/columns/around-the-nation/2004/midseason-look-at-the-races

A midseason look at the races

Chris Jacoubs leads MAC front-runner Moravian with 172 yards per game.
Moravian athletics photo

There are 11 teams in the MAC, but the past few seasons have provided for a pretty standard pecking order, with Lycoming at the top, and Widener, King's and Wilkes in a pretty strong second tier.

So six weeks into 2004, how come we see Moravian, Delaware Valley and Albright at the top of the standings?

The nation’s No. 1 receiver (Nick Cushman) and No. 2 passer (John Port) have fueled Albright’s rise, while Moravian has ridden running back Chris Jacoubs and a turnover-forcing defense to a 5-0 start. Delaware Valley’s coach might have been mentored by pass-happy Steve Spurrier, but the Aggies have found balance on offense and with a defense that’s been a big part of a 5-0 start.

But what makes the MAC our pick for craziest conference race through five games is that there’s really no end in sight. Not only is the league topsy-turvy, but the only two teams without a conference loss (Moravian and Delaware Valley) don’t meet in this year’ schedule rotation (MAC teams play nine conference games although some teams play against 10 conference schools).

So the Greyhounds and Aggies could each run the table and find themselves in this year’s postseason, in separate brackets or both in the East, where the MAC now calls home instead of the South.

Albright’s seven turnovers this past Saturday led to its first loss, but the 4-1 Lions could still be a player in the MAC title chase. Since Moravian and Delaware Valley do not meet, Albright’s Oct. 23 game with Delaware Valley or its Nov. 6 trip to Bethlehem may decide the conference.

Albright has been energized by a youthful coach in 1991 Penn State graduate E.J. Sandusky. The son of legendary (at least in Central Pennsylvania) former Nittany Lions assistant Jerry Sandusky has been at Albright’s helm for seven years, back to when the Lions were one of Pennsylvania’s best teams.

Delaware Valley had been a long-time league also-ran before 1992 Florida grad G.A. Mangus arrived to guide the Aggies through a Bridgewater-like ascent. From 2-8 in 2002 to 9-2 last season marked Division III’s most impressive turnaround.

Compared with Sandusky and Mangus, Moravian coach Scot Dapp is the elder statesman. The Greyhounds made a playoff appearance in 1993, and has sprinkled winning seasons in between.

History isn’t exactly on anyone’s side, and with a handful of teams used to winning stuck in the middle of the 2004 pack, it may not be smooth sailing for any of the three midseason leaders.

One thing we do know, by virtue of the automatic qualifier. There’s at least one ticket to the playoffs waiting for the last team standing.

If you haven’t had time to follow the other 25 conferences this season, here’s a capsule look at what you need to know for the stretch run towards the final 28-team playoff bracket:

Atlantic Central (ACFC)
Contenders: No. 18 Salisbury, Wesley, Brockport State
Status: Expecting a close finish 
Likely playoff teams: Two via Pool B possible 
Key games remaining: Brockport State at Wesley, Oct. 23; Wesley at Salisbury, Oct. 30 
Title chase could hinge on: The health of Sea Gulls quarterback Dustin Johnson, who ran for 159 yards against the Golden Eagles but missed games against Greensboro and Newport News. Johnson played this past week against Buffalo State. Salisbury scored 111 points while junior Travis Peters made his first career starts, but Johnson appears to be a special option threat with enough passing skills to carry the Sea Gulls against top-notch competition.

American Southwest (ASC)
Contenders: No. 5 Mary Hardin-Baylor, No. 7 Hardin-Simmons
Status: Expecting a close finish
Likely playoff teams: One in Pool A, a second in Pool C very possible 
Key games remaining: HSU at UMHB, Oct. 23; Texas Lutheran at HSU, Nov. 13
Title chase could hinge on: The Crusaders-Cowboys game of course, but we also think the Bulldogs have a shot at becoming that third ASC team in the mix. Two years ago it was Howard Payne, and last year it was East Texas Baptist that actually snatched the playoff bid. Texas Lutheran trailed UMHB by six with 6:50 to play in week three. If it can get to the last week of the season without a loss, they could mathematically be in position to force another three-way tiebreaker.

