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| Jack Holleran would be familiar to Team of the Week fans but his Hobart team hasn't been talked about much. Photo for Hobart by K. Colton, SportsPics.net |
By Keith McMillan
D3sports.com
We've got a lot to get to this week, so I thought I'd start us off quickly, briefing you on six teams with a shot at the playoffs who are currently flying under the radar.
1. Hobart leads off our list of playoff possibles that no one is talking about. Winners of five straight since a 35-14 loss to Franklin and Marshall, the 5-0, 6-1 Statesmen are off this week before a Liberty League showdown Nov. 6 with 4-0, 4-2 Union.
Hobart has made its way by being efficient. The Statesmen are among the nation’s leaders in turnover margin (plus-11) and pass efficiency defense, while quarterback Shawn Mizro has completed 57 percent of his passes and has tossed just four interceptions. Hobart has also gone for it 26 times on fourth down — that’s nearly four times per game — converting 15 of them.
2. Wesley is flying under the radar because Salisbury and Brockport State have hogged all of the attention in the expanded ACFC. The Wolverines have turned it into a two-way conference race with the Sea Gulls behind the nation’s ninth-ranked rusher, Kevin Nelson (147 yards per game), and a defense that has allowed 10 points or fewer in all but two outings.
The Wolverines go to Salisbury this weekend in what may be the ACFC de facto title game. Each team has already defeated Brockport, Buffalo State and Newport News.
3. Thiel needs a Waynesburg win over Washington and Jefferson on Saturday to possibly force a three-way tie for the PAC title, but a Pool B playoff spot could be possible as well. The Tomcats have won six of seven since a season-opening loss to UW-Platteville, and are unbeaten on the road.
They close with teams who are a combined 2-12, and could be 8-2 hoping for an open playoff spot.
4. Texas Lutheran: After opening with nine-point losses to Trinity (Texas) and Mary Hardin-Baylor, the Bulldogs are in position to affect their own destiny. But they’ll have to do it on the road, as trips to Howard Payne and No. 3 Hardin-Simmons loom.
Quarterback Sean Salinas has helped engineer an offense scoring nearly 38 points and gaining 450 yards per game.
The Bulldogs have also played one of the nation’s most exciting games to date, a 64-62 four-overtime win against Louisiana College.
5. Lake Forest: The 7-1 Foresters could force a three-way tie in the MWC with a Nov. 6 win at St. Norbert. They went to DePere with one loss into 2002, and stole the conference playoff berth. They’re in position to do the same this year.
Sophomore quarterback Mathew Mahaney has a go-to receiver in Nick Hildreth and five teammates who’ve hauled in double-digit receptions.
With a winning season already clinched, the Foresters are two wins from really making this a season to remember.
6. Alfred: At 3-1, 6-1, the Saxons are the surprise team in the Empire 8 automatic bid hunt. Could it be because they haven’t played Ithaca or St. John Fisher yet? Or is Alfred a legitimate challenger?
The Saxons have a defense ranked in the nation’s top 20 in points allowed and also rates third in pass efficiency defense. In addition, special teams are a strength. Punt returner Jake Sprague and kick returner Chris Sargent are rated among the nation’s 30 best in yards per return, while only seven kickers have hit more field goals than Chris Reynolds. Their loss is to Springfield.
Here are six more that probably won't make the playoffs, but deserve a little shine:
1. Whitworth: The Pirates live dangerously by outscoring opponents, but it’s worked against everyone but No. 2 Linfield. That game, a 48-37 loss, wasn’t much different than Whitworth’s 52-49, 31-28 or 41-35 victories. The Pirates could be in line for a Pool B playoff bid, but their high-scoring, close-game style could backfire against Lewis and Clark, Willamette or Pacific Lutheran, the three opponents left on the schedule.
2. Washington and Lee: Frank Miriello’s Generals are the ODAC’s model of consistency, going 5-5 from 1999-2002 before dropping to 3-7 last season. W&L hasn’t won more than five games since 1985, despite winning exactly five games 11 times in that span.
The Generals are most of the way there this season, standing at 4-3 with three to play. They’d been a thorn in rival Bridgewater’s side for years, though it was ODAC rival Hampden-Sydney that needed a final-drive interception to preserve a 31-28 win Oct. 16.
Even with a loss on Saturday, wins over Emory and Henry and Greensboro could seal a winning season.
