By Keith McMillan
D3sports.com
Playoff speculating just got a lot more fun. And complicated.
The NCAA selection committee has begun releasing a regional poll, this week’s being the second since the 28-team playoff format was adopted before the 1999 season.
Available on D3football.com now is the strength of schedule index, which weights each team’s wins and losses against the record of the teams they’ve played, and whether the game was at home or on the road or netural. Also available on the site’s Notables page is the Pool B power ratings. And Around the Nation has been keeping an eye on Pool C candidates for the past few weeks now.
All of this gives those of us enthralled by sorting out which 27 teams get to join Mount Union in the championship field plenty to work with. Which on the surface is a good thing, but it also opens the door for the desperate fan to try to rationalize his team into the field. We feel your pain, but here’s a good rule to start with: any team with two Division III losses is not going to get an at-large bid.
So anyway, it’s all here on the site, everything armchair committee members need to start assembling their own playoff fields. Sure, there are minor details left to take care of — the games — but Around the Nation will keep you posted this week with two items featured below. First, we’ll look at which conferences are more or less wrapped up and which have showdowns left. Then, using all of this new information, we’ll update the Pool C rankings, to see which teams in AQ conferences have the best chance at earning the three spots. (Too few, I agree).
Before you go on, if you don’t know how the playoffs work at all, here’s a reminder, courtesy of the site’s FAQ page: “Twenty-eight teams are selected. Nineteen conference champions earn automatic bids (also known as AQs, from Pool A). Three more teams from these conferences will get at-large bids, known as Pool C bids. Six teams who are independents, or members of conferences that do not get automatic bids will receive Pool B bids.”
Who’s got battles left?
By this point in the season, many conferences have a front-runner that has defeated its toughest competition and should wrap up the title unless there’s a major upset. Other conferences, of course, are nowhere near being decided, or have at least one key game left to decide a champion. Let’s take a quick look at the nation’s 27 conferences to see which are pretty much wrapped up, and which have key games remaining. Automatic qualifier conferences marked with a *:
Clinched
Empire 8 (Ithaca)
In the bag, barring upset:
*FFC (Springfield)
*IBC (Concordia, Wis.)
*IIAC (Wartburg)
* Midwest (St. Norbert)
NESCAC (Trinity, Conn.)
NEFC Boyd (Curry)
NEFC Bogan (Westfield State)
*OAC (Mount Union)
*ODAC (Bridgewater)
*SCAC (Trinity, Texas)
*USAC (Christopher Newport)
Conferences with key games remaining:
ACFC — Nov. 15 Frostburg State at Salisbury
*ASC — Nov. 1, Hardin-Simmons at Mary Hardin-Baylor; Nov. 8 East Texas Baptist at Mary Hardin-Baylor
*Centennial — Nov. 1 Gettysburg at Muhlenberg; Nov. 15 Johns Hopkins at McDaniel
*CCIW — Nov. 15 Wheaton at Augustana
*HCAC — Nov. 8 Mt. St. Joseph at Hanover
*MIAA — Nov. 1 Albion at Adrian; Nov. 15 Hope at Albion
*MAC — Nov. 8 Delaware Valley at Wilkes; Nov. 15 King’s at Wilkes
*MIAC — Nov. 8 Bethel at St. John’s
NJAC — Nov. 1 Montclair State at TCNJ; Nov. 15 Montclair State at Rowan
*NCAC — Nov. 1 Wittenberg at Allegheny, Wabash at Wooster; Nov. 15 Wooster at Wittenberg
PAC — Nov. 15 Westminster (Pa.) at Waynesburg
*SCIAC — Nov. 1 Pomona-Pitzer at Redlands; Nov. 8 Pomona-Pitzer at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps; Nov. 15 Redlands at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
UAA — Nov. 8 Washington at Carnegie Mellon
UCAA — Nov. 15 Hobart at RPI
*WIAC — Nov. 15 UW-Whitewater at UW-La Crosse
Of course, in the MAC, NCAC and WIAC, every game is key from here on out, and many of the contenders have already met. Wartburg could easily be beaten by Coe, which would let Simpson back into the IIAC race. North Central is mathematically a factor in the CCIW, but I’d be surprised if they hang around much longer. Same with Christopher Newport, which hasn’t technically eliminated all of its USAC competition.
Trinity (Conn.) could falter against Amherst and rival Wesleyan, each 4-2, but even in that scenario they’d be among whichever NESCAC two-loss teams (there are five now) finish that way. In the NEFC, Curry and Westfield State, who have already clinched the conference’s division titles are scheduled to play Nov. 8. They’ll meet again on Nov. 15 with the AQ on the line in the NEFC title game.
