/columns/around-the-nation/2001/midseason-look-at-the-races

A midseason look at the races

If Division III football got national TV coverage, I’m sure there would be an announcer out there willing to call the WIAC the Wacky Intercollegiate Athletic Conference. (It’s Wisconsin, by the way). Or maybe one would say WI-AC is short for Wild Athletic Conference.

And while that announcer would be considered corny, he or she wouldn’t be far off the mark.

What better place to start our look at the second half of the season, where conference races heat up and playoff hopes start falling by the wayside. Sure, coaches hate these projections, but the rest of us can’t get enough. We’ll look at the front runners and key games ahead in deciding the 18 automatic qualifier conferences, which account for 21 playoff bids (Pools A and C). I’ll make picks for conference champions, and for those of you who plan to get ticked off if I don’t pick your squad, I’ll let you know in advance. My e-mail address is above at right.

Next week we’ll see what it will take to earn one of the seven Pool B bids for independents and teams in conferences without AQs.

Let’s go Around the Nation, starting in Wisconsin:

Correctly handicapping the winner of this race is like having picked the Rams to win the Super Bowl a few years ago. It’s the most competitive conference in the nation, and seven teams have one conference loss or less. Five have winning records.

Stout went from last to first in 2000, so how can we count any team out? Only River Falls is unbeaten after two weeks of conference play, and only La Crosse is winless. Chances are a team with a conference loss could take home the title.

"I believe that a team with one loss can win it this year," said Blue Devils’ coach Ed Meierkort. "But this could be a year where we have a champion with two [conference] losses."

When Meierkort came into the league, it wasn’t as wide open as it is today. He recalls a time when only four teams — La Crosse, River Falls, Whitewater and Stevens Point even had a chance.

Two things have evened the scales, he said.

The other four schools dedicated themselves to improving their programs, and hired coaches with the will and energy to do it.

WIAC teams also cap rosters at 100, which has nearly the same effect as Division I-A’s 85-scholarship limit. Teams can’t stockpile talent. Recruiting became more aggressive, and as a result, the league evened out.

The effect of parity has its pros and cons. It has enhanced the natural rivalries between state schools, many of whom draw players from high schools with similar rivalries. It has also made the conference, traditionally one of the nation’s strongest, improve top to bottom. The non-conference results speak for themselves.

"It’s a catch-22," warns Meierkort. "I think [playing in such a competitive conference] makes you mentally strong, but it takes its toll physically. A lot of teams at the end of the season are a shadow of what they were because of injuries."

"I don’t think any team can red-letter a game and say ‘if we win this, we win the conference,’ " Meierkort adds. "In our league, it’s just a weekly grind."

The next few weeks will clear the picture.

River Falls is in the driver’s seat after its three-point win against Whitewater and its double-overtime win against Eau Claire, but it won’t be easy to run the table. They visit Stout and Stevens Point on the next two Saturdays.

Stevens Point lost by a point to Whitewater, but still has River Falls, Stout and Eau Claire at home.

Oshkosh’s win over then-No. 8 Stout could push them through the rest of their schedule.

Stout has the big-game experience after appearing in last year’s playoffs.
But who can pick a winner really? We’re just two weeks into conference play. Every team still has a chance.

"You’re never out of it," says Meierkort. "But you’re never in it either."

A look at the other conferences:

AMERICAN SOUTHWEST
Outlook: This is already a three-horse race, with Howard Payne, Mary Hardin-Baylor and Hardin-Simmons the contenders. All three are unbeaten in ASC play so far. The Cowboys host both teams, and have blown through opponents since a season-opening loss to Menlo. The Yellow Jackets can make a big statement this weekend. The Crusaders’ program is just four years old, but the squad went 9-1 in 2000. Their Nov. 3 game against the Cowboys should decide the champion. There is a serious opportunity for a Pool C bid here.
Key games: Howard Payne at Hardin-Simmons Oct. 13, Mary Hardin-Baylor at Howard Payne, Oct. 20, Mary Hardin-Baylor at Hardin-Simmons Nov. 3.
Favorite: Hardin-Simmons
Dark horses: Mary Hardin-Baylor, Howard Payne
My pick: Hardin-Simmons. Hard to go against the three-time defending champions.