4. Ohio Northern: If you can’t beat ’em, get one of their alumni to coach you. We kid, but Mount Union grad Dean Paul’s move to Ada from Thomas More has helped the Polar Bears immediately become competitive again. ONU won four straight and led Mount Union 27-20 in the second half before the Purple Raiders closed with three touchdowns.
With Baldwin-Wallace and Capital ahead in line in the OAC, don’t expect a playoff bid. But we might be seeing the groundwork laid for a team that could routinely challenge for a postseason spot.
3. Puget Sound: The Loggers started 3-0 before running into an unforgiving stretch against Willamette, Pacific Lutheran, Whitworth and Linfield, teams that are a combined 21-4.
Still, their three victories are two more than the program won from 2001-03, and with Colorado College and Lewis and Clark (just three wins between them) to finish the season, a .500 record is a possibility.
5 and 6. DePauw and Rhodes: Trinity still owns the SCAC, and the Tigers and Lynx have been the second-tier of the conference upper echelon for some time. Still, each is 3-1, 5-2 and probably wishing it could relive its close finishes.
The touchdown Trinity scored to beat DePauw by one with 10 seconds left has been well-documented by now, while Rhodes is also a couple of plays from being unbeaten. Comebacks against DePauw and Washington U. each fell a touchdown short.
Unless the Lynx win at Trinity on Saturday, San Antonio’s Tigers will keep their 12-year stranglehold on the SCAC going. But if anyone’s going to end their run someday, DePauw and Rhodes are among the best bets.
Rivalry watch
Muhlenberg-Moravian is looking like the early favorite for most meaningful rivalry game in 2004, though DePauw-Wabash, Cortland State-Ithaca and St. Thomas-St. John's should each match winning teams.
The Mules and Greyhounds are a combined 13-1, and both teams could be playoff-bound or on the Pool C bubble when the Lehigh Valley rivals meet in a non-conference clash Nov. 13.
The Tigers and Little Giants are a combined 10-4 to date, while the Cortaca Jug foes are 9-5 and the Tommies and Johnnies are 11-3.
Undefeated watch
Last week there were 16 unbeatens, including Mt. St. Joseph, who we neglected to acknowledge.
We are down to 13 this week, as Baldwin-Wallace, Mary Hardin-Baylor and Springfield each picked up its first loss (becoming prime Pool C candidates in the process).
Amherst, Concordia-Moorhead, Delaware Valley, Hardin-Simmons, Linfield, Moravian, Mount Union, Salisbury, Trinity (Conn.), Washington and Jefferson, Wheaton and Wooster join the HCAC’s Lions in the still undefeated group.
Rowan and Alma have still not lost to a Division III opponent.
Winless watch
Our unlucky 17 is now an unlucky 14, as Gettysburg, Plymouth State and Sul Ross State each got off the schneid Saturday, the latter two breaking long losing streaks.
The Panthers beat Husson 33-21, leading coach Paul Castonia to say his program got an 800-pound gorilla off its back.
The Lobos’ 28-21 win on McMurry’s homecoming day threw a losing streak, and the forfeits that may or may not have gone with it, out the window.
The remaining winless are Benedictine, Bethany, Catholic, Concordia (Ill.), Defiance, Framingham State, Guilford, Heidelberg, Hiram, Juniata, Knox, Manchester, Muskingum and Oberlin.
At least one team will drop from this group on Saturday, when Heidelberg visits Muskingum. Three more will get a W on Nov. 6, when Concordia travels to Benedictine, Defiance goes to Manchester and Catholic heads south to play Guilford. Oberlin will go to Hiram on Nov. 13, as both teams might be looking to head into the offseason on a high note.
Fumbles
A few of you noticed slip-ups last week. I did leave Mount St. Joseph off the list of undefeated teams, and you’ll note I did not repeat that mistake this week. Thanks for pointing it out.
Trinity (Texas) was lumped in with the unbeaten even after losing to Azusa Pacific on Oct. 16. Uh, I meant Trinity (Conn.). Yeah, that’s the ticket.
We’ll get everything corrected for our stretch run.
Five games to watch
> No. 1 Mount Union at No. 15 Baldwin-Wallace: The last OAC team to beat Mount Union (in 1994) gets the last real shot to knock the Purple Raiders off before the playoffs. The Yellow Jackets are clinging to slim playoff hopes after losing to Capital, and would certainly like to play their best game now.
