Don't be surprised to see this on both sides of Salem Stadium. Photo by Todd Allred, D3sports.com

By Keith McMillan
D3sports.com

If you follow the national scene at all, Week 7 in Division III was the rough equivalent of getting called into the boss’ office unexpectedly or getting that “we need to talk” setup from your significant other.

It was full of surprises.

Luckily, unless you play for one of Saturday’s stunned losers, the surprises’ impact will only make things better, unlike that closed-door visit with the head honcho. We were just getting used to seeing Moravian with a zero in the loss column and Salisbury in the AFCA Top 10 when wins by Thiel (over Waynesburg), Norwich (over St. John Fisher) and Greensboro (over Shenandoah) cracked their respective championship chases wide open. For us onlookers, all of this unpredictability means more fun down the stretch.

But if you’re the type who would rather not be caught off guard when perusing the scoreboard page on Saturday night, Around the Nation will take care of you. Check out our Playoff FAQ and last week’s ATN column if you need a primer, then allow us to pre-empt the next few jaw-droppers with our Sixteen surprises that shouldn’t surprise you:

1. Don’t be surprised if two top five teams lose again this week.
No. 15 UW-Eau Claire won at No. 3 UW-La Crosse, while No. 20 Concordia-Moorhead took the sheriff’s badge in the MIAC with a last-minute field goal at No. 4 St. John's.

We‘re warning our new Nos. 3 (Mary Hardin-Baylor), 4 (Hardin-Simmons) and 5 (Springfield), don‘t get too comfortable.

Okay, so we‘re patting ourselves on the back already, because one of the top fives has to lose when UMHB and HSU hook up in the American Southwest Conference. But No. 24 St. John Fisher‘s knack for the dramatic might resurface as Springfield brings its high-powered rushing attack to Pittsford, N.Y..

2. Don’t be surprised if the polls confound you.
I’m not sure what’s going on in the AFCA poll when Hampden-Sydney checks in at No. 18 with 256 points, while Bridgewater (Va.), which beat the Tigers 37-28, gets a whopping 35 points under “also receiving votes.”

Not that you couldn’t quibble with our poll, however. In Week 4, teams from the WIAC, OAC and Empire 8 accounted for two-fifths of our top 25. Strong leagues, sure, but how much stronger than the MAC, MIAC and CCIW, which accounted for two of our top 25? 

3. Don’t be surprised if the Pool B playoff field underwhelms you again.
At the moment, there appear to be three strong contenders for the four Pool B spots, in Linfield, Washington and Jefferson and Salisbury. For the fourth spot, Whitworth, Willamette, Pacific Lutheran, Carnegie Mellon, Wesley and Brockport State are all still in the running, as far as we’re concerned.

The Sea Gulls and Presidents, 2002 playoff participants, were both unbeaten at this point last year too, and finished the season poorly. W&J lost two of its final four regular-season games, while Salisbury dropped its last two. Linfield finishes with rival Willamette, who could be on the Pool B bubble with wins over PLU and Whitworth.

Teams with one or two losses might fill multiple Pool B spots, although last year those teams represented well in the playoffs.

4. Don’t be surprised if two rarely talked-about teams challenge for Pool C bids.
Runners-up in the MAC, ASC, OAC, WIAC, ODAC, NCAC, Empire 8 and Centennial could make for a long line at a Pool C door that can only let three teams pass through. Quietly lurking are the NJAC’s New Jersey which could finish 8-1 with only a loss to Rowan, and the MIAC’s St. Thomas, which could need to win its rivalry game with St. John’s to plead a similar case: 8-1 with a loss only to Concordia-Moorhead.

If the Tommies finish that way and are left in the cold, they might only have their schedule-maker to blame. St. Thomas has just nine games on the schedule this year and could have benefited by scheduling a 10th, especially with two WIAC schools just over the state line looking for games on one of its open dates.

5. Don’t be surprised if playoff games take place in North Dakota, home of exactly zero Division III teams.
While we’re talking about the Cobbers, let us remind you what northern Minnesota weather is like in November. Even the coach who always thinks “it’s a great day for football” won’t want to play there then.

There is precedent for playing Division III games in the Fargodome, which is a stone’s throw across the Red River (no, not that Red River, Texas folks) from Concordia-Moorhead.

6. Don’t be surprised by Brockport State’s role as playoff ticket-stamper and dream stomper.
The 46-21 win over the Golden Eagles gave Salisbury national credibility and a signature victory. St. John Fisher bolstered its national ranking with a tight win against Brockport as well. The Eagles’ win over Ithaca puts the Bombers in win-the-Empire-8-or-no-playoffs mode, and Brockport can ruin Wesley’s Pool B hopes, TCNJ’s Pool C hopes and Rowan’s chances of hosting a playoff game.

