Dante Washington had made a name for himself running the football this season.

By Keith McMillan
D3sports.com

D3football.com may be able to give you a good idea of what will happen Sunday, when we find out which teams make the 28-team NCAA playoff field and who they’re matched up against. But despite knowing perhaps more than is healthy to know about these teams, we really have no effect on the pairings.

Or do we?

Though we don’t have the benefit of knowing Saturday’s outcomes, we can still give the selection committee our two cents and see if they listen. Here are the five playoff matchups Around the Nation would like to see, and five more first-round games we’d like to avoid.

We’d like to see:

1. CARTHAGE vs. WOOSTER: This wouldn’t just be a matchup of the Nos. 2 and 3 rated North teams in the NCAA regional rankings. It would match the first- and third-best per-game rushers expected to make the postseason.

The Scots’ Tony Sutton leads the nation with 1,667 yards (185.2 per game) and 25 touchdowns. The Redmen’s Dante Washington (1,385 yards, 153.9 per game, and nine TDs) would make this a battle of two of the nation’s best ballcarriers, not to mention the offensive lines that block for them.

It’s a 7-hour, 415-mile drive to Wooster, though, and there are plenty of other first-round games that might mean shorter trips and larger crowds. Carthage, based in Kenosha, Wis., are fewer than 60 miles from UW-Whitewater, another playoff contender with a powerful runner. Colin Burns leads the Warhawks’ ground game with more than 148 yards per outing, though he’s scored just five touchdowns.

2. MOUNT ST. JOSEPH vs. McDANIEL: We’d call this our first-one-to-score bowl. Though Mount Union, Concordia-Moorhead, Salisbury and Ithaca each have top-15 defenses as well, the Lions and Green Terror are each giving up about 240 yards per game and fewer than 13 points. 

McDaniel needs to beat Johns Hopkins to get in, not to mention avoid a 5-way tie in the Centennial. They’d be the featured defense, not just because they are surrendering eight points per game and are coming off a 7-6 win against Muhlenberg, but because they’ve given up 37 points in the past six weeks. Mt. St. Joseph, allowing 12.9 points per game, is already in.

But we’d mostly like to see this game because a meeting of Heartland and Centennial champions would stretch the 500-mile fly-or-drive rule to the limit. Cincinnati is 495 miles from Westminster, Md., by the main interstates, but the NCAA uses the shortest possible drive to determine mileage, which in this case is 466 miles. 

For a similar defense-oriented matchup, the Green Terror wouldn’t even have to leave Maryland. Salisbury has given up two touchdowns or fewer in six of nine games, and is less than three hours from McDaniel. But Salisbury has more of an offense.

3. ST. JOHN FISHER vs. HOBART: These two schools met 14 times from 1990-2003, with Hobart winning 10, but dropped each other from the schedule as the Liberty League and Empire 8 expanded. This game would renew the rivalry, especially since the Cardinals won by three in 2002 and eight in 2003.

The game could also be a shootout, as St. John Fisher scores 41 points per game and Hobart 34.

If Alfred beats the Cardinals and Ithaca wins the Empire 8 automatic qualifier, it would be a very similar situation. The Statesmen first played the Bombers in 1961 and won only three of 27 meetings between then and 2003. One of those wins came in 2002 by a score of 17-6, and in 2003 Ithaca won 14-7. When the two Upstate leagues expanded, the Hobart-Ithaca game was another casualty.

While neither series may not have started out tight, the recent games have been, and we would welcome a rematch. 

Plus, these would be big-crowd, make-the-committee-smile games. Pittsford, home of St. John Fisher, is 45 minutes north of Geneva, where Hobart is located. Ithaca is an hour and 15 minutes in the opposite direction.

4. NEFC CHAMP vs. IBFC CHAMP: This one we acknowledge is neither probable nor possible under the current system. But it doesn’t mean we wouldn’t like to see it.

Of the 26 conferences, three have made four or more playoff appearances without a win since the playoffs expanded to 28 teams in 1999. These are two of them. And with a chance for a little national respect on the line in the form of a postseason victory, we’d be fine with Aurora vs. Curry or Fitchburg State.