> UW-Stevens Point at No. 13 UW-Whitewater: They’re all big games for the Pointers, who rarely get a week without a ranked opponent. Whitewater is among three WIAC teams with a 3-1 conference record, so perhaps the Pointers can help sort out the championship chase.
> Wesley at No. 17 Salisbury: The Sea Gulls can virtually seal a playoff bid with a win, while the Wolverines need a win to get into the playoff picture. In their fifth and final ACFC game, the Wolverines could win the conference title, while Salisbury would still have to close the season with a Regents Cup win over Frostburg State to avoid having to share the title.
> Albion at Hope: The Britons are one loss behind Hope and Alma in the MIAA race with road trips to both in the next two weeks. Albion, coming off three blowout wins, can make itself a factor or watch the Scots and Flying Dutchmen duke it out.
> Wartburg at Central: Perhaps we’d expect more to be on the line when these proud programs meet, but this game isn’t meaningless. Three teams are one loss behind of Buena Vista in the race for the IIAC’s automatic bid, including the Knights and Dutch.
Also keep an eye on: Ohio Northern at No. 5 Capital, Waynesburg at No. 9 Washington & Jefferson, Rhodes at No. 10 Trinity (Texas), No. 14 Rowan at Brockport State, No. 20 Springfield at Ithaca, No. 21 Augustana at Elmhurst, No. 22 McDaniel at Franklin & Marshall, Washington & Lee at No. 23 Bridgewater (Va.), Dickinson at No. 24 Hampden-Sydney, Anderson at Hanover
Who are those guys?
Our weekly look at teams playing non-Division III competition turns up three NAIA opponents.
Simpson travels to Central Methodist of the NAIA’s Heart of America conference, while Thiel plays first-year program Ohio Dominican and Newport News (which, granted, isn’t Division III either, but we track them as if they were) takes on Southern Virginia.
Eye-opener of the week
No. 1 Mount Union has given up 54 points this season, and it isn't the nation's No. 1 scoring defense. The 7.7 points per game allowed rank fourth in the country.
Curry and Trinity (Conn.) have been stingy with the points as well, but the nation’s hottest defense hails from Maryland.
McDaniel posted its third shutout this week, and has surrendered just 10 points in the past four games. They are giving up less than a touchdown per outing, having allowed just 39 points all season.
Since none of their final three opponents averages more than 24 points a game, the 5-1 Green Terror could very well close the season not having allowed more than the 18 points Christopher Newport scored on them in Week 2.
Centennial Conference foe Muhlenberg is the stingiest with the yardage, allowing just 156 per game.
Road trips of the week
It’s a relatively do-able week across the nation. Even our trusty travelers from Colorado College are at home against Puget Sound. Menlo travels to Linfield to play a team that will soon become a conference foe.
The trips that stand out this week aren’t outrageous, but Rochester at Coast Guard (6 hours, 380 miles), Sewanee at Millsaps (6½ hours, 410 miles) and Rhodes at Trinity (11½ hours, 730 miles) make for long conference road trips.
Bethany at Chicago is a non-conference game, and an eight-hour, 470-mile trek across Indiana and Ohio from the West Virginia panhandle.
Poll beef of the week
I might as well make this a weekly department, as I seem to raise a question about one poll or another each week. I know polls are an inexact science and breed disagreement. Some weeks I’m not even happy with my own Top 25 as I submit my ballot for the D3football.com poll.
The AFCA seems to be ranking teams solely off of records. For example, I have no problem with undefeated Salisbury being ranked. I myself vote for the Sea Gulls each week in our poll. But I’m not sure what — schedule included — makes them, at No. 6 in the AFCA poll, so much better than No. 25 Mount St. Joseph and unranked Moravian.
Eight weeks of feedback
Though our call-and-response used to be a weekly feature, I’ve sat on most of your e-mails all year, even if I’ve responded to the author. Well, now it’s sharing time. Here are the most interesting things you, the people, have had to say so far this season, some in response to questions we asked along the way. Your answers don’t necessarily reflect our views, by the way:
> We asked if people still felt connected to their alma mater even after being out of school for a while:
“Keith,
I have been out of college for quite some time (32 years) and my love for D3 has not been diminished in the least. I will say as a member of the Class of ’72 at Mount Union, that might distort the passion a little. I was the equipment manager for the team when coach Larry [Kehres] was the starting QB. Oh how old does that feel?
I followed MUC when I lived in Ohio but I moved to Minnesota in 1997. Since that time I have also become involved with new friends at of all places ... St. John’s University.