Who knows what they’ll do in the SCIAC, as Claremont-Mudd-Scripps has a rescheduled game with Occidental on Nov. 22. But that’s the least of the worries right now in California. This Saturday’s games could just as well be in jeopardy due to the wildfires.
Pool C watch
We’ve detailed who is in the automatic qualifier hunt in each conference, and the Pool B rankings have been released. Don’t see your team getting in in Pools A or B, but wondering if they still have a chance. They might. A seventh, eighth and ninth Pool B team could at least theoretically make it in Pool C, which is no longer limited to AQ conference runners-up. Taking strength of schedule among other things into account, here are our best guesses for Pool C, ranked top to bottom, with SOS index:
Wheaton (4-0 CCIW, 7-0): The Thunder holds insurance for loss to Augustana (or possibly North Central), which would bump everyone else down the list. Ranked second by committee in North Region. SOS index: 3.
1. Baldwin-Wallace (5-1 OAC, 6-1): Ranked third in the North Region, the Yellow Jackets have little chance of overtaking Mount Union, but they can nearly seal a playoff spot with a win over Capital. SOS index: Tied for 16th of 227.
2. Bethel (6-0 MIAC, 8-0): The Royals are still a Pool A factor, since their showdown with St. John’s still looms. Fifth in the regional poll, non-conference wins over UW-Eaw Claire and Whitworth. SOS index: 14.
3. St. John’s (6-0 MIAC, 7-0): The Johnnies are the MIAC favorite, but a loss to Bethel could thrust them into the Pool C picture. They are the top ranked team in the west, according to the committee’s regional poll. SOS index: T-16.
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-0 ASC, 7-0): If Crusaders surrender Pool A bid to Hardin-Simmons on Saturday, their case is bolstered by non-conference win over Willamette and good SOS. UMHB also has East Texas Baptist left on the schedule. SOS index: T-34
5. Capital (5-1 OAC, 6-1) winner: The Crusaders need to beat Baldwin-Wallace not only to strengthen their case, but to have a shot. A second loss would finish them. Ranked fourth in the North Region. Non-conference slate puts them behind other Pool C leaders. SOS index: 56
6. UW-La Crosse (2-1, 5-1): Still trailing UW-Whitewater, the Eagles only loss is by three UW-Eau Claire. Their SOS is far behind the Warhawks’ (38). This spot could be considered second, as three of the team ahead can seal AQs, while one OAC will drop from the picture this week. SOS index: T-60
7. Simpson (5-1 IIAC, 6-1): Ranked eighth in West Region poll. A win over Loras this week could lead to 9-1 finish with loss only to Wartburg. The Storm needs two Knights losses to jump into Pool A. SOS index: 21.
8. Johns Hopkins (3-1 Centennial, 7-1): Had destiny in own hands before loss to Muhlenberg. While they lack a signature win, their SOS keeps them in the hunt. Like team near them, Hampden-Sydney, both beat Gettysburg. SOS index: 24.
9. Hampden-Sydney (3-1 ODAC, 5-1): SOS is good, but we keep saying the team it lost to, ODAC leader Bridgewater, has a loss to Christopher Newport. That can’t help. Tigers are ranked seventh in the south. Only advantage Tigers have on Blue Jays is being ranked one spot ahead (seventh) in committee’s South Region rankings. SOS index: T-30
10. Hardin-Simmons (6-0 ASC, 6-1): Overtime win against East Texas Baptist was good step towards AQ, the Cowboys’ best hope for playoffs. Loss to UW-Stout doesn’t hurt SOS since it was out of region, but puts them behind other Pool C teams that would have one loss, not two, if it doesn’t win its conference. SOS index: 15.
11. East Texas Baptist (5-1 ASC, 5-2): The opening-day, out-of-division loss is nearly irrelevant, but loss to Hardin-Simmons is very relevant. An ASC three-way tie is not impossible. Tigers need to beat Mary Hardin-Baylor on Nov. 8. SOS index: 40
12. Western Connecticut (3-1 FFC, 5-2): Finishing 8-2 with losses only to Springfield and Rowan would seem to present a good Pool C case, but SOS is poor and there are going to be too many good one-loss teams this year. SOS index: 77.
Dropped out of the picture with a loss last week: Millikin, Loras, Concordia-Moorhead, Kings Point.
Dual effort
Chapman’s Michael Carter logged about 100 plays in the Panthers’ 45-28 win over Whittier. He rushed for 223 yards and three touchdowns, plus, while playing defensive line, notched six total tackles, three for loss and two sacks.
The hardest points to score …
It’s odd enough that Freedom Football Conference member Plymouth State has been shut out in five consecutive games and in six of seven outings this season.