The IBFC’s Spartans are ranked among the nation’s 35 best scoring offenses and defenses, but we also consider their conference competition to be among the weakest in Division III. 

The Boyd Division champion Colonels and the Bogan Division champion Falcons met on Sept. 11, with Curry winning 14-3 at home. They meet again in the NEFC title game at Worcester State.

Curry leads the nation in turnover margin with 44 takeaways and 20 giveaways, a margin of nearly three per game. The Falcons aren’t far behind, with 39 takeaways and 24 giveaways.

This conference is hungry for some respect, but with the way the East shakes down, it looks like a road trip to the Delaware Valley (if not the school of that name, perhaps a game in Southern New Jersey against Rowan).

The likely matchup for Aurora is Wooster, though the CCIW champion and runner-up may both be closer. If the teams are seeded seventh and second within one bracket and are within 500 miles of each other, the committee will match them up barring another game in the bracket that forces a shakeup. 

5. SALISBURY vs. ROWAN: This would not be a first-round game, as the Profs are slated for a bye in our latest projections and the Sea Gulls a home game. A few years ago, matching these two teams up would have appeared to be a blowout. But a look at this year’s common opponents should keep you from jumping to that conclusion now.

Salisbury whomped Brockport State 46-21 on Sept. 11, while Rowan needed a 21-yard Mike Orihel TD pass in overtime to get past the Golden Eagles 39-33 on Oct. 30.

The Sea Gulls beat Kean 44-0 on Oct. 16, while Rowan topped the 2-7 Cougars 24-16 on Oct. 23. For what it’s worth, Salisbury played both games at home while Rowan was on the road for both.

Though the Profs have had two one-point wins and two by a TD, they are 7-0 against Division III competition. That could mean they, Delaware Valley and the Sea Gulls all finish with unblemished records and think they deserve the bye. We don’t care who gets it if we can see the Profs take on Salisbury at some point.

HM: Any MAC-Centennial matchup is still a literal grudge match, since CC schools split from the MAC to form an academically elite conference.

We’d like to avoid:

1. WILLAMETTE vs. LINFIELD: If the both of these teams get in, they’ll be an obvious pairing because they’re both located in Oregon. But, they meet Saturday to conclude the regular season. Both the committee and we fans frown on rematches, especially since this would involve teams playing each other on back-to-back weekends.

Our most recent projected pairings have Occidental going to Willamette, which the Bearcats must consider great, since their fans are on edge about even getting into the field. Linfield would have a bye, but more than likely host the Willamette-Occidental winner in the round of 16. So much for mixing things up.

2. SALISBURY vs. SHENANDOAH or BRIDGEWATER vs. CHRISTOPHER NEWPORT: These teams met in the regular season, and while rules don’t necessarily prevent rematches between non-conference foes, there are plenty of other options in the Mid-Atlantic.

First, we have to determine which USAC teams gets into the playoffs, if not both. If two get in, the south makes a group of three Texas teams who will play for one spot in the final eight, while a group of four (three Virginia teams and Washington and Jefferson) battle for the other. If both USAC teams made it and the Eagles were sent to Washington & Jefferson, then Christopher Newport and Shenandoah, USAC foes, would meet again, and that’s no good. Likewise, the Eagles have already played the Captains and the Hornets.

Since we’re projecting Salisbury in the East bracket, let’s keep them there and hope the Eagles get a rematch with Shenandoah, since someone may have to play someone again. In the Eagles’ 35-13 win at Shenandoah Sept. 11, the Hornets outgained Bridgewater and held the ball for 41 of 60 minutes. The Eagles made three key special teams plays in that game, and if the two were to meet again, we may see a very different football game.

Of course, if 7-2 Methodist beats Shenandoah and Christopher Newport loses to Ferrum like it did to end the regular season last year, the Monarchs are league champions and take a playoff berth. And as we’ve learned, the last week is always full of surprises.

