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| What will it take for Wheaton to get into the top four? Probably someone moving out of the way. Photo by Matt McClure, d3photography.com |
By Adam Turer
D3sports.com
It’s Week 8, and you’d think we would have some clarity by now.
Through a combination of upsets and unexpected starts, we still have a lot of questions about the 2019 D-III football season.
The most common questions we hear each week, more and more as the season goes on, fall into two categories, one more important than the other:
Why isn’t my team ranked/ranked higher?
What are my team’s chances of making the playoffs?
Although many of you #d3fb followers would probably agree that the latter is the question that matters more, we certainly hear much more of the former question during the season.
Here’s a dirty little secret, or at least one man’s humble opinion: the Top 25 poll doesn’t matter.
Yes, I’m a voter, and I take my vote each week seriously. But the beauty of Division III football is that by the third Friday in December, the poll sorts itself out. The 32-team playoff format is flawed, but it never results in questions at the top of the poll. The top spot is decided on the field, through five rounds of postseason victories.
First, your questions:
What will it take for Wheaton to jump into the top four? — Logan McRae
Thank you for the question, Logan. The obvious answer here is a loss by one of the three teams ranked ahead of them.
It’s a fair question, though. The Thunder has arguably the season’s best win. That is reflected by the pollsters, who have North Central the highest-ranked one-loss team. That loss was a convincing two-touchdown Wheaton victory.
St. John’s, ranked third, has quality wins over both Bethel and St. Thomas. Mount Union’s best win is over now-No. 11 John Carroll, while Mary Hardin-Baylor gets its first real opportunity for a quality win this week against Hardin-Simmons.
Every voter is different. My weekly poll is very much what-have-you-done-for-me-lately. After the win over the Cardinals, I slotted the Thunder at No. 3. Then, UW-Whitewater, my former No. 3, posted a quality win over UW-Platteville. I rewarded the Warhawks with the third spot in that poll. After two straight quality victories, I bumped St. John’s up. So, Wheaton has held the No. 3, 4, and 5 spots in my poll the past three weeks.
After the Thunder’s total annihilation of a good Washington U. team, I will hold myself accountable for moving them down unfairly. The point is, those three teams just behind the top two spots could be ranked in any order and it would be hard to argue. The WIAC and MIAC are tougher conferences than the CCIW, especially with Illinois Wesleyan having a down year by recent standards.
If they win out, the Thunder’s floor is No. 5 in the poll. But the wonderful thing about D-III is that the ceiling is always going to be No. 1, because that will be decided on the field in December.
If both teams are undefeated, will Cortaca decide a number 1 seed in the east? Or do you see one of the others jumping to the east? — Dan Ruffrage
First, a reminder that there are no published playoff seeds, and there are certainly not playoff seeding regions. Thankfully, D3football.com has a playoff FAQ page for all the refreshing you need between now and November 17.
The top four teams could be Mary Hardin-Baylor, Mount Union, St. John’s, and Wheaton. No teams from the East there.
If you’re asking who you expect to be the top-ranked team from the East at the end of the regular season, that’s a good question.
Ithaca is currently the highest-ranked team from the East region, two spots ahead of No. 10 Salisbury. The Sea Gulls’ schedule was front-loaded. Their final four opponents have a combined record of 7-17. But Salisbury has quality wins over 5-1 UW-Oshkosh and 5-1 Wesley.
This is where we get into the fun transitive victory portion of our explainer. The Sea Gulls’ fate is ultimately tied to the Titans. But UW-Oshkosh still has to face UW-Platteville and UW-Whitewater in the second half of the WIAC slate. If the Titans finish with three or more losses, Salisbury’s early season non-conference victory is not quite as impressive as it is now, in Week 8.
The Bombers can’t look ahead to Cortaca. A November 2 date with fellow Liberty League unbeaten Union looms first. The Dutchmen are now also ranked, cracking the poll this week at No. 25.
Similarly, the Red Dragons can’t look past their meeting with Brockport that same day. The Golden Eagles dropped their opener to Hobart, but appear to have found their identity as the season has progressed. The defense has been nearly impenetrable since the opener, pitching three shutouts--four if you ignore a garbage time touchdown against backups scored by Alfred State in a 55-6 Brockport romp. The Golden Eagles have yet to yield a point in October.
Based on the latest poll, if Ithaca wins out, I think they remain the top team in the East. The real question is whether or not Union or Cortland could leapfrog over Salisbury by winning out while the Sea Gulls also remain unbeaten. I don’t think a one-loss Brockport could move ahead of an undefeated Salisbury, but I do think that a Union or Cortland that finishes unbeaten with a win over Ithaca could make that leap.
Cortland, with games against both Brockport and Ithaca upcoming, has the best chance to make a claim for the beast of the East by running the table.