Centennial (CC)
Contenders: No. 24 McDaniel, Johns Hopkins, Muhlenberg, Franklin and Marshall, Dickinson
Status: Wide-open
Likely playoff teams: One in Pool A, a second in Pool C a slim possibility 
Key games remaining: Dickinson at McDaniel, Oct. 16; Muhlenberg at Johns Hopkins, Dickinson at F&M, Oct. 23; McDaniel at F&M, Oct. 30; Muhlenberg at McDaniel, Nov. 6; McDaniel at Johns Hopkins, Nov. 13.
Title chase could hinge on: McDaniel’s final four games. The Green Terror played the most impressive out-of-conference slate and is in the driver’s seat by being the only team without a conference loss. McDaniel hosts Dickinson, follows a bye week with a trip to F&M, hosts Muhlenberg and finishes at Johns Hopkins. 

College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (CCIW)
Contenders: No. 8 Wheaton, No. 22 Augustana
Status: Expecting a close finish
Likely playoff teams: One via Pool A, a second in Pool C very possible 
Key game remaining: Wheaton at Augustana, Nov. 13
Title chase could hinge on: Whether the Thunder and Vikings can get to Nov. 13 unbeaten. Carthage, Elmhurst and North Central are all 4-1 with one conference loss, and Illinois Wesleyan has just one CCIW loss as well. In this league, just about every team has the potential to be dangerous on a given Saturday (only two finished with losing records last year). Augustana’s trip to North Central Nov. 6 may be trouble, but otherwise we expect this to be a two-horse race with a photo finish.

Empire 8 (E8)
Contenders: No. 6 Springfield, No. 14 St. John Fisher, No. 17 Ithaca
Status: Wide-open
Likely playoff teams: One via Pool A, a second in Pool C very possible 
Key games remaining: Springfield at St. John Fisher, Oct. 23; Springfield at Ithaca, Oct. 30
Title chase could hinge on: The Pride’s road prowess. Four of Springfield’s first five games are at home. After hosting Plymouth State, the make their two toughest road trips of the year. After struggling against Alfred (which could mean the 4-1 Saxons, who trailed by five in the fourth quarter, are a dark horse candidate), Springfield’s two-week stretch resembles a pair of playoff games. A three-way tie is possible here, as is a Pool C bid in the Empire 8’s first season as an automatic qualifier conference.

Heartland (HCAC)
Contenders: Mt. St. Joseph, Anderson
Status: Almost over 
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only
Key game remaining: Anderson at Mt. St. Joseph, Nov. 6
Title chase could hinge on: Hanover’s Oct. 30 game with Anderson. The Panthers, a conference power which has already lost to the Lions, could do this Mount a favor by knocking off the Ravens a week before they gear up for a Nov. 6 clash where we‘d otherwise expect the title to be on the line. Bluffton, the only other team without a conference loss, has a tough three weeks ahead. With Hanover as the spoiler, nothing is certain, not even that Mt. St. Joseph will dodge the two losses it needs to avoid to stay ahead of the Panthers. Anderson plays four of five from last week through Nov. 6 on the road, and might be worn out by the time its big games arrive.

Illini-Badger (IBFC)
Contenders: Lakeland, Aurora, Concordia (Wis.)
Status: Expecting a close finish
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only
Key game remaining: Lakeland at Aurora, Oct. 30
Title chase could hinge on: What the Muskies can muster in a close game. Outscoring IBFC opponents 177-20 through three games, Lakeland is clearly the conference’s most impressive team to date. Aurora, 3-0 against IBFC comp and outscoring it 135-28, is not far behind. But every conference team has at two losses, so the last team standing will get the only playoff berth available here. Defending champ Concordia (Wis.), which has already lost to Aurora, could get into the race with a win at Lakeland on Saturday.

Independents
Likely playoff teams: Zero in Pool B. All 19 independents have at least two losses, and probably won’t have the strength of schedule to make the 28-team field over a two-loss team from the ACFC, PAC, NWC or UAA, of which there should be at least four.

Iowa (IIAC)
Contenders: Buena Vista, Central, Coe, Wartburg, Simpson
Status: Wide-open
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only 
Key games remaining: all of them
Title chase could hinge on: Buena Vista’s closing power. The Beavers, out in front at 4-0 in IIAC games, close with three of the conference’s traditional powers, Simpson, Central and Coe, all at home. A game with Dubuque is in between, but the Spartans’ upset against Coe last week was their second win the past 40 IIAC contests. The Beavers pose on the cover of their media guide on Harley Davidsons with the motto “Let’s ride.” They’d like to ride 2004 out. If BVU falters, Central and Coe are in the best positions with just one IIAC loss, while Wartburg, Simpson and Loras could play spoiler or get in the mix if the Beavers falter twice and the others don‘t take advantage.