I began attending their games in 1999 and have logged quite a few miles to Collegeville and other locations in the MIAC region. I of course always show up in Purple trim and stir up a lot of folks. They think I am a scout. I told them I lost my job after last year.
I have made a nice circle of friends at their games and they have welcomed me so sincerely I cannot describe how important this relationship has become. They invite me to their favorite watering hole after games and to picnics at their homes in the off season. They were able to quote line and verse about Mount Union and their players as well as I could. Talk about passion! This was even after some pretty one-sided losses in Alliance over the years.
I attended six of St. John’s games last year including the national championship game in Salem. I think you will know which side I was with. My passion, however, is contagious and I invited the VP of Sales and our Marketing Director of a company I represent located in Liberty, N.C., to the game in Salem. They unknowingly became part of history I would like to forget.
I also attended the Gagliardi Award banquet in Minneapolis out of respect for my St. John’s friends and the outstanding accomplishments of Blake Elliott. I thought he would never graduate! I had a chance to talk with Blake and we shared some funny stories about my attendance at their games (the scout thing). I also asked John Gagliardi and Blake to sign my copy of The Perfect Season.
My point is I love D3 football because of the “pure” nature of the game. Certainly it does not hurt to be associated with two of the finest programs in the country but I still feel my overall love of the game drives me to keep track of scores and teams all over the country. Thanks for that opportunity on D3football.com.
If I am on a business trip in a town of a program I am familiar with, I will try and pay a visit to their stadium to get a feel of what their program is all about. A little nuts maybe but ... guilty. Passion!
Thanks again for the platform to respond and I hope you haven't fallen asleep by now.”
— Jay Cutler, Chanhassen, Minn.
“Keith,
Great question! I would have to say that I feel more connected to my school as time goes on. I feel this way for many reasons: The coaching staff that I played for at Lycoming is still intact today as it was back in the ’80s (same head and assistant coaches). I know that this is a fairly unusual situation (it being 20-plus years), but nonetheless it helps to know the staff! Having D3football.com to rely on for all Division III football news (including Lycoming) definitely helps with staying connected to the sport and the school Being able to listen to Lycoming games over the Internet (put in place just this year) helps since I can still listen to the game without having to attend it in person. Thanks for providing a great site for me to get my D-III fix every week (at least in season). :-)”
— Mark Finkelstein (class of '85)
“I think whether or not alumni follow their school has a lot to do with the success of the program. No one wants to follow losing programs. Also, programs with a lot of tradition, prestige and history are more often followed by alumni. That tradition allows for some pride in their program whether they’re losing or not.”
— An FDU-Florham fan
“I graduated from Widener in 1988. I was a manager for the team and helped with videotaping. After graduating, I continued to assist with the video until Coach (Bill) Manlove left and went to DVC in 1992 where I joined him and where I still do the video to this day. Because DVC and Widener are conference rivals, my association with Division III football gets stronger every year.”
— Tom Hoffman
> We had also asked about players who have a chance at walking on in Division I-A or playing Division III:
“I am sending feedback on if a player wants to try D1 instead of playing D3. I am in that situation right now. I was being recruited by a few D3 schools such as Louisiana College, Rhodes, and Millsaps.
Instead of playing at one of these schools, I walked on at LSU and I start in the spring.
There are different reasons why I did and why some other people might as well. First, hard work pays off. If someone works hard enough, they can play even at a D1 school. There are countless number of walk-ons at D1 schools that are now special teams standouts. And they were told that D1 was out of the question and now they are playing in front of 50,000-plus people.
Another reason is maybe the size of the schools. Some guys just won’t enjoy going to a school that has the same amount or less amount of people as their high school and is located in the middle of nowhere. Especially people from big cities and big schools.
But, vice-versa, some people don't fit in at big schools and D3 is the way to go for them. And one of the major reasons that I chose to go D1 and many people do is for financial reasons. Many and most D3 schools are small, private schools. With no scholarships available and the tuition of a private school relatively high, many players simply could not deal with the financial burden. I have a friend who I played with in high school currently playing for a school in the SCAC and he is paying close to $12,000 a semester just to play football.
— Michael, New Orleans, La.