CENTENNIAL
Outlook: Western Maryland, as usual, has all but wrapped up its fifth consecutive CC title and accompanying playoff bid with wins against Ursinus and Muhlenberg. By beating the Mules in OT, the Green Terror eliminated its toughest competition. The Mules would need two WM losses to pass them in the CC standings, and the Green Terror doesn’t have two games it will lose on its schedule. Only Johns Hopkins, far from overwhelming in its conference wins so far, has a chance to win the title by beating WM. But first the Blue Jays must get past Muhlenberg.
Key games: Johns Hopkins at Muhlenberg Oct. 13, Johns Hopkins at Western Maryland, Nov. 10 
Favorite: Western Maryland
Dark horse: Johns Hopkins
My pick: Western Maryland

DIXIE
Outlook: Although nobody is mathematically out of the picture, it’s fair to say Ferrum and Methodist are the leading candidates for the inaugural Dixie football title. The Panthers are unbeaten since consecutive losses to Wesley and Emory & Henry, but they haven’t been convincing. Methodist hasn’t played the toughest schedule either, and they lost to 1-5 Guilford. Rapidly improving first-year program Christopher Newport stunned Greensboro 35-10 last week, and they have just a single conference loss with both Ferrum and Methodist left on the schedule. Second-year program Shenandoah is no pushover, but Ferrum walloped them 35-7.
Key games: Methodist at Ferrum, Oct. 13
Favorite: Ferrum
Dark horses: Christopher Newport, Methodist
My pick: Ferrum

FREEDOM
Outlook: With wins against Springfield and Plymouth State in their wake, Western Connecticut would need a serious slip-up not to win the conference. Pool C hope is bleak for the other contenders.
Key games: Springfield at Plymouth State, Oct. 13
Favorite: Western Connecticut
Dark horses: none
My pick: Western Connecticut

HEARTLAND
Outlook: Only Defiance and Anderson have winning records, in-conference or overall. Defiance’s 33-13 win against 2000 co-champ Hanover made a big statement while Bluffton, the other co-champ, is just 2-3 with a 27-9 loss to Anderson to its credit. Nobody’s been eliminated from the race quite yet, and this might be another year where the champion (or co-champions) have a conference loss.
Key games: Hanover at Anderson Oct. 27, Anderson at Defiance Nov. 3
Favorite: Hanover
Dark horses: Hanover, Anderson. Bluffton is a spoiler.
My pick: Defiance

ILLINI-BADGER 
Outlook: Concordia (Wis.), MacMurray and Aurora are unbeaten in conference games and in the hunt. It’s hard to judge any of these three teams’ strength: They’ve all beaten up on weaker opponents and lost big non-conference matchups. All average more than 400 yards of offense per game, but Aurora has been to the playoffs before and has the most complete defensive unit. MacMurray used to play spoiler to Westminster (Mo.) in their good years.
Key games: MacMurray at Aurora Oct. 20, Concordia (Wis.) at MacMurray Oct. 27, Aurora at Concordia (Wis.) Nov. 3
Favorite: Aurora
Dark horse: MacMurray
My pick: Aurora

IOWA
Outlook: Very interesting. After Cornell beat Wartburg and Buena Vista, the November clash with Central looms large. The two are on a crash course, but Central gets Wartburg and Buena Vista in the two weeks prior to its meeting with the Rams. Cornell then hosts the showdown.
Key games: Central at Wartburg Oct. 20, Buena Vista at Central Oct. 27, Central at Cornell Nov. 3, Buena Vista at Wartburg Nov. 10
Favorite: Central
Dark horses: Wartburg, Buena Vista
My pick: Cornell

MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Outlook: There are plenty of solid teams in the MAC, which combined its two divisions to one 11-team unit in the offseason. After Widener disposed of perennial power Lycoming 35-0, there’s no reason to go against them. The high-powered Pioneers are playing good defense, and that’s cause for worry.
Key games: none
Favorite: Widener
Dark horses: Albright, Lyco, Wilkes and King’s all play each other enough to think that one could play spoiler, but none could overtake Widener.
My pick: Widener

MIDWEST 
Outlook: St. Norbert’s 20-14 win against Ripon was a big boost for the Green Knights’ title hopes. Monmouth is a title contender only if they post back-to-back wins over St. Norbert and Ripon on the next two Saturdays. That leaves Grinnell, who has all three of the aforementioned teams left on the schedule. The Green Knights have won 21 in a row in the MWC, and there’s no reason to think they’ll stop now.
Key games: Monmouth at St. Norbert, Oct. 13, St. Norbert at Grinnell Oct. 20.
Favorite: St. Norbert
Dark horses: Monmouth, Grinnell, Ripon
My pick: St. Norbert

MINNESOTA
Outlook: Bethel is looking sharp, especially with Gustavus Adolphus in its rear-view mirror. Even if the Royals win, there are serious Pool C contenders in the MIAC. Road games at St. Thomas and St. John’s loom on the Royals’ schedule as well.
Key games: Gustavus Adolphus at St. John’s Oct. 13, Bethel at St. John’s Oct 27, Bethel at St. Thomas Nov. 10
Favorite: Bethel
Dark horses: The Johnnies look good after a 27-21 win over St. Thomas, and its hard to count a John Gagliardi-coached team out. The Tommies have that loss as their only blemish.
My pick: Bethel

NEW ENGLAND
Outlook: The 13-team NEFC has a two-division format where division champions meet in a title game on November 10. The automatic qualifier is on the line. As of now, several teams still have a shot at a Pool A or C playoff bid.
Bogan leader Worcester State (6-0) should coast through the rest of its schedule leading up to a season-ending battle with Westfield. The Owls, like the Lancers, have breezed through their schedule, but face a tough test this week at 2000 champion Bridgewater State.
In the Boyd, Nichols is 3-0 and has handed Curry and Mass-Dartmouth its conference losses. Salve Regina has the toughest part of its schedule ahead, and was pounded by Worcester State last week.
The three strongest teams are in the Bogan. Its winner should get the AQ.
Key games: Worcester State at Westfield, Nov. 3, Salve Regina at Nichols, Nov. 3, NEFC title game Nov. 10
Favorite: Worcester State
Dark horse: Westfield 
My pick: Worcester State

NEW JERSEY
Outlook: What else is new? The season-ending Rowan and Montclair State game should decide the conference title and AQ. The loser, if it enters the game unbeaten, has a shot at Pool C.
Key games: Montclair State at TCNJ Oct. 27, Montclair State at Rowan, Nov. 10.
Favorite: Rowan
Dark horses: TCNJ could ruin it for Montclair State. Rowan beat the Lions 28-27.
My pick: The Profs look nearly unbeatable.

NORTH COAST
Outlook: Wittenberg has dominated this conference over the past two seasons, and has dispatched top-half teams in Allegheny and Wabash in recent weeks. Nobody has a fighting chance in this conference unless Ohio Wesleyan knocks off the Tigers.
Key games: Ohio Wesleyan at Wittenberg Oct. 20
Favorite: Wittenberg
Dark horses: Allegheny, Wabash and Ohio Wesleyan could all be trouble. But mostly for each other.
My pick: Wittenberg

OHIO
Outlook: Mount Union more or less clinched a title with a win over John Carroll. There are other teams in the hunt, but it would take a Purple Raider loss for any to have a chance. They’ve won 62 in a row in the OAC. The runner-up is always a Pool C contender, and John Carroll might have a great case this season if it can get through the conference slate unscathed. Its loss to Mount Union came by three points. And Capital could still win the automatic bid, at least mathematically, by beating Mount Union and running the table.
Key games: Ohio Northern at John Carroll and Capital at Mount Union Oct. 20, John Carroll at Capital Oct. 27, Capital at Ohio Northern Nov. 3.
Favorite: Mount Union
Dark horses: Capital, John Carroll, Ohio Northern. Wilmington and Baldwin-Wallace could be spoilers.
My pick: Mount Union. Duh.