7. Don’t be surprised if there’s a playoff game in Southern California.
It’s far from definite, but it could happen. Since the West Region is sort of in a down year, we could see playoff matchups like St. Norbert at UW-Eau Claire or UW-La Crosse at Concordia-Moorhead, with Linfield earning the bye. That could give a potential 9-1 Occidental team an advantage over an IIAC champ or an NWC runner-up with two losses.

8. Don’t be surprised if LaGrange is the next Division III school to add football (after Becker, of course).
The Georgia-based Panthers are members of the Great South Athletic Conference in other sports, where Maryville (Tenn.) is a rival. 

Pacific and Rochester Tech, which dropped football decades ago, are also considering bringing the sport back.

9. Don’t be surprised if the weekend of Nov. 13 messes up what you thought you knew.
The final week of the Division III regular season will be filled with rivalry games and games that decide conference championships, and in some case games which are both, like when Wheaton and Augustana meet in the CCIW.

While we don’t expect the USAC, MAC, WIAC or IIAC to nail down a champion until the final Saturday, and the NEFC will hold a title game that day, keep an eye open for upsets too.

Last season‘s final Saturday was marked by stunners, the most shocking perhaps Buffalo State getting its second win by handing Washington & Jefferson its second loss, on the Presidents‘ home field.

10. Don’t be surprised if if there's only one OAC team in the playoffs.
While Baldwin-Wallace hasn’t been beaten yet, it hasn’t always put away teams it should beat handily. We could see Capital winning Saturday, then losing to Ohio Northern. We could also see Baldwin-Wallace going 9-1 and getting left out of the playoffs. We tend to assume that nine wins and a loss to Mount Union is a ticket to the playoffs, but lackluster home wins against Muskingum and Otterbein might not hold up under the scrutiny that the powerful Pool C field is sure to be under this year.

11. Don’t be surprised if the HCAC wins a playoff game.
With Mt. St. Joseph actually playing a little defense, a Heartland team could survive the first round for the first time since 2000. We don’t think they would draw the IBFC or fare well if they were kept in Ohio to face an OAC team, but with the right matchup — against the MIAA champ or a possible NCAC runner-up — the Lions could advance.

12. Don’t be surprised if the WIAC wins two first-round games.
Wisconsin’s finest often seem to beat up on each other and disappoint in the postseason. This year, UW-Whitewater is in the driver’s seat after beating UW-Eau Claire, which beat UW-La Crosse. The La Crosse-Whitewater game Nov. 13 could even things up, or it could give the Warhawks the AQ. Eau Claire, if it closes the season 9-1, will have won four in a row on the road and six away from home overall including the game moved to St. John’s, where the Blugolds won.

13. Don’t be surprised if the Alfred/St. John Fisher game has playoff implications.
Talk about the Empire 8 this season starts with Springfield and Ithaca and has expanded to include the Cardinals. But Alfred is 5-1, 3-1 in the conference and will help decide the Empire 8 champion. With back-to-back November home games against Ithaca and St. John Fisher, the Saxons are right in the thick of things if Springfield loses either of its next two. The Pride, 2-0 in E8 games, have one fewer conference loss than the Bombers, Cardinals and Saxons, but go to St. John Fisher and Ithaca in the next two weeks.

Believe it or not, if Springfield loses both, the Saxons and Cardinals could meet with first place on the line.

14. Don’t be surprised if Hampden-Sydney still runs the table without quarterback J.D. Ricca.
Sophomore Brett Delk will step in for the all-American who will miss the rest of the year with a thumb injury. The Tigers can rely on all-time leading scorer CW Clemmons, a 230-pound bruising runner, and a short passing game while easing Delk into his role Saturday at home against winless Catholic.

H-SC’s biggest test will come Nov. 6 at Johns Hopkins, though they also play home games against 3-3 Dickinson, which beat the Blue Jays, and rival Randolph-Macon.

Running the table won’t guarantee the Tigers a Pool C spot, given the strength of competition for the three spots available to conference runners-up. In 2005, as many as seven spots will be open for such squads in a 32-team field.

15. Don’t be surprised if there’s a 10-0 team in Pool C, and another unbeaten that misses the playoffs entirely.
Every week is a test in the MAC, and neither Moravian nor Delaware Valley has an easy road to the playoffs. But the teams, currently 6-0, don’t meet each other, which leaves the door open for two unbeatens at the top of the MAC. The tie would be broken by margin of victory against each opponent, starting from the top of the standings to the bottom, with a maximum of three points per game. That means a 28-7 victory counts the same as a 10-7 win, but at the moment, the Greyhounds hold the edge by beating 2-5 King’s 21-18 to the Aggies’ 20-19.