Here are some others that came after various Around the Nations were published:
“I have been reading your articles for some time and enjoy almost all of them ... please keep it up. I don’t agree with any coach allowing his team to roll up a score in the 70s. I really have to think about that mentality. There are many options to consider to keep the score from that point. Rubbing the losing team’s nose in that serves no purpose, no one learns from a game like that. I used to listen to a coach worried about power points, etc. That is a bunch of crap. In my opinion, shame on any coach who pursues any team to embarrass them like that. Thanks for the opportunity for the feedback.
— Bill Miller
“Hello Mr. McMillan,
This is Chasen Eddow, No. 21 in the Whittier picture. I would just like to say I’m glad you're talking about the lesser known Division III schools. Yes, Cal Lutheran did put 70 on us and ran up the score, but they hear about it this year. Thanks for your time, you’re doing a great job.
— Chasen Eddow
“As a Cal Lutheran grad, I’m sick to death of the weak SCIAC. When the league’s powerhouse, &Redlands, gives up more than 50 points in a game, that speaks volumes for how bad things are. Frankly, things are never going to get better in a conference dominated politically by academic elitists like Caltech and Pomona-Pitzer who think athletics should be further de-emphasized. Ah, for the good old days when Cal Lutheran was an NAIA powerhouse.”
— Gerry Price, Cal Lutheran ’68
> This one is tongue-in-cheek, in reference to a remark I made about wearing gloves:
“I read your article on Johns Hopkins. Nice job. Jim Margraff is a class guy. Have known him for years.
It is too bad that James has gone soft and allows his receivers to wear gloves.
I guess the 21st century football hurts more than the old ones.
I guess the QBs today just throw the ball too hard for the darling receivers.
It is just another sign that this country is going to pot.
Sad.”
— Anonymous
> Then there's the feedback we get randomly promoting or appreciating certain teams or players:
Keith,
I’m not an alum (I am in Ohio), just a D-III fan and I too, was noticing Otterbein’s playing tough against good teams and just falling short. The numbers are up and I think in the coming years they will win some of those games. The new stadium will help recruiting too.”
— Joe Wray
“I was reading your article and just wanted to give some insight to a little school with a big football program, My son is a sophomore at Wesley and since we have been involved in D-III football, I'm amazed at the talent that Wesley is able to find and the teams they continue to put on the field. This school has only 1,400 students and they not only compete against school with 8,000 to 10,000 students, but they win. I think these type of programs exceed there potential and are worth mention ... Just my thoughts.”
— Ed Miller
“Not too many people have [any] idea what the Apprentice School Builders are in Newport News, Virginia. I think that the idea of working on aircraft carriers and playing in the ACFC Conference is a really big load. We work from 7 in the morning to 3:30 p.m. and go to practice from 4 to 6:30 p.m., not including schoolwork, so really you’re not getting to bed some nights until 10 or 11. I really do think that this is a really good story. I'm currently a senior at the Apprentice School and also play football for the team for four years. I'm currently playing free safety. Thanks and I hope that someone has a good idea what is going on.”
— Ronald Johnson
“Keith,
You said in your column that you want to talk about programs that are not necessarily playoff contenders but play for the love of the game. How about looking at the NESCAC? I think a lot of the world misses out on the type of competition and respect that goes on in that league. Trinity has quite the classy program and they play hard week in and week out only for the NESCAC Championship … something to think about.
I guess I do not know anything specific about any individual program, but I think it is respectable that Bowdoin will play an entire season only for the satisfaction of beating Bates or Colby.”
— Daniel Genck
“Keith,
I told you Salisbury would beat Brockport. Salisbury is for real! Thanks.”
— John Ricketts
“Barefoot kicker at Mount Ida College! That’s nuts.”
— No name
“Don’t forget about the Hobart Statesmen.”
— Evan Hoffman
“Keith,
I have written you in the past about certain players I have seen play in the MAC. I have seen all of Albright’s games this year, and this kid Port is the best QB I have seen in 10 years that I have been going to games. This team is going to be hard to beat. Their defense is starting to catch up with the offense. They can score from anywhere on the field in a hurry. They have so many weapons it’s scary.”
— unsigned (but a frequent e-mailer)
“[Linfield’s] Brandon Hazenberg is someone who you need to keep an eye on ... he is a junior wide receiver/cornerback/punt returner and could be three-way first-team all-conference if he keeps it up.
Whitworth is a team to keep an eye on for next year ... this year they are young but tough ... How about UPS? They are 0-2 in the NWC [at the time] but have lost by two and in OT to the Lutes. All we need is two more programs so we can become an AQ conference. You can’t tell me that our top two teams aren’t in the top 32 in the nation in any given year.