3. WHEATON vs. HOPE: If the Thunder gets in as CCIW champion or with a Pool C bid, and the Flying Dutchmen make it when the MIAA is sorted out, we could be stuck with a rematch of this Sept. 25 game, which was 31-28 in the third quarter before Wheaton pulled away and won 45-28.

These teams met in last season’s regular season and again in the playoffs, so another playoff meeting would give them four games in two seasons. With 230 teams, and 28 in the playoffs, no team should have to play the same opponent so often.

Hope needs to win at Alma and pull for an Albion loss at Olivet to represent the MIAA in the playoffs anyway. The Britons, who beat Hope and Alma in consecutive weeks, are in the playoffs with a victory.

4. ANY MATCHUP OF TEXAS TEAMS: Not that a rematch of Trinity and Texas Lutheran wouldn’t be fun, given that the Tigers beat the Bulldogs 41-32 on Sept. 11, but it’s a possibility if Texas Lutheran beats Hardin-Simmons and claims the ASC title through pick-from-a-hat tiebreaker. What’s more likely is a Mary Hardin-Baylor/Trinity game in the first round, with the winner traveling to Hardin-Simmons, assuming the Cowboys finish 10-0 and snag the bye.

It’s our opinion that the playoffs should present challenges that could not be experienced in the course of the regular season. Since any of these Texas teams could meet each other during the year, we’d much rather see two or three of them go elsewhere and take on teams from Illinois, Virginia or Pennsylvania. But outside of an Occidental flight from California to Texas, we can’t envision many scenarios that don’t involve something of a Texas-elimination tournament, with no more than one Lone Star state team advancing to the round of eight.

5. ST. NORBERT vs. UW-WHITEWATER: We don’t want to pick on the Green Knights, who won nine straight after losing the opener 41-9 to the Warhawks and have already notched another MWC title. Plenty of good teams were pummeled by WIAC teams, including 7-2 Albion, a 40-0 loser to 5-4 UW-Oshkosh and 7-3 Thiel, a 40-14 loser to 5-4 UW-Platteville. And we don’t want to see any of them play a WIAC team again, at least not right off the bat.

Whitewater itself might not even be in the playoffs. It first has to get past UW-La Crosse, and then hope for UW-Stevens Point to lose. If La Crosse beats Whitewater, it holds a head-to-head edge over Stevens Point. If the Pointers and Warhawks win, UW-SP gets into the playoffs and could face Linfield again somewhere down the road.

If La Crosse or Stevens Point were to get in, they could meet the Green Knights in the first round. And St. Norbert, according to the NCAA’s regional rankings, would host either team.

Undefeated watch
The only thing that changed from last week was, now that Alma lost to Albion, Rowan and Trinity (Texas) are now the only teams with a loss but none against Division III teams.

No. 1 Mount Union, No. 2 Linfield, No. 3 Hardin-Simmons, No. 4 Concordia-Moorhead, No. 5 Washington & Jefferson, No. 6 Wooster, No. 10 Salisbury, No. 11 Delaware Valley, Mt. St. Joseph and Trinity (Conn.) each remained unbeaten. All but the Presidents have one week to play to close out an undefeated season. 

If the NESCAC’s Bantams were to finish unbeaten by topping rival Wesleyan, they’d run their streak to 22 and could carry it into next fall with no danger of a loss in the playoffs. Trinity has not been beaten since Sept. 28, 2002, at Williams.

Winless watch
Guilford beat Catholic 35-21, Defiance topped Manchester 19-14 and Benedictine beat Concordia (Ill.) 21-15 in matchups of winless teams. The group’s membership dropped from 11 to eight in the process.

Bethany and Heidelberg each get one more chance to get a W, while Oberlin goes to Hiram in a battle of 0-9 teams. Bethany’s game against Defiance, postponed because of flooding in September, takes place Nov. 20.

Rivalry watch
Some games are fun even when there’s nothing but pride on the line. A quick mention of the Division III rivalry games that have not yet been contested:

> Williams and Amherst meet for the 119th time. Each will close out a winning season, but in this little big game, a rivalry win makes the season.

