This won't be the Mount Union team that breaks a string of over two decades of on-field excellence. These Purple Raiders are winning games by an average of 51 points -- if it is Saturday afternoon, you can be sure that they are playing well.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
We haven't seen it this season, but if D'Angelo Fulford is merely average for a game, you might see Mount Union scramble for a win later in the tournament
This season's turning point:
Dispatching then-undefeated OAC challenger Heidelberg 63-7 in Week 6. That result signaled a full rebound from 2016's ups and downs for Mount Union.
Quarterback Jake Kennedy is playing smart. He's in command of a balanced offense that can move the ball down the field in a variety of ways. The Tigers can remain conservative and methodical and don't need big plays to beat you. They just can't get greedy and turn the ball over.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They have to rely on Kennedy's arm too much. He completes just 61.1% of his passes, despite throwing for nearly 2500 yards with a 24-7 TD-to-INT ratio. The Tigers want to take an early lead and play it safe with a mix of short passes and the ground game, while the defense continues to dominate.
This season's turning point:
A 52-6 shellacking of DePauw on Oct. 21. At the time, the NCAC appeared to be a three- or four-team race. This statement win established the defending champs as the clear frontrunner, and they played up to that billing the rest of the way, defeating their other toughest challenger, Wabash, in another road game the following week.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.545 (26)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
172.8/261.8
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
98.1/205.9
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.5/4.4
How far can they go?
To the quarterfinals. Could they challenge Mount Union? Probably not quite.
They can flip the field on special teams; and Jacob Adams, who replaced Alex Rowse after Rowse was injured in overtime in Week 8 vs. Westminster, does his best impression of Rowse, or, perhaps, Pete Coughlin.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
Whoever the quarterback is can't connect with Jesse Zubik often enough to open up space for whoever the running back is on that given day.
This season's turning point:
The Presidents rally from an eight-point fourth-quarter deficit, then win in overtime when Jacob Adams completes a touchdown drive and the W&J defense stops Westminster's two-point conversion attempt.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.434 (231)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
162.5/313.5
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
128.2/170.9
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.3/4.4
How far can they go?
Having their first home playoff game since 2008 could help them get out of the first round.
The Titan defense controls the game. IWU's best wins all came in low scoring games while holding opponents to 10 points or less.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The offense is not at least protecting the ball. The Titans don't ask for much out of their offense, but short fields off of turnovers can handicap even the best defenses.
This season's turning point:
An 86-yard drive culminating in a 12-yard touchdown catch by Zach Walsh with six seconds remaining at Wheaton. The Titans aren't here without that drive and catch.
The ground game shows the prowess it exhibited in big games over the past few weeks, not just in garbage time, and the pass defense buckles down and keeps the opposing offense in check.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They aren't able to get as many takeaways and have to mount long scoring drives, and Rob Cuda looks like he did after he got knocked around a bit vs. Carnegie Mellon.
Quarterback David Tammaro doesn't have to do it all. In their four games decided by seven points or fewer, including their lone loss, the Blue Jays averaged 104.7 yards rushing; in their six convincing victories, the Blue Jays averaged 236.6 yards on the ground.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They can't finish drives. The Blue Jays nearly lost the season opener because too many long drives ended in field goals. They gained 412 yards of offense on 92 plays but mustered just 17 points in their lone loss. Three drives of ten plays or more resulted in zero points in that loss.
This season's turning point:
A 45-7 dismantling of Franklin and Marshall, which came just one week after the Blue Jays' 40-game Centennial Conference win streak was snapped by Ursinus. After the loss, the Blue Jays outscored opponents by an average of 48.2-13.2.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.541 (30)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
183.9/329.8
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
141.9/194.2
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.2/4.9
How far can they go?
Expect to see them picked as first-round winners by some people.
The defense is getting pressure up front. The Bobcats finished 16th in the nation with 34 sacks. They allowed opponents to convert just 20.2 percent of third downs, second-best in the nation. The front seven is aggressive and often delivers.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They hurt themselves with turnovers and penalties. The Bobcats average seven penalties and two turnovers per game. They can't dominate on either side of the ball when they give away yards and possessions.
This season's turning point:
A 27-24 overtime loss to Wesley on Oct. 7. That game proved, for the second consecutive season, that the Bobcats can play with anyone in the NJAC. But coming up short meant that the playoffs essentially started in Week 7 for this team. It took a three-point win over Kean in Week 10 and a double-overtime win over Salisbury in Week 11 to keep Frostburg State's playoff hopes alive.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.499 (132)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
166.8/76.1
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
255.8/157.4
Yards per play/allowed per play:
5.9/4.2
How far can they go?
They have enough defense to get them to the quarterfinals, and enough offense (not to mention enough playoff experience) to go one-and-out.
They're playing defense. The defense has improved against both the run and the pass over the course of the season. They?re still opportunistic and want to force turnovers to get the ball back in the hands of the explosive offense. But now, the Generals have figured out how to force teams to punt.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They have to pass. This team is not built to play catch-up. It's no secret that the Generals want to run all over you. They can break a big gain at any time. Forcing them to pass is every opponent's goal. The run has been hard to stop.
This season's turning point:
The final minutes of the Oct. 28 win over Randolph-Macon. The Generals offense was not clicking. W&L trailed 14-9 the entire second half. The Yellow Jackets could have continued rushing the ball in an attempt to run out the clock. Instead, Max Garrett came up with an interception, setting up a short field for the Generals. Freshman sensation Josh Breece ran for the go-ahead touchdown and another W&L interception sealed the victory.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.531 (42)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
421.5/59.3
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
118.3/264.4
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.7/5.4
How far can they go?
Nobody has won a first-round game on the road in Alliance since the playoff expansion. That isn't changing in 2017.
Mount Union Purple Raiders
Wittenberg Tigers
Washington and Jefferson Presidents
Illinois Wesleyan Titans
Case Western Reserve Spartans
Johns Hopkins Blue Jays
Frostburg State Bobcats
Washington and Lee Generals