What is the deal with Mount Union? Why are they so good? Keep up the great work at D3football.com.”
— Andy Jamison
“Keith,
FYI - In addition to the Moravian Greyhounds ’93 NCAA playoff appearance, they also made it to the quarterfinals in ’88. This was Scot Dapp’s second season at the helm. They lost to Ferrum 49-28. Chris Warren, the NFL All-pro running back was playing for Ferrum at the time.”
— Kurt Poling
> And of course, we love feedback like this:
“You are guys are doing an amazing job with the site! Thanks for the hard work!”
— Erik Langanke, Ithaca’95
“You just do wonderful work. So many people enjoy reading your articles and timely updates. Thanks for your efforts.”
— Jack Grech, Wooster fan
> I say, let’s get some answers to William’s questions below:
“Hello,
I’m a fan of D3football and I read your Around the Nation column every week. I wanted to ask you if we can get a poll going of which D3 teams have the best looking jerseys or which D3 teams have the best team Web site.
Just a request. Ultimately it's your column so it’s up to you. I suggested this because in this weeks column you mentioned you wanted to try to get some of the lesser known D3 schools out there and this might be a way to do that.”
— William Ellis
> I’ll close with two of the most interesting pieces I’ve received:
“Keith,
Great job you and your guys do for the d3 site! I am on this site about three times a week. I am a grad/former player at Baldwin-Wallace. I graduated two years after John Snell. He has done a terrific job there, especially since he had to fill some pretty big shoes. It was time for a coaching change and B-W did it well.
On the other hand, my father is a Juniata graduate. He was on the undefeated teams of the late 50s. He played guard and linebacker and tells great stories of scrimmaging against Penn State. He and his old roommate, who also happens to live here in NYC, are frustrated by the program and the lack of commitment by the administration.
What is your take of that situation at Juniata? It is heartbreaking for my father and his friend to see such a program go backward, but all programs have their ups and downs. I guess they see the problem as being the current administration seemingly not committed to a good football program. Is this the problem you hear through the grapevine? Any insight would be great.
Incidentally, three years ago my father and I decided to become season ticket holders of Army Football. Going up to West Point for a game is second to none. But the job Bobby Ross is doing with that program is amazing! Thanks for your time,
— Brian Hogan
“Keith,
Just a quick note to say “thanks” for your hard work and putting an excellent piece of material together So Don’t Be Surprised. I’m a 1981 graduate of VMI and, quite honestly, love the purity of Div. III athletics. I hope that I live long enough to see the true student-athletes get the accolades they deserve. Your work and that of the other contributors of D3football get my applause and gratitude for a job well done. I have a daughter attending Christopher Newport University who will be playing women’s lacrosse. Ya’ll should consider doing the same for D3lacrosse, if you haven’t thought about it.
I enjoy your site and thank you for your enthusiasm which helps the true football fan feel that football is a game of love, not a game of money.”
— Respectfully,
Bob Morris (from overseas)
Questions & answers
You guys keep’em coming, and I’ll see what I can do to answer your questions.
Q: “Keith, I enjoy your column each week. I have a question on the point system used to determine which team would be automatically in the playoffs. As I understand your article, it seems that it would come down to which team had the most games won by less than three points. That team would fall to class C pool. Help.”
— Alex Erby, Jr.
A: Alex, first, thanks for reading the column.
The way I understand the rule is, to break the tie, the MAC would compare Del Val and Moravian’s results against each opponents starting from the teams just below them. As of today, they’d look at the Aggies’ and Greyhounds’ margin of victory against Albright first, then Wilkes and Widener. The margin of victory tiebreaker has a cap of three points, presumably to discourage running up the score. So a 59-7 win is the same as a 10-7 win. When they get down to King's, Moravian’s 21-18 victory puts them two points ahead of Del Val, which beat the Monarchs 20-19.
Of course, this means little at the moment, as the Aggies close at FDU-Florham, then at home against Wilkes and Widener. The Greyhounds go to Widener, then play Albright and out-of-conference rival (but perhaps playoff-bound) Muhlenberg.
Q: I was just wondering what the chances of Ithaca making the playoffs now is after their two losses?
— Matt, Buffalo
A: To get in, the Bombers have to win the Empire 8 automatic bid. They host Springfield and go to Alfred. A loss in either, and the following week’s Cortaca Jug game will be the highlight of the season, not the NCAA playoffs.