> Wabash and DePauw each have winning seasons clinched as well, though neither is playoff-bound. So when the Little Giants host the Tigers, who play for the first time since 1980 without coach Nick Mourouzis on the sideline, it will be the playoffs. At game No. 111, it’ll be the rivalry played this weekend with the second-most meetings between the opponents.

> Speaking of playoffs, Hampden-Sydney had designs on a spot, but after a loss to Johns Hopkins, all the Tigers can manage is a third consecutive season with eight or more victories. To get there, they’ll have to beat rival Randolph-Macon, which took Bridgewater to overtime last weekend and can close new coach Pedro Arruza’s season with a win in the teams’ 110th meeting.

> St. Thomas holds out hope for a Pool C playoff berth and will have to get through defending national champion St. John's to do it. The teams have met more than 100 times, and since the Johnnies aren’t playoff bound, another fine season in Collegeville will come to a close.

> Moravian and Muhlenberg will play each other after each had its playoff hopes virtually dashed in the past few weekends. With seven wins on each side of the ledger, No. 8 will put a huge smile on the face of someone’s alumni.

> Kings Point and Coast Guard battle annually for the Secretary’s Cup. And when we say battle, we don’t mean to be trite. The U.S Merchant Marine Academy, which you know as Kings Point, and the U.S. Coast Guard Academy do the pomp and circumstance like some other service academies you might know of. For the first time, this is also a Liberty League game.

> Cortland State and Ithaca, Cortaca Jug, winning seasons clinched … what more can we say? Good luck getting tickets? Oh, the past seven games in the series have been decided by eight points or fewer. Get on board.

Of this year’s rivalry games above, most feature teams with winning records. And for more on these games,we wrote about some of the rivalries’ backgrounds on Nov. 14, 2002.

Poll beef of the week
I use strength of schedule to determine a lot early in the season, but this far into the season, any undefeated gets my respect. It isn’t easy to play seven, nine or 10 bad teams without stumbling once.

So the D3football.com poll doesn’t respect the strength of the HCAC, as evidenced by unranked Mt. St. Joseph. Fine, but the AFCA poll does, ranking the Lions 14th. What’s funny is, only one ranking really matters at this point, and that’s the NCAA’s regional rankings, which puts the Lions sixth in the North Region, behind Albion and ahead of Ohio Northern.

Hobart, No. 22 in the AFCA and unranked in our poll, could make a similar argument since the NCAA has them fourth in the East. Then again, there are teams ranked eighth, ninth or not at all in the NCAA regional ratings that would crush some of the high-rated teams in the NCAA polls.

So let’s remember, a Top 25 acknowledges the best two-dozen or so teams while the playoff brackets may not. The NCAA regional rankings are better for projecting where the committee might seed a team in a playoff bracket.

As for the NCAA ignoring out-of-region losses, we think it’s dumb, though the folks at Willamette might find it nice to hear this year. If the basic logic is to avoid long road trips which cause student-athletes to miss class, someone might want to remind the decision-makers that that’s fine for baseball and basketball, but football games are on Saturdays. Even though teams sometimes have to travel on Fridays, there aren’t a whole lot of students, bookworms included, who spend Friday nights and Saturdays doing schoolwork.

It’s so easy to sit here and preach when Around the Nation doesn’t worry about travel budgets or across-the-board NCAA policy. But hey, we can do that.

Games to watch
We’ll give you more than our normal five, as our games this week are all focused on sorting out playoff pictures:

No. 21 Willamette at No. 2 Linfield: Win or lose, we think both of these teams make the playoffs in Pool B. At 5-0 against Division III opponents from the West Region, the Bearcats’ prospects are looking as good as the those of the Wildcats. Either team could nail down the Northwest Conference title on Saturday, but a Willamette win would likely give Concordia-Moorhead the West bracket top seed and bye. That would mean one NWC team would take on the SCIAC champ Occidental, and the loser of this game might find itself taking a very long road trip.

No. 17 UW-La Crosse at No. 13 UW-Whitewater: There are three teams, each with two conference losses, alive in the WIAC title chase, and this game has everything to do with who might take the league’s lone playoff bid. La Crosse is in with a win. Whitewater needs a win and a Stevens Point loss to get in. If the No. 20 Pointers can beat 2-7 UW-River Falls, they’d tie with Whitewater, who they beat 15-12 on Oct. 30.

