No. 18 Wheaton at North Central, Williams at Trinity (Conn.), Monmouth at Lake Forest, Luther at Coe, Shenandoah at Christopher Newport, Wabash at Ohio Wesleyan.

Road trip of the week
The one that completely jumps off the schedule page is Carnegie Mellon at Colorado College. You don’t need to know a heck of a lot about geography to know the Pittsburgh area is a hike from Colorado Springs.

When most schools, even the isolated ones in California, Texas and Oregon, are staying in state or staying close to home this weekend, the Spartans are going mountain climbing, in search of another W near the Rockies.

Recommended road trips of the week
Pat Coleman and I are taking the trip I honestly feel is this week’s best.

From a home base in Chicago, we can get to Perkins Stadium, Division III’s biggest, at UW-Whitewater for their 1 p.m game with UW-Eau Claire. Both are ranked in our polls and should be eager to begin chasing the WIAC title. 

And that leaves plenty of time to get back to North Central, where the upstart Cardinals are taking on perennial top 25 Wheaton at 7 p.m. in a battle of teams that both could be ranked.

It’ll be hard to do better than seeing four top 25-caliber teams in one trip, but I put some reasonably fun and very doable trips together for you anyway:

A pair of Friday night games make two-game trips easy. Westfield State at Worcester State at 7 p.m. makes a fine warm-up for Williams at Trinity (Conn.) the next day.

After taking in New Jersey at Rowan under the lights, your choice of 1 p.m. Saturday games (Eastern time, of course) spans from Upstate New York to the nation’s capital and beyond. We recommend Moravian at nearby Widener. 

Some of our Cleveland-area fans might appreciate how lucky they are, but it’s rare the exciting game kicks off earlier in a two-game day. But Ohio Northern at John Carroll at 1, then Defiance at Case Western Reserve at 6 p.m. would make an interesting trip.

Who are those guys?
As many teams begin to face conference opponents week after week, our teams won’t need to venture out of division as often. But when they do, our friend Ralph Turner will track them on our message board, Post Patterns. For those of you that don’t get over there, Around the Nation also keeps you abreast of how Division III teams did while playing out-of-division in Week 4, and which Week 5 games feature unfamiliar teams on the opposite sideline.

Against Division I-AA: 1-0 in Week 4, 4-6 in 2005
This week’s opponent: San Diego at Menlo

Against Division II: 0-1 in Week 4, 4-9 in 2005
This week’s opponents: None

Against NAIA: 1-3 in Week 4, 8-13 in 2005
This week’s opponents:
Waldorf at UW-Stout
Wesley at Seton Hill
Whitworth at Eastern Oregon

Streak watch
With its come-from-behind victory over Randolph-Macon, Catholic broke a 14-game losing streak dating to Nov. 8, 2003. The Cardinals also just left three teams among those who haven’t won in either 2004 or ’05. They are:

Heidelberg (19 consecutive losses, last win against Marietta on Oct. 4, 2003, 0-3 in 2005)
Hiram (16 consecutive losses, last win against Kenyon Oct. 25, 2003, 0-3 in 2005)
Concordia (Ill.) (14 consecutive losses, last win against Eureka Nov. 8, 2003, 0-4 in 2005) 

Trinity (Conn.) extended its win streak to 23 games by taking its opener 47-0 against Bates. Linfield did not play, and puts its 14 consecutive wins against rival Pacific Lutheran on Saturday. Is Monmouth’s 11 in a row the next-longest streak?

If readers are ready for trivia (or to do the research I ran out of time for this week): Which team that lost last season has the longest current winning streak, besides Monmouth? Which team that won early in the year is on or nearing a double-digit losing streak?

Give us your feedback by following directions below.

Mark my words (or eat ’em) 
Here’s what I think about Week 5:

-> I’m not ready to say No. 4 Hardin-Simmons is finished without quarterback Jordan Neal. Their 14-0 win over Mississippi College might have knocked them down a few rungs in the poll if it hadn’t been played in hurricane remnants, including 40 mph winds. Given those two hurdles, it probably makes the Cowboys’ win more impressive. If the weather is clear, we know they’ll have to put up more than 14 points to stay with Howard Payne this week.

-> Unless they’re really impressive against Mount Union, I can’t see Capital staying in the top 25. The teams the Crusaders have beaten are winless, and if they lose badly to the Purple Raiders, that won’t tell us much either. Which would mean top 25 voters would really only have the Otterbein game to judge by. If the Crusaders are semi-competitive Saturday, I’m not sure it would mean they weren’t one of the nation’s 25 best teams though.

-> I lost a little respect for Hobart this week. After touting a defense that had not allowed a point all season, they gave up 48 to RPI, 34 in regulation. The Statesmen did manage a triple-overtime win, but I wonder what kind of questions it raised in voters’ minds. Certainly, if WPI is not really going to be a surprise factor, the Union-Hobart game will be one to anticipate.

My 26-35 teams in the poll are, in no particular order: North Central, Trinity (Conn.), Hampden-Sydney, Monmouth, Capital (all in the group last week), plus Johns Hopkins, McDaniel, Ferrum, Thiel, Carthage, Wooster, Wabash, UW-Stout, Bethel and St. Olaf. Okay, that’s a little bit past 35, but I like to watch as many teams as I think may at some point deserve voting consideration. I’m not sure yet what I think about the IIAC, which is starting to be par for the course like it is in the WIAC and MAC. I’m not sure how I’d feel about ranking Hobart after last week, and I don’t think much has changed with Alma losing to Division II Tiffin.

Last weekend’s most eye-opening results included Rockford 82, Principia 12 and St. Olaf 71, Macalester 10, for their sheer numbers, not because the wins were particularly impressive. Same with Wabash’s 50-2 win … you just don’t see that safety-only score often.

Amused and impressed are two different things, and Ferrum impressed in a 34-13 win at Shenandoah, the 2004 USAC champ. UW-River Falls must have figured something out after a tight game with PLU last year, because it was 45-14 this time around. Augustana beat UW-Platteville by the same score in a contest that’s usually close. Perhaps that tells us a little about Platteville this year, or that Augustana bounced back from a season-opening loss to Central (it was similar to a Week 2 win at Catholic where the score was 49-7 when the second string came in). Or maybe the Central-Augustana-Platteville comparison means the IIAC’s strength is back after a down year. It was also surprising to see John Carroll get up off the mat so heartily, beating Marietta 48-17. Same with St. Norbert, which bounced back from its loss to Monmouth by beating Knox 48-14, and Willamette, which got its first win by a 52-20 score against Menlo.

But perhaps, aside from Ferrum, last week’s most surprising result was La Verne’s 38-14 win over Puget Sound. Granted, the Loggers were on a long road trip, but not many SCIAC teams had shown life against NWC opponents in recent seasons, and Puget Sound appeared to be on the rise.

For thoughts on this coming Saturday from other D3football.com staff members, keep an eye on our blog, the Daily Dose, and a post called ‘Looking Ahead to Saturday’s games.’

Feedback
Readers have always been a big part of Around the Nation, and this year we’ve added another way for you to talk back. We’ve always listened to what you had to say — good, bad or indifferent — with our feedback form or in your e-mails to keith@d3football.com. For a second time, since the first board was accidentally deleted,we’ve added a thread on the new Post Patterns board to discuss issues raised in Around the Nation.

Attention SIDs
As always, Around the Nation requests media guides and any other aids in helping us cover your school or conference this season. We are also interested in seeing game tapes from schools we aren’t able to see in person this season.