I think the Pool C field will be too strong for a two-loss team to get in. I see as many as 13 leagues whose one-loss runners-up could have a good case for a bid.
Q: Despite two losses by a total of three points to nationally ranked Concordia-Moorhead and UW-Eau Claire, does defending national champion Saint John’s University (Minn.) still have a decent shot at making the NCAA Division III playoff field if it can win its remaining three games?
— Tom Stock
A: Honestly, Tom, probably not. The competition for the three playoff spots that go to runners-up in AQ leagues is such that the records of the teams that make it will be nearly impeccable.
This season, we could see a 10-0 MAC team in Pool C, and several 9-1s are likely. That would mean that St. John’s, even with two close losses to highly ranked opponents, would have to be more worthy than six or seven other playoff candidates, which I don’t see happening. The other thing to look at as far as playing a tough schedule is to look at who the Johnnies have beaten. Under the scenario you propose, the Johnnies would have losses to two tough opponents, but they wouldn’t have wins over anyone with national repute, except maybe St. Thomas. No team has ever gotten a Pool C bid with two Division III losses, let alone two regional losses.
Q: Help me understand. Why does the WIAC get so much respect when their record since playoff expansion is two wins, six losses (.250)?”
— Will, Edina, Minn.
A: Will, that’s actually a great question, because without the luxury of televised games to compare teams, one of the ways we judge the strength of a conference is by the performance if its teams in the playoffs.
While the WIAC doesn’t score well in recent postseasons, its teams routinely defeat top teams from other leagues in out-of-conference games. This season alone, WIAC teams have defeated St. John’s, St. Norbert, Augustana, DePauw, Albion, Concordia (Wis.), Thiel and Lakeland, all teams in the top two or three in their Division III conferences.
WIAC teams are 11-2 in non-conference games within the division, with the losses coming to Linfield and Pacific Lutheran, and 16-6 out-of-conference overall.
Q: Hey Keith,
Is there any chance, if both the Greyhounds of Moravian and the Aggies go undefeated, that they would both make the playoffs? And if so is there any chance they will meet in the playoffs? I read somewhere a couple of weeks back that they could be placed in the same pool or play each other, and I was wondering if that was correct.
Thank you for your time.
— Mike, Delaware Valley Football Alum
A: Mike, it’s definitely plausible for both to go undefeated and make the playoffs, though they each have some tough games left. If it happens, I would expect one team to be placed in the east bracket and one in the south, perhaps with a first-round matchup against the Centennial champion.
Both teams could end up in the same seven-team bracket, but at worst, a first-round game against each other would be avoided. The committee tends to shy away from matching up conference foes in the playoffs when possible, though this would be a rare case of two teams from the same conference who did not already meet during the regular season.
> Here's a two-for-one:
Q: Hi Keith, I've been reading your columns on D3football.com, but this is the first time I've written. I think I know the answer to the question I'm about to ask, but I'll ask anyway. I figure that since you have the entire nation under watch, and I only keep my eye on Hobart, you'll have a better perspective than I.
Is Hobart College not ranked because our schedule/league is too easy? It really disappoints me every week to see my alma mater chalk up another victory, yet only garner four or five votes for the Top 25. Thanks for your time.
— Matt Smith
Q: Keith, I'm a Hobart grad, and played for the Statesmen for five years, including the bad old days when a W was hard to come by. I also was there when Coach Cragg started, launching the program into its current streak of success. My question is, how do they make the next step? They have consistently gotten votes for your Top 25 rankings, but have been unable to crack the list. Should Hobart abandon the Liberty League in favor of the Empire 8, who tend to show up more frequently on the list, or should they just wait it out and wait for the recognition to come? When I played, there was no doubt that we would play Ithaca, Alfred, and St. John Fisher, but now they are absent from the schedule. Would bringing these teams back on t the schedule increase their chance of being ranked, assuming that they would perform as well against them as we did back in the day? What must they do to get a break, and a ranking on the Top 25? Thanks
— Eric Primrose
A: I wouldn’t say Hobart is unranked because its league is too easy. This season in particular, the Statesmen took an early 35-14 loss to a Franklin & Marshall team that isn’t exactly a powerhouse in its own conference. I think that, plus the fact that there are 230 Division III teams, contribute to Hobart’s not being able to crack the Top 25, despite being 6-1.