At 10-0 in this scenario, Delaware Valley would be as much of a Pool C lock as a 9-1 OAC runner-up.

Third-place Albright (5-1) gets a crack at both the Aggies and Moravian, however. 

Out of the NESCAC, (we know, that was a cheap trick) Trinity (Conn.) could run its unbeaten streak to 22 games and not join the 28-team field. As you know by now if you’ve been paying attention, NESCAC teams do not participate in the postseason or play out-of-conference games, though don't be surprised if the latter changes.

16. Don’t be surprised if everyone in Salem is wearing purple.
Sure, it’s early to be making Stagg Bowl predictions, but given the travails of everyone ranked third and beyond, we’ve got a top two we feel comfortable standing behind.

Purple-clad Linfield might not get a crack at the Purple Raiders in Salem, but we’re just telling you what not to be surprised by, right?

Undefeated watch
The ranks of the unbeaten have thinned considerably since we checked in two weeks ago. 

There remain 15 teams without a loss, down from 27, no small feat among 230 overall outfits. 

Amherst, Baldwin-Wallace, Concordia-Moorhead, Delaware Valley, Hardin-Simmons, Linfield, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Moravian, Mount Union, Salisbury, Springfield, Trinity (Conn.), Washington & Jefferson, Wheaton and Wooster are still undefeated.

Albright, Averett, Carthage, St. John Fisher, Trinity (Texas), UW-Platteville, UW-Stout and Wabash are among the 12 who suffered their first losses in the past two weeks.

Rowan is 4-2, but don’t be misguided by a pair of road losses to Division II teams. The Profs are unbeaten against Division III competition, as is Alma (5-1 with an out-of-division loss to Tiffin). UW-La Crosse, an early 45-44 loser to Division II South Dakota, held the same distinction until a loss this week to WIAC rival UW-Eau Claire.

At least two will be dropped from the group by the end of the month. UMHB and HSU meet Saturday, while B-W faces MUC Oct. 30.

Winless watch
Almost an identical number of teams still have not tasted victory in 2004, and will get three to five more cracks at a win.

Benedictine, Bethany, Catholic, Concordia (Ill.), Defiance, Framingham State, Gettysburg, Guilford, Heidelberg, Hiram, Juniata, Knox, Manchester, Muskingum, Oberlin, Plymouth State and Sul Ross State are the unlucky 17.

The biggest surprises in the group are Defiance, a 2001 playoff team, and Oberlin, which had appeared to right the ship with a 5-5 2003 after winning five games in the previous five seasons. The Yeomen had a famous 44-game losing streak from 1997-2001, but one .500 year apparently isn’t enough to cure the culture of losing.

Misery really does love company, as five conferences (The IBFC, HCAC, NCAC, OAC and ODAC) each have a pair of winless teams in their cellars.

From the ‘not our best idea’ department
A lot of what we write about is playoff-focused, but we’re always looking for ways acknowledge all of our Division III brethren. A trip to Salem may be out of the question, but struggling teams need something to look forward to. Their effort is just as valuable as the winning teams’ is, even if their execution isn’t.

That’s why we propose a Toilet Bowl tournament, where Division III’s bottom 16 teams are given the gift of extra games against evenly matched competition as playoff teams are. Winners of the eight first-round matchups turn in their equipment with a sense of accomplishment, while the losers keep playing until there’s one left, uh, standing.

No one would want to enter a tournament of losers, you say? Look at it like this: Fifteen of the nation’s unluckiest teams could finish their seasons with victories. Not even those high-and-mighty playoffs can make that claim.

Not buying it? Okay then, along we move.

Five things you should know
1. Division III serves the football gods in a literal sense. Each summer, some of our finest offer up dorms and fields to some of football’s finest.

Five Division III colleges were home to NFL training camps in 2004: St. Norbert (Green Bay Packers), McDaniel (Baltimore Ravens), St. John Fisher (Buffalo Bills), Rose-Hulman (Indianapolis Colts) and UW-River Falls (Kansas City Chiefs).

And that doesn’t count the Washington Redskins, who can’t seem to make up their minds about camping at Dickinson or at home.

Many NFL teams spend camp at colleges from the Division I-AA to NAIA level, and other prefer the comfort of their practice facilities.

2. Otterbein might have only a single victory to go with five consecutive OAC losses, but they haven’t laid down for opponents.