But, as coincidence would have it, Plymouth State is also the Division III record holder for most consecutive times shutting an opponent out, with six in the early 1980s.
The Panthers’ only touchdown this season came on a 34-yard Mike Griggs to Harold Roy touchdown pass. The score came on the first play of the second quarter of a 26-7 Sept. 20 loss to William Paterson.
Stat of the week
There were easy ones to pluck from the 66-63 Coe-Cornell game, but you should have read about that by now. Here’s a notable worth acknowledging.
UW-Platteville quarterback Tom Stetzer entered Saturday’s game against UW-La Crosse needing 92 yards of total offense to surpass 10,000 in his career. Stetzer’s 35-yard TD pass to Max Seroogy moved him into 10th place in Division III history with 9,979 yards, but received a concussion on that play still needs to play again this season to break 10 grand. Stetzer is a senior.
High point
Jim Strick at UW-Stevens Point figured his school had been involved in quite a few big games this season. Through this weekend, 14 games this season will have pitted teams each ranked in the D3football.com poll. After this week’s game with Whitewater, the Pointers will have played in five of those games.
Week 1: No. 21 UW-Stevens Point vs. No. 24 Augustana, No. 15 UW-La Crosse vs. No. 5 Howard Payne
Week 2: No. 12 UW-Stout vs. No. 15 Hardin-Simmons
Week 3: No. 1 Mount Union vs. No. 3 Baldwin-Wallace
Week 4: None
Week 5: No. 3 UW-La Crosse vs. No. 8 UW-Stevens Point, No. 10 Baldwin-Wallace vs. No. 18 John Carroll, No. 12 Hampden-Sydney vs. No. 17 Bridgewater, No. 14 Ithaca vs. No. 21 Springfield
Week 6: No. 9 UW-Stevens Point vs. No. 25 UW-Stout
Week 7: No. 23 UW-Stevens Point vs. No. 23 UW-Eau Claire
Week 8: No. 1 Mount Union vs. No. 18 Capital
Week 9: No. 4 Mary-Hardin-Baylor vs. No. 15 Hardin-Simmons, No. 7 Baldwin-Wallace vs. No. 19 Capital, No. 13 UW-Whitewater vs. No. 22 UW-Stevens Point
National game of the week
No. 4 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 15 Hardin-Simmons: This game has American Southwest Conference title implications, as well as Pool C implications. The Cowboys, who lost their opener at UW-Stout, can’t afford to lose again, while the Crusaders are unbeaten but on the road. Hardin-Simmons, pushing for their ninth ASC title in 11 seasons, had won the first four in the series against UMHB before the Crusaders won 35-16 last year and went into the playoffs at 10-0.
Also keep an eye on: No. 2 St. John’s at St. Thomas (rivalry game), No. 5 Wheaton at North Central, Coe at No. 6 Wartburg, No. 7 Baldwin-Wallace at No. 19 Capital, No. 22 UW-Stevens Point at No. 13 UW-Whitewater, Montclair State at No. 16 TCNJ, Wittenberg at Allegheny, Wabash at Wooster, Simpson at Loras, PLU at Willamette, Pomona-Pitzer at Redlands, Gettysburg at Muhlenberg, Albion at Adrian, Salisbury at Wesley, Anderson at Mt. St. Joseph, Hanover at Washington & Jefferson, RPI at St. John Fisher, Hartwick at Union, Augustana at Elmhurst.
Hindsight game of the week
Week 8 featured four overtime games and another 23 games decided by one score or less. Six were by a field goal or less. Though honorable mention must go to Hardin-Simmons 20-14 overtime win against East Texas Baptist, Augustana eliminated Millikin from Pool C contention with a dramatic two-point win, keeping its own CCIW title hopes alive.
The Big Blue rallied from a 21-6 fourth quarter deficit to take a 22-21 lead on the Vikings with 43 seconds remaining. But Augustana, which got a 54-yard field goal from Mike Clark to beat Platteville in Week 3, got a 22-yarder from Clark to beat Millikin.
Your feedback
As always, Around the Nation is interested in your thoughts on certain subjects. When you write in, please include your full name, age, hometown and school you root for.
1. We’re interested to hear why life is unique in your corner of the Division III world. Take a minute and share what’s great about your campus, your state, your team and the people you know.
2. ATN will always take your fondest memories of longtime St. John’s coach John Gagliardi.
3. ATN is still looking for the most unique player names in Division III.
4. ATN wants to know what you think the spirit of Division III is, and what it should be.
5. ATN will consider your story ideas, so long as they are not simply "feature my alma mater/friend/son/self," and will also answer your specific questions in future columns. Do you want to know why Division III teams don’t have spring practice? Ask Around the Nation.