Liberty (LL)
Contenders: Hobart, Union, Rochester
Status: Expecting a close finish
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only
Key games remaining: Union at Hobart, Nov. 6; Rochester at Hobart, Nov. 13
Title chase could hinge on: RPI’s late development. The Engineers, a final four team last season, have struggled to a 2-3 start this year. With a trio of contenders, RPI could play spoiler in November games at Rochester and against Union. The Dutchmen have already beaten the Yellowjackets, 50-36, so if Hobart wins out through its Nov. 6 game with Union, a three-way tie may still be possible.

Michigan (MIAA)
Contenders: Hope, Alma, Albion, Adrian
Status: Expecting a close finish 
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only 
Key games remaining: Hope at Adrian, Oct. 23; Albion at Hope, Oct. 30; Albion at Alma, Nov. 6; Hope at Alma, Nov. 13
Title chase could hinge on: How many of the MIAA three A’s factor into the race. Albion and Adrian should make this a four-horse race, but Hope and Alma are currently out in front. Since 2000, of Hope and the three As, only Adrian has had a losing season, and the Bulldogs are 19-6 in their past 25. If you can keep this straight, Adrian’s already beaten Albion and lost to Alma, while Hope has all three As left on its schedule.

Minnesota (MIAC)
Contenders: No. 4 St. John's, No. 20 Concordia-Moorhead
Status: Almost over 
Likely playoff teams: One via Pool A, a second in Pool C possible 
Key game remaining: Concordia at St. John’s, Oct. 16
Title chase could hinge on: Saturday’s game in Collegeville. Neither contender has been tested in the conference — Gustavus Adolphus’ 28-point loss to the Johnnies and 15-point setback to the Cobbers have been their closest games since St. John’s lost to UW-Eau Claire in the opener. Concordia-Moorhead, giving up just 10 points per game, would seem to have a better Pool C chance with a loss, but not beating St. John’s would leave them without a signature victory. The Johnnies can’t afford to take a second loss and hold out playoff hope. What it means is Saturday is pretty much this year’s MIAC title game, assuming all the other pieces fall into place.

Midwest (MWC)
Contenders: St. Norbert, Lake Forest, Monmouth
Status: Almost over 
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only 
Key game remaining: Lake Forest at St. Norbert, Nov. 13
Title chase could hinge on: The way the schedule is set up. As usual, St. Norbert’s already beaten the other top MWC team, in this case Monmouth. Lake Forest lost 14-0 at Monmouth on Oct. 2, so it can win out and force a three-way tie, assuming the Green Knights and Scots don’t stumble. If any of the trio suffers an unexpected loss, that could change things; if not, we just wait until the final Saturday of the season in DePere.

North Coast (NCAC)
Contenders: No. 12 Wooster, No. 23 Wabash, Wittenberg
Status: Expecting a close finish 
Likely playoff teams: One via Pool A, a second in Pool C possible
Key games remaining: Wooster at Wabash, Oct. 16; Wabash at Wittenberg, Oct. 23, Wittenberg at Wooster, Nov. 6.
Title chase could hinge on: Which defense plays best. This is the classic three-way race, each with one game against another at home and one on the road. Wittenberg, which has no Pool C shot by virtue of its lost to Capital, must win out. Unfortunately, its defense isn’t anywhere near that of the Little Giants and Scots, each of which rank among Division III’s top 10 in scoring defense and top 30 in total defense. Though the NCAC has three Ws like the MIAA has three As, this really may come down to the winner of Saturday’s Wooster-Wabash game. With a relatively low strength of schedule rating, however, the loser will need to hope for other conferences’ runners-up to pick up a second loss.

New England (NEFC)
Contenders: Curry, Fitchburg State
Status: Wide-open
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only
Key games remaining: Nichols at Curry, Westfield State at Bridgewater State, Oct. 16; Curry at Endicott, Oct. 23; Fitchburg State at Worcester State, Nov. 6
Title chase could hinge on: Whether Curry can win the Boyd Division. It should, and if so, it‘s the NEFC‘s best bet for a playoff victory. Eighteen of the Colonels’ 34 points allowed this season came in a surprising loss at Mass-Dartmouth. They left themselves an uphill climb, as Endicott and Nichols each control its own destiny in the Boyd Division. In the Bogan, Fitchburg State has a leg up on two teams it beat, Bridgewater State and Westfield State. The Falcons are in the Bogan driver’s seat, but a loss could thrust as many as four teams back into the Division title picture. In Division III’s only conference with a title game, performance against six division opponents determine participants in the NEFC Championship, with a playoff berth on the line. That means Curry’s early 14-3 win over Fitchburg doesn’t hurt the Falcons’ title chances. This is a conference title picture that needs time to clear up.