The Cardinals lost to No. 7 Baldwin-Wallace and No. 9 Capital by a touchdown each and fell against Marietta by a point. Their output in a 41-10 loss to top-ranked Mount Union was more than anyone’s scored on the Purple Raiders this season, and the 31-point margin was closer than any opponent had come to them.

On Saturday, Paul Steltzer’s 16-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Wolfe in the fourth period brought the Cardinals within 10 of 5-1 Ohio Northern.

It might not be winning, but the effort at Otterbein shows there aren’t any losers there either.

Otterbein and their friends in the bottom half of the OAC join Brockport State, Christopher Newport, UW-Stevens Point and Willamette as nominees for our 2004 insane schedule award.

3. Salve Regina is off to a 1-6 start, meaning the Seahawks again won’t have a winning season. Their last was a 7-3 run in 2000.

Ahead of Wittenberg, Lycoming and UW-La Crosse, Salve Regina was Division III’s seventh-winningest program in the 1990s, going 53-10 (.841) in seven seasons.

The Seahawks have never participated in an NCAA Division III playoff game, however.

4. Established in 1742, Moravian claims to be the nation’s sixth-oldest college, after Harvard, William and Mary, St. John’s (Md.), Yale and Penn.

That would make it the oldest among football-playing Division III schools.

Washington and Lee (1749) checks in at ninth overall. Dickinson (1773) is 16th, Hampden-Sydney (1776) is 17th and Washington and Jefferson (1781) 19th.

5. Terry Price’s next win at Maranatha Baptist will be his 125th, making the Crusaders’ coach perhaps the least well-known among the dozen or so active coaches in the club. 

Five games to watch
We don’t plan to give it a cheesy name like “Separation Saturday,” but this is a weekend as stocked with big games as any this season. Our five to keep tabs on:

> No. 4 Hardin-Simmons at No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor: Not only will the American Southwest championship likely be on the line, but so will the difference between resting easy before the playoff brackets are released Nov. 14 and not being able to sleep. The Crusaders haven’t been held below 49 points in a month, and the Cowboys are averaging nearly that many per game. Each is also gaining more than 500 yards per game. Do your best impression of a Texan and say “Lone Star State Shootout.”

>No. 5 Springfield at No. 24 St. John Fisher: We’ve mentioned the Empire 8 a bunch already in this column. Suffice it to say that the Pride will bring the ground attack (nation’s No. 2 rushing offense at 412 yards per game) and the Cardinals, coming off a loss to Norwich, will bring a flair for the dramatic. Five of their seven games have been decided by a touchdown or less. (Oh, and SJF’s Mark Robinson is a rushing attack in his own right. He averages 178 yards per game).

>No. 9 Capital at No. 7 Baldwin-Wallace: While the above games might play a team out of the playoffs, shooting for second place in the OAC is virtually a play-in game. There’s still Ohio Northern to contend with, and Baldwin-Wallace theoretically has a shot to win the OAC outright. The Yellow Jackets bring in the nation’s 21st-ranked rusher in Brandon Hedges and the fifth-best scoring defense, led by DL Ryan Lewis and his seven sacks. Capital brings a top-30 passing offense and pass defense.

>No. 19 Delaware Valley at Albright: A game behind the MAC leaders, the Lions control their own destiny by playing them both. Albright quarterback John Port is second in the nation in total offense behind Linfield’s Brett Elliot, while receivers Nick Cushman and Steve Mocey are combining to catch 15 passes per game. Del Val is 30th in the country in total offense and 31st in total defense. Plus, they have a rusher (Steve Cook, 114 yards/game) and a receiver (Don Marshall, 101) each averaging over 100 yards per game.

> Brockport State at Wesley: The Golden Eagles keep playing in big games, but we haven’t heard a peep about the Wolverines. They’re surrendering fewer than 11 points per game, while safety Rocky Myers (39 tackles, 10 pass breakups) is everywhere. The only Division III team from Delaware has a chance to win the ACFC, but first it must greet the conference newcomer with a loss.

Also keep an eye on: No. 1 Mount Union at Ohio Northern, Christopher Newport at Methodist, Muhlenberg at Johns Hopkins, Dickinson at Franklin and Marshall, Moravian at Lycoming, Hope at Adrian, Elmhurst at North Central, Wabash at Wittenberg, Occidental at Redlands, Carnegie Mellon at Washington U., Curry at Endicott.

Who are those guys?
There’s no need for our weekly look at teams stepping outside of Division III for competition, not including the UMAC. This week, everyone’s playing in-division.

Road trips of the week
Colorado College keeps making the list, so Colorado Springs to Memphis (to play Rhodes) is just another ho-hum week for the Tigers.

