Bethel and Chicago could both be pushed out of the 2014 Division III football playoffs. Photo by Ryan Coleman, d3photography.com

Bids clinched There are 24 automatic bids to the 2014 Division III football championships. Here are the teams that clinched bids: Adrian (MIAA) Benedictine (NACC) Chapman (SCIAC) Christopher Newport (USA South) Franklin (HCAC) Hampden-Sydney (ODAC) Hobart (Liberty League) Husson (ECFC) Ithaca (Empire 8) Johns Hopkins (Centennial) Linfield (NWC) Macalester (MWC) Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC) MIT (NEFC) Mount Union (OAC) Rowan (NJAC) St. John's (MIAC) St. Scholastica (Upper Midwest) UW-Whitewater (WIAC) Wartburg (IIAC) Washington and Jefferson (PAC) Wheaton (CCIW) Widener (MAC) Wittenberg (North Coast)

By Pat Coleman
D3sports.com

We'd like to introduce a new contributor. Greg Thomas, also known as wally_wabash on our D3boards.com message boards, has been doing his bracketology work there for several years.

We are giving his prognosications a promotion to the front page, because they're good. And this is a doozy of a year to do it.

It's a regional ranking in which the West Region ranking is almost certainly out of order and can't be easily understood. It's a year in which an unbeaten Pool B team is ranked third. Among Pool B teams. In the South Region alone.

There are eight members of the Division III football championships committee. Generally, two of them turn over in any given year, sometimes three. This year, there are four new members. Four members who have never been through a Selection Sunday, at least not as a member of the national committee.

So Greg, welcome aboard. This should be interesting.

Following Greg's projection, I will do bracketing to create a mock bracket. This bracket is if the season ended today: obviously, Widener or Delaware Valley and Mount Union or John Carroll will each lose on Saturday and change things around.

If you're new to this, reading our playoff FAQ will clear up many questions. Also, keep in mind that the national committee, when selecting at-large teams, discusses the top team "on the board" from each region each time. That means they're discussing four teams at a time, not the entire pool of eligible teams.

Greg Thomas takes over from here:

Projected automatic bids

Pool B (2 bids):

Wesley (5-0, 2-0 vs. RRO, 0.605 SOS). Wesley jumped UMHB in the South rankings (why? my guess is that Rowan being ranked makes the difference) which doesn't impact selection, but could impact whether or not Wesley hosts a semifinal. I still think Wesley and UMHB are most likely on the road to UWW and UMU if the top seeds hold, but that flip-flop was interesting.

For the other Pool B bid, the players are:

• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Texas Lutheran (7-1, 0.544 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• 9N Chicago (7-1, 0.498 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)

First, whither Centre? The South RAC has decided that Centre isn't as good as TLU, so I don't think we can really lump in to this group tonight. Chicago doesn't have a quality win and their RRO "result" wasn't great (and got a smidge worse with Bethel's second loss). So the Maroons are out. TLU has the SOS advantage, plus they have a RRO win (10s Hardin-Simmons) to go along with their RRO loss to UMHB. Framingham State now has an RRO result, but unfortunately it's a loss to E9 Rowan. The way this board lays out, I think TLU is really the only choice. Less easy to decipher is the case between TLU and Centre, but again, the South RAC made that choice for us.

Pool C (6 bids):
Round 1:

• 2N John Carroll (9-0, 0.470 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 1E Delaware Valley (9-0, 0.482 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

A couple of real surprises here. First Del Val staying 1 in the East despite losing their two RRO wins. That takes so much shine off of that profile. Also, UW-P being ranked ahead of Bethel despite having really no real profile advantage over the Royals. But this is what we've got to work with, so work we will. As the only team on this board with a win against a ranked opponent (I have no earthly idea how that can happen), John Carroll is the pick.

Round 2:

• 5N Wabash (8-1, 0.512 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 1E Delaware Valley (9-0, 0.482 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

This one is tough because the same logic that I used to pick JCU ought to lead me to pick Wabash here. But Wabash does the loss whereas DelVal doesn't, and while it isn't stated criteria, I'm not sure I can assume a scenario where the No. 1 ranked East team doesn't go off before the No. 5 ranked North team. If we assume Del Val has a loss (which they would if they are in this spot ... they'd also not be No. 1 in the region at that point), then Wabash is probably the pick. But we'll go with Delaware Valley here.

Round 3:

• 5N Wabash (8-1, 0.512 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

Welcome back, Rams. Now we have scenario where everybody on this board has a loss, Wabash is the only team with a RRO win, and nobody has a particularly overwhelming SOS advantage. Wabash goes in.

Round 4:

• 5N North Central (7-2, 0.543 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

Uh oh, Pioneers. Last week we pretty much determined that North Central being at the table with UW-P means doomsday for the Pioneers. And I kind of think that still has to be the case. And if you're scoring at home, that means Platteville is blocking Bethel at the moment. And now North Central is blocking Platteville. This is interesting. I'm eliminating Platteville because of the North Central head-to-head. Muhlenberg has been on the board for three rounds. Framingham has been around since Pool B with a Grover Cleveland-like break. If I'm looking at the losses here, Muhlenberg and Framingham were not particularly competitive in their RRO losses. North Central got clipped by a field goal at the buzzer at No. 3 North Wheaton. I like North Central's RRO loss better than the other two, I really like that they beat a regionally ranked team, they have a decent SOS advantage ... does all of that outweigh the extra loss to unranked Stevens Point? I think it does. North Central is the selection.

Round 5:

• 8N Heidelberg (7-2, 0.497 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 5W UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.524 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)

Honestly, I'm surprised at how this is playing out. At this point we can rule out Heidelberg, because while they do have two results versus RROs, the Princes no-showed in both of those games. And we've got teams here that have built up a good amount of balloting capital at this point. Platteville has the SOS advantage here, their two losses are to ranked teams, and the 17-7 result against #1 West UW-Whitewater is the kind of result that earns you some credit. Platteville can make this all a lot easier on themselves by beating Oshkosh on Saturday.

And what the means, is that Centre isn't getting on the table. Undefeated Centre isn't even getting talked about throughout the entire at-large process and, to be honest, that really bugs me. Those South rankings are really, really strange.

Round 6:

• 8N Heidelberg (7-2, 0.497 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
• t5S Muhlenberg (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 4E Framingham State (8-1, 0.521 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
• 6W Bethel (7-2, 0.625 SOS, 2-2 vs. RRO)

I really don't know how, with that SOS number and the only team throughout this entire process (after Wesley) to have two wins over ranked teams, we could argue against Bethel here. I know Muhlenberg has been there from the start. Framingham has been around for five rounds including the Pool B conversation. But I just don't know how you can apply the criteria in a reasonable manner and not pick Bethel. And we know that the committee, at least the chair of this committee, has indicated preference for strong schedules and quality wins. Schedules don't get a lot more difficult than the one Bethel played in 2014. I'm taking Bethel as the last team in.

The bracket

We end up with a lot of West and North Region teams. But that's OK -- after so many years of projecting men's basketball brackets, I've learned a lot about how to move teams around. 

We expect that because Division III has gone over budget on NCAA championships in recent years, that teams will be kept closer to their home brackets whenever possible. There actually are not any brackets here where 1-8, 4-5, 3-6, 2-7 holds up because of geography, changing brackets to avoid conference rematches and the like.

This shows first-round matchups, color-coded. To see how they bracket out beyond that, download the projected bracket at the bottom.

• Download our projected bracket

Remember that this bracket is if the season ended today.