With the ratio of unranked to ranked teams, even unbeatens like Moravian, Mount St. Joseph and Trinity (Conn.) have had a hard time cracking our Top 25.
Playing a tougher schedule may help in the eyes of the pollsters, but the goal isn’t really to be ranked, is it? It’s to make the playoffs. In that vein, Hobart is just fine in the eight-team Liberty League. The three teams added from what used to be the Freedom Football Conference have sunk right to the bottom of your league, perhaps diluting the overall strength.
But getting into the playoffs is what counts, and what will eventually lead to respect in the rankings. You don’t have to look farther than RPI, which was ranked earlier this season after last year’s final four run, to get some evidence for that.
Q: Keith,
First of all, thanks so much for the hard work you do for the ODAC and USA South. I loved your article last week about the changing of the guard in Virginia. I dropped a note in the feedback link about this very question, but didn't get a reply. Thought I would send it straight to you. What does Averett have to do to get regional press? I am not saying that they deserve the exposure the CNU, Shenandoah, and Bridgewater get b/c they absolutely DO NOT, but there is something happening there that has to get on the radar sooner or later. I’m just curious as to what you think they have to do to get there. With a big win last week against Ferrum, if they win Saturday at Methodist they are right at the top of the USA South. Just take a look at what they've done, their remaining schedule, and drop me a quick line telling me when you think they become legit. And by the way, I'm not really an Averett fanatic. I played at Bridgewater, graduated from Ferrum and coach in the Danville area. I've recently gotten to know Coach Dunlevy and admire the job he is doing. Thanks for your time.
— Jason Barrow (from Oct. 7)
A: Jason, sorry I didn’t get to your questions sooner, but here we are. Averett, I think, is actually making some noise as the USAC becomes a stronger conference. Outside of winning in the playoffs, however, there really isn’t a quick way for a program to put itself on the Division III map. And you’ve got Shenandoah, Ferrum and Methodist all trying to catch Christopher Newport, which may be both good and lucky enough to make its way into the playoffs yet again.
I guess you’d have to watch Averett patiently, as they’ve gone from five wins in the first three years as a start-up to one win from clinching back-to-back winning seasons. And really, the playoffs are the next step. That’s really how Bridgewater and CNU got the exposure you speak of, though Shenandoah turned heads with an eight-win season last year.
Q: You make a point of stating how could the AFCA list Hampden-Sydney ahead of Bridgewater, yet you completely leave out the fact that Christopher Newport has the same record as Bridgewater and beat them, so shouldn’t they be rated ahead of Bridgewater? They also beat McDaniel who is rated ahead of them as well. They had one bad game and that will cost them a shot at the playoffs. Also I was wondering if you have looked at the USA South’s out of conference record? I believe it’s around a .666 winning percentage this year. A far cry from a few years ago when the teams combined for one win out of the conference.
— Charles Stivason
A: Hello Charles. The H-SC/Bridgewater example was just one scenario of many in polls which fans could disagree with. It stood out to me because of the distance between the two teams (it’s still that way this week, H-SC is No. 16 and the Eagles are 31st) despite a solid if not decisive decision on the field. We addressed the CNU-Bridgewater-Shenandoah triangle a few weeks ago in the Oct. 7 Around the Nation, with McDaniel factored in. In that same column, we wondered how far CNU should stray from Rowan in the poll, due to the Captains 33-32 opening day loss to the Profs.
I understand that even teams who beat another on the field don’t always rise ahead in the polls. UW-Eau Claire, despite winning at St. John’s, didn’t pass the Johnnies until they lost to Concordia-Moorhead.
I’m also not so sure CNU has cost themselves a shot at the playoffs, as you claim. On the heels of a win at Methodist and Shenandoah’s loss to Greensboro, the Captains are very much in the title race.
And we will certainly look into the USAC’s improved performance (I believe they finished 3-20 in 2002) next week. Which leads us to this:
Your questions for next week
As we plan to revise and update our conference rankings from Nov. 7, 2002, we’d like to hear which conferences you think are the strongest, where yours should rank and what criteria you would use to rate the conferences. How much should the bottom teams factor into a conference’s strength? What about performance in about out-of-conference games? Year-to-year consistency?
We also want to know what you think about the benefits of turf, as opposed to grass? I never played on turf myself, and seemed to like grass. But with the advent of new types of turf, and with the costs of maintenance more suited to a Division III budget, is turf better than grass?