OLD DOMINION
Outlook: It’s Bridgewater’s conference to lose. The Eagles survived a 48-42 shootout with Hampden-Sydney and must get past nemesis Emory & Henry (a 2000 playoff participant) to take the AQ. Since last year’s postseason victory over Washington & Jefferson, the Eagles have been hitting on all cylinders. The once-dominant Wasps look to have slipped a bit. The winner of this weekend’s E&H-R-MC game will be the team with a chance to knock off Bridgewater and finish the ODAC slate unbeaten.
Key games: Emory & Henry at Bridgewater Oct. 20, R-MC at Bridgewater Nov. 3.
Favorite: Bridgewater
Dark horses: Randolph-Macon is 4-1 and has a knack for the dramatic, but the Yellow Jackets lost its only game against a quality opponent 40-0. Catholic and Hampden-Sydney could play spoiler.
My pick: Bridgewater

SOUTHERN COLLEGIATE
Outlook: SCAC teams make runs at Trinity each year, but the Tigers always seem to end up in the playoffs. Pardon me if I don’t give Centre’s 5-0 record the respect it possibly deserves. If they are 7-0 on October 20, then we’ll talk.
Key games: Centre at Trinity (Tex.) Oct. 20
Favorite: Trinity
Dark horses: Centre. Millsaps or Sewanee could make it tough on the Tigers in November 
My pick: Trinity

CCIW
Outlook: Either Milikin or Augustana will take the lead on Oct. 20, and then it becomes that team’s conference to lose. A slip-up by either unbeaten cracks the race wide open again. Carthage, IWU and Wheaton are in the race, but with a conference loss each already (Carthage and Wheaton to Millikin, IWU to Augustana), all three need that slip-up.
Key games: Millikin at Augstana Oct. 20
Favorite: Millikin
Dark horses: Carthage, IWU, Wheaton
My pick: With three consecutive wins over Augustana, Millikin is the safe bet.

Games to watch
No. 1 Mount Union at Wilmington
The Purple Raiders are running out of tough opponents. The Quakers are running out of time.

Bethany (W.Va.) at No. 4 Washington & Jefferson 
A battle of two 5-0 PAC teams with pool B playoff implications.

Union at RPI
Two unbeaten Upstate New York teams face off, with "The Shoes" on the line.

No. 17 Howard Payne at No. 13 Hardin-Simmons 
One ASC contender emerges, the other takes a serious step back.

Washington (Mo.) at No. 21 Carnegie Mellon 
Carnegie Mellon is 4-0 heading into its clash with the UAA rival Bears.

Whitworth at Willamette 
The Bearcats will help determine if the 3-0 Pirates are for real.

Keep an eye on: Johns Hopkins at Muhlenberg, Emory & Henry at Randolph-Macon, Kalamazoo at Hope, St. Olaf at St. Thomas, Trinity (Conn.) at Tufts, Gustavus Adolphus at St. John’s, Mississippi at No. 15 Mary Hardin-Baylor, Westfield State at Bridgewater (Mass.) State, Alma at Albion, No. 20 UW-Stout at No. 24 UW-Eau Claire, UW-Oshkosh at UW-La Crosse, UW-River Falls at UW-Stevens Point, UW-Platteville at No. 23 UW-Whitewater.

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Greg Thomas

Greg Thomas graduated in 2000 from Wabash College. He has contributed to D3football.com since 2014 as a bracketologist, Kickoff writer, curator of Quick Hits, and Around The Nation Podcast guest host before taking co-host duties over in 2021. Greg lives in Claremont, California.

Previous columnists: 2016-2019: Adam Turer.
2014-2015: Ryan Tipps.
2001-2013: Keith McMillan.

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