So, win your conference & you're in for playoffs. But, considering there are only 5 at-large bids, what are the best determining factors to get 1 of the 5? Besides, of course, win/loss record. Figure there are a lot of teams finishing 9-1 but not winning their conference. — @WardenoftheNJAC
We’ve got your primer here, plus multiple podcasts featuring playoff committee chairman and Lake Forest head coach Jim Catanzaro.
Usually, this field narrows itself through attrition during the season, leaving the usual suspects, such as the WIAC and MIAC runners-up.
This year might be the most exciting Pool C selection process in recent memory.
St. Thomas already had two losses. UW-Oshkosh lost a non-conference game. There are no unbeaten teams in the SAA, and every team but one has multiple losses. That team, Berry, no longer controls its Pool A destiny. The Centennial Conference advanced two teams to the quarterfinals last season, but one of those teams, Johns Hopkins, already has two losses. Hardin-Simmons dropped a regular season game before its contest with Mary Hardin-Baylor. Both Whitworth and Linfield dropped non-conference games to SCIAC foes. That make the NWC likely a one-bid league, leaving the SCIAC as the two-team conference out west. The PAC is usually a contender for an at-large bid, but every team other than Case Western Reserve already has two loses. Same goes for the NCAC, but every team already has at least one loss and there are several conference showdowns remaining on the schedule to dilute the pool further.
Redlands should secure a playoff spot if it can finish 9-1. If Wesley wins out to finish 9-1, the Wolverines are probably a sure bet, with a win over Delaware Valley and only a one-score loss to Salisbury. If Susquehanna wins out, the River Hawks will finish 9-1 with only an overtime loss to Muhlenberg. If Bethel can win on the road at Concordia-Moorhead and at St. Thomas, the Royals will be a 9-1 lock for a Pool C bid. As mentioned above, the "best" win of the season according to many metrics was Wheaton's victory over North Central. If that ends up as the Cardinals' lone loss, they should earn a Pool C berth.
I didn’t expect to predict the Pool C berths in this column, but I guess maybe I just did? Let’s roll the dice in October with Redlands, Bethel, Wesley, Susquehanna, and North Central.
But wait! What about the OAC? Baldwin Wallace and John Carroll could both be 8-1, with only a loss to Mount Union on their ledger, heading into their meeting in the regular season finale. That could be a play-in game to see who earns a Pool C berth. But which of the teams above should they leapfrog?
Why isn’t my undefeated team ranked? — so, so many of you.
I get it. I am a big proponent of taking care of your business on the field each week.
What more could you possibly do?
A lot of teams can make it through five games unscathed. Just being undefeated isn’t as special as you think.
I like to look at who you beat and how you beat them. One of the underrated undefeateds this season, in my opinion, is Bridgewater.
The Eagles have dominated all opponents in all three phases, earning my vote for No. 20 in the nation.
Middlebury earned my vote with a win over Wesleyan on Saturday. I rarely give votes to the NESCAC, since they have no non-conference games to serve as reference points. But the Panthers gave three different teams their only loss through the midpoint of the season. The wins would have been more impressive barring Hamilton’s stunning upset of Amherst on Saturday, but Middlebury’s record is noteworthy. I gave them my No. 24 spot this week.
Then there are teams like Olivet and Mount St. Joseph.
The Comets have handled their business, but the schedule has not been imposing. Trine is having a down year, so Saturday’s win loses its luster. This week’s showdown at Hope is the make-or-break game in the MIAA.
The Lions also suffer from a down season from one of their conference foes. Franklin, like Trine, is usually a benchmark win. But not this year, as the Grizzlies have four losses already, their most in a regular season since 2005.
The Lions have dominated all comers, but play in one of the lowest ranked conferences. Games against Rose-Hulman and Hanover in the next two weeks give Mount St. Joe opportunities to catch voters’ eyes, but that may still not be enough. I don’t think the Lions get ranked in the Top 25 until they finish a 10-0 season. That may not seem fair, but there are still plenty of voters who play the “who would win on a neutral site” game. And until Chaiten Tomlin and the Lions get to face a quality opponent in the playoffs, that question is open to interpretation.
WPI and Western Connecticut are also unbeaten and unranked. Both have prove-it games in Week 8. The Colonials travel to Framingham State, while the Engineers host Merchant Marine.
But the NEWMAC and MASCAC are not on a lot of national radars. These teams could finish 10-0 and remain outside the Top 25 in the final regular season poll. It may take a solid showing in the first round of the playoffs to secure a final Top 25 ranking.
From D3football.com features:
- Details make difference for unbeaten Olivet
- Western Connectiut excited after 6-0 start
- Bridgewater's new run means new memories
What do you know? Do you know things? Let’s find out!
Let me hear what questions remain unanswered. Tell me how wrong I am. Predict the playoff field. Thanks for reading and for following D3football.com. These next few weeks are going to be fun and exciting and, just maybe, unpredictable.