Carnegie Mellon at Washington U. might be just a conference game, but Pittsburgh to St. Louis requires a ride or flight across a good portion of the Midwest.

Eye-opener of the week
No. 2 Linfield showed a sign of weakness, falling behind Southern Oregon 24-12 in the opening half Saturday. Then the Wildcats flexed their muscle, scoring the next 27 points on the way to a 56-34 win.

Your feedback
Next week, Around the Nation will finally compile some of the best e-mails we’ve received from season’s kickoff through this past week:

This week, we’ll answer a couple of questions below.

Question & Answer
As part of our effort to stay connected with readers, we’d like to tackle as many of your questions each week as we can.

Q: Ann from Rudyard, Mich. asks:
“How come Alma College who is 5-1 with the toughest strength of schedule in the nation as decided by your website is not rated in the top 25 considering they have a recent history of being rated and have only one loss which came at the hands of a good D-II program!?” 

A: First, I wouldn’t read too much into the strength of schedule index, which is not something we’ve created. It’s something the NCAA came up with to help with playoff selections and we happen to publish it.

Right now, the SOS index tosses out the 59-21 loss to Tiffin (2-5 aside from the Alma game) and mostly reflects that four of Alma’s five wins so far came on the road. It does not make the schedule Alma played the nation’s toughest. In reality, it’s not even close.

As for the Scots and the Top 25, it’s partially a numbers issue. At the moment, there are 16 unbeaten teams and 31 more with just one loss, so mathematically, there’s no way a Top 25 could contain all of the teams one might expect to be ranked. We have twice as many teams as Division I-A, and yet we don’t rank the top 50.

Pollsters look at wins and losses, but also strength of opponents, margin of victory and even performance of the conference against out-of-conference competition, to get a feel for how early season wins relate to each other.

The margin of Alma’s loss to Tiffin carries more weight, than say, UW-La Crosse’s 1-point loss to a ranked Division II team in South Dakota.

And sometimes when ranking teams you simply have to ask yourself “if these guys played, who would win?”

All that said, I think Alma is probably in the 30-40 range at the moment and is a good bet to work its way into the top 25 with continued success in the MIAA.

Q: A Northwest conference follower asks:
Keith, 
What do you think the chances are for Willamette to go to the playoffs, if they run the table but lose to Linfield? That would mean they beat Southern Oregon, PLU, Whitworth, Western Oregon D2, Puget Sound, Menlo, Lewis and Clark. They lost in two overtimes to UMHB and should have won except for two blocked extra points … They lost to NAIA Eastern Oregon by just seven and had their top two free safeties out and the conference’s best middle linebacker out …I just think that there is no way this team should be kept home if they go 7-3.”

A: I think there is a good chance for the NWC runner-up to make the playoffs, since it looks like most of the western conferences (MIAC, IIAC, SCIAC) will send just one team.

What affects you more is Pool B competition in the ACFC, PAC and UAA, and there appear to be only two other really good candidates (Salisbury and Washington and Jefferson) for the four Pool B bids. You'd think Linfield would get one even if Willamette wins the conference.

If the Bearcats were to win out except for Linfield, my first instinct would be to say three losses hurt. But your main Pool B competition would be PLU and Whitworth (which you'd have an advantage over by beating them later this season) and Brockport State. They have two losses, but if they were to win out (against Wesley, Rowan, TCNJ) they would have a very good strength of schedule within Division III (by beating Ithaca and Rowan, losing only to Salisbury and St. John Fisher). 

So, the long answer is, that fourth Pool B spot might come down to the NWC runner-up and Brockport, or perhaps Wesley or Carnegie Mellon. 

I'd say beating Linfield is the surest bet, otherwise anything can happen. But a 7-3 Willamette team with wins over PLU and Whitworth (which beat Eastern Oregon by 3) might look as good as anyone else in Pool B. I'd say 60-40 shot in Willamette’s favor by winning out except for Linfield, 100% if the Bearcats beat Linfield, Whitworth and PLU.”

Clarification
Around the Nation would like to clarify an Oct. 6 reference to Sul Ross State’s losing streak.

In 2002, Sul Ross State won and later forfeited two wins (against Austin and McMurry) for use of an ineligible player.

According to Amy Carlton, assistant commissioner of the American Southwest Conference, the particular NCAA bylaws regarding the violation in question allow the outcomes and statistics of Sul Ross State’s forfeited games to stand in the school’s all-time records and in the coaches’ records.

There is a more severe penalty in the bylaws which requires teams to make restitution, including erasing the wins from the record books. 

Through Oct. 16, Sul Ross State has lost 17 consecutive games dating back to the two forfeited games. They had lost seven more games prior to the two forfeited games.