New England Small College (NESCAC)
Contenders: Trinity (Conn.), Amherst
Status: Almost over 
Likely playoff teams: Zero, as allowed by NESCAC presidents
Key games remaining: Amherst at Trinity, Nov. 6
Title chase could hinge on: Trinity’s consistency. The Bantams are one of the three safest conference championship bets, but they have to be able to do it week in and week out. The Lord Jeffs are the No. 11 in the nation in total offense, while Trinity is No. 8 in total defense.

New Jersey (NJAC)
Contenders: No. 16 Rowan, Cortland State
Status: Almost over 
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only 
Key games remaining: Cortland at Rowan, Oct. 16
Title chase could hinge on: The Profs’ early prowess. With a home win on Saturday, Rowan would hold an advantage over the three NJAC contenders closest in the conference standings, Cortland, New Jersey and Western Connecticut. Montclair State’s slide has turned what we thought might be an intriguing race into a conference that could allow the Profs to coast back into the playoffs.

Northwest (NWC)
Contender: No. 2 Linfield
Status: Almost over 
Likely playoff teams: One via Pool B, a second possible 
Key games remaining: Willamette at Linfield, Nov. 13
Title chase could hinge on: With wins against Pacific Lutheran and Whitworth in the rear-view mirror, the Wildcats should be primed for a first-round bye if it can close with a win over its in-state rival. On the other hand, Willamette, Whitworth, PLU and even Puget Sound could be locked in a battle for another playoff spot. In a weak Pool B field, a two-loss team could secure a bid, possibly earning it a date with the SCIAC champion in round one.

Ohio (OAC)
Contender: No. 1 Mount Union
Status: Almost over 
Likely playoff teams: One via Pool A, a second via Pool C very possible
Key games remaining: Mount Union at Ohio Northern, Capital at Baldwin-Wallace, Oct. 23; Mount Union at Baldwin-Wallace, Ohio Northern at Capital, Oct. 30
Title chase could hinge on: Forgive us for assuming the Purple Raiders will win another conference title. It’s the most sure bet in college football, or so say MUC’s 89 consecutive OAC victories. But the last two weekends in October could decide which running mate could also make the playoffs. The Crusaders-Yellow Jackets game might be the most competitive of the year in the OAC‘s upper half, and any 9-1 team with a loss to Mount Union is a Pool C lock.

Old Dominion (ODAC)
Contender: No. 25 Bridgewater (Va.)
Status: Almost over 
Likely playoff teams: One via Pool A, a second via Pool C possible
Key games remaining: None
Title chase could hinge on: It’s safe to assume that the Eagles took the lead for good in a two-horse race by beating Hampden-Sydney. The only suspense left in these parts is whether the high-scoring Tigers can finish 9-1, perhaps impressing the committee with a win against Johns Hopkins on Nov. 6. But each Blue Jays loss, if they don’t run the table, hurts H-SC’s playoff chances.

Presidents (PAC)
Contenders: No. 13 Washington and Jefferson, Waynesburg
Status: Expecting a close finish
Likely playoff teams: One via Pool B, a second is possible 
Key game remaining: Waynesburg at W&J, Oct. 30
Title chase could hinge on: The last gun smoking in a Yellow Jackets-Presidents shootout. Waynesburg, despite its loss to Hanover, is defending champion and could give the six-team conference two 9-1 playoff teams by beating W&J. Then again, Waynesburg could struggle to beat Thiel. As one of 2004’s unpredictable teams, we’ll have to wait and see.

Southern (SCAC)
Contender: No. 9 Trinity (Texas)
Status: Almost over 
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only 
Key games remaining: None
Title chase could hinge on: Word out of SCAC country is that DePauw will someday overtake the SCAC’s other Tigers. Trinity kept that day in the future with a fourth-and-goal TD pass with 10 seconds left two weeks ago, and now should wrap up its 12th consecutive conference title and eighth straight playoff berth.