No. 14 Wheaton at No. 22 Augustana: Along with No. 18 Carthage, there are three teams with a chance at one of two playoff spots in the CCIW. The Redmen need to beat Elmhurst at home, while the Thunder-Vikings loser is out of the postseason picture if Carthage does so. Augustana wins the conference with a win, while Wheaton can win and finish behind Carthage. The Thunder could also take the CCIW title with a win and a Carthage loss. A 9-1 Wheaton team would be a strong Pool C playoff candidate.

Texas Lutheran at No. 3 Hardin-Simmons: Forget the ASC’s old tiebreaker (margin of victory between the three tied teams), which put East Texas Baptist into last year’s playoffs by a single point last season. It doesn’t matter that HSU beat UMHB 49-22, while the Crusaders beat Texas Lutheran 36-27, which would have given the Cowboys points to play with this week. Instead, in case of a loss, the ASC commissioner would draw a name out of a hat. That’s got to be the only thing worse than a point-based tiebreaker. Good luck explaining a bad draw from a hat to your grandkids.

No. 6 Wooster at Ohio Wesleyan: We talk of the Scots as though they are in the playoffs, but the Battling Bishops are the poster children for the hope an automatic qualifier brings. After an 0-4 start, Ohio Wesleyan can make the playoffs much like the NCAC’s Allegheny did last season after starting 0-3.

No. 12 St. John Fisher at Alfred: The Cardinals need to beat the 7-2 Saxons to wrap up a playoff spot, while No. 19 Ithaca is waiting if they stumble. Alfred, a 24-0 loser to the Bombers, can’t get into the playoffs but is one of 2004’s biggest surprises. Ithaca’s rivalry game with Cortland State doesn’t have an impact on their playoff chances, except to say that a victory coupled with a St. John Fisher victory would throw the Bombers in the Pool C bin with Christopher Newport, Ohio Northern, UW-Whitewater and St. Thomas, all of whom could lose.

McDaniel at Johns Hopkins: We don’t usually root for teams, but if it saves us from having to figure out a five-way tie … uh, go Green Terror! Oh, you say there’s a press release on the site that explains everything? Oh, well then we take it back. The Blue Jays could actually receive the bid in several scenarios, while Muhlenberg has a slim chance based on several results.

Coe at Buena Vista: These are two of three IIAC teams who enter the weekend at 5-2 in conference play. The winner may find itself tied with Wartburg, a virtual shoo-in for a W over 2-7 Dubuque. Coe lost 34-27 at Wartburg on Oct. 16, while the Knights lost 17-14 at Buena Vista. So Coe is the odd team out, unless the Spartans beat Wartburg, who will be rooting for the Kohawks.

Methodist at Shenandoah: The Hornets hold an edge over No. 23 Christopher Newport based on a 14-10 Oct. 2 win, while the Monarchs can win the conference with a victory and a CNU loss to Ferrum. The Captains are in the playoffs via Pool A with a win and a Methodist victory, and you can bet teams on the Pool C bubble are hoping CNU is out of their hair.

Curry vs. Fitchburg State at Worcester State: The NEFC title game winner may not be better than Trinity (Conn.), Williams or Springfield, but it will be the only New England team going to the playoffs this season. Say, you don’t think Curt Schilling can take snaps, do you?

Hope at Alma: Both have lost to Albion in the past two weeks, but either could become MIAA champ if Olivet pulls the upset.

Who are those guys?
Aurora plays I-AA non-scholarship Valparaiso and Wesley hosts NAIA Southern Virginia.

Road trip of the week
That would be me this week, as my day job takes me to a journalism seminar in Pomona, Calif. So since I’ll be in SCIAC country on Saturday, I plan on checking out a 1 p.m. game and then the Occidental vs. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps tussle at 7 p.m.

I’ll be around all week, so if anyone out there has any suggestions on things to do or see, I’m all ears.