Southern California (SCIAC)
Contenders: Occidental, Redlands
Status: Expecting a close finish
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only 
Key game remaining: Occidental at Redlands, Oct. 23
Title chase could hinge on: The return game. At three points from undefeated, the Tigers are attempting to wrest the title from the Bulldogs grasp. A tight game could turn on a pair of return men ranked No. 2 in the nation: Oxy kick returner Zac Sakowski or Redlands’ Alex Ballard (averaging 38.8 yards per return). A strong Occidental finish, and they could be saying “playoffs” like famous alum and former Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora.

University Athletic (UAA)
Contenders: Washington U., Carnegie Mellon, Case Western Reserve 
Status: Wide-open
Likely playoff teams: Zero, but CMU has an outside shot at Pool B 
Key games remaining: All of them
Title chase could hinge on: The Tartans’ trip to St. Louis Oct. 23, but no one is out of the UAA hunt with just the Bears win over Chicago under the belt. With the conference’s best record at 3-2, however, Carnegie Mellon is the only UAA team with any remote chance at the playoffs.

USA South (USAC)
Contenders: Shenandoah, Methodist, Christopher Newport, Averett
Status: Wide-open
Likely playoff teams: One, Pool A bid only
Key games remaining: CNU at Methodist, Oct. 23; Averett at CNU, Nov. 6; Methodist at Shenandoah, Nov. 13
Title chase could hinge on: Just about every single game. Even Ferrum, stuck at the bottom of the standings, is no cakewalk. The Hornets beat the Captains by four and Methodist handed Averett its first loss 36-34 last week. The Monarchs and Hornets final Saturday clash could settle the playoff bid, but this may get ugly in the interim. USAC teams may beat up on each other before sending a representative into the playoffs.

Wisconsin (WIAC)
Contenders: No. 3 UW-La Crosse, No. 15 UW-Eau Claire, No. 19 UW-Whitewater
Status: Wide-open
Likely playoff teams: One via Pool A, a second via Pool C possible
Key games remaining: Almost all of them. Only the UW-Oshkosh at UW-River Falls game Oct. 30 is likely to not have a significant impact on the race.
Title chase could hinge on: The healthiest team. In the WIAC, nothing’s a given. Five teams have one loss overall, and five more have a conference loss. And one of the conference’s best teams, UW-Stevens Point, has played the No. 2, 3 and 15 teams in the country, and has outscored opponents 98-10 in two wins. A week after Platteville stunned Whitewater, River Falls upset the Pioneers. This might be La Crosse’s year for a clean WIAC sweep, but if we’ve learned nothing else, we’ve learned not to bet on it.

Five games to watch 
If you’ve been paying attention above, there’s no need to rehash the importance of these games. Here are this week’s four best games, plus five more to look at:

>No. 12 Wooster at No. 23 Wabash 

>No. 20 Concordia-Moorhead at No. 4 St. John's 

>No. 17 Ithaca at Brockport State 

>No. 15 UW-Eau Claire at No. 3 UW-La Crosse 

Also keep an eye on: Elmhurst at No. 8 Wheaton, Cortland State at No. 16 Rowan, Lycoming at No. 21 Delaware Valley, Concordia (Wis.) at Lakeland, Wartburg at Coe 

Who are those guys? 
Our weekly look at teams stepping outside of Division III for competition, not including the UMAC: 

> vs. I-AA: Catholic at LaSalle 

> vs. NAIA: Azusa Pacific at Trinity (Texas) 

Thomas More at Kentucky Wesleyan

Waldorf at Buena Vista 

Road trips of the week 
Huntingdon at Colorado College: A meeting of two Division III schools stuck in lonely outposts, the Hawks make the trip from Montgomery, Ala., to Colorado Springs. 

Honorable mention: Millsaps at Rose-Hulman, Pacific Lutheran at Chapman

Eye-openers of the week 
Montclair State, like RPI earlier this season, fell way out of the Top 25 with a loss to Kean. Dubuque’s defeat of Coe marked the Spartans’ first IIAC win since Sept. 15, 2001, 26 conference contests ago.

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Greg Thomas

Greg Thomas graduated in 2000 from Wabash College. He has contributed to D3football.com since 2014 as a bracketologist, Kickoff writer, curator of Quick Hits, and Around The Nation Podcast guest host before taking co-host duties over in 2021. Greg lives in Claremont, California.

Previous columnists: 2016-2019: Adam Turer.
2014-2015: Ryan Tipps.
2001-2013: Keith McMillan.

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