Things just fire consistently, they pound the rock and the defense does what the defense does.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They're getting too cute on offense and it's not working, Chris Nelson needs to come in at quarterback and the secondary struggles enough that it's noticeable.
This season's turning point:
Running back Drew Patterson kept his feet churning and turned a modest gain into a 16-yard touchdown run to lift the Warhawks past UW-Oshkosh 17-14. But he has missed time with a high ankle sprain, so it's been a struggle.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.540 (40)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
198.0/216.3
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
83.8/295.2
Yards per play/allowed per play:
5.8/4.9
How far can they go?
One of the great questions of this bracket, but even banged up, UW-Whitewater should be fine to at least get to the quarterfinals.
Defensive pressure up front is unrelenting, Anthony Moeglin has the time necessary to pick and find his spots in the opposing secondary and it doesn't matter what kicks get converted.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The Blue Streaks have to settle for short passes and the defense can't get off the field.
This season's turning point:
Ray Brewster picked off Mount Union quarterback Dom Davis at the Blue Streaks 3-yard line on the second play of the fourth quarter and JCU outscored Mount Union 18-7 the rest of the way to win 31-28.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.510 (99)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
201.4/208.2
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
72.8/152.9
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.0/3.7
How far can they go?
Lots of question marks in this quadrant. How good is Wesley? Whitewater? Thomas More or Wittenberg? John Carroll fits in this group.
Wesley Wolverines
Seed:
Likely No. 3, UW-Whitewater bracket
Last Top 25 ranking:
No. 18, Week 11 2016
Location:
Dover, Del.
Enrollment (FT undergrads):
1407
Stadium:
Mike Drass Field at Scott D. Miller Stadium (2500)
Jamar Baynard is running the ball well enough that defense must commit additional defenders to the box, opening up the pass game to outside threats Bryce Shade and Alex Kemp. The defense is creating turnovers and getting off the field on third down.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They are losing the turnover battle and yellow flags fly. The Wolverines turned the ball over five times in both of their losses to Delaware Valley and Christopher Newport. They are among the most penalized teams in D-III but over the last half of the season penalties have been fewer.
This season's turning point:
The Rowan game. The Wolverines were cruising at halftime 24-3 in Glassboro. But then, despite being in the Rowan end of the field six times in the second half couldn't put the game away and survived a rally to win 24-17. This prompted a change at quarterback back to Nick Falkenberg. In the three games since, the junior has completed 63 percent of his passes for 863 yards with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.553 (26)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
194.3/268.5
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
139.9/164.3
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.2/4.7
How far can they go?
The Wolverines are definitely better than they were in September. And if they and John Carroll advance, well, so is John Carroll. A really good team could be going home after that game.
Linebackers Tunstill and Copeland are making tackles short of the sticks, getting the defense off the field while the offensive line is using its size to create 8-yard gains from Tarrant and Pitts on early downs, setting up the deep passes to Garland and Winkler in the play action game. Thomas More finished second in D-III, converting 54% of their third downs in the regular season.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The defense can't pressure the quarterback, allowing sustained drives, while the offense is misfiring in the passing game, being forced to methodically drive down the field. The Saints offense was 105th in the country in red zone offense, despite averaging 42.8 points per game.
This season's turning point:
At halftime in a key PAC week 3 contest against W&J, the Saints led 7-3. Following intermission, the TMC defense sparked the Saints by holding W&J to 104 offensive yards and intercepting two passes. Thomas More outscored W&J 28-6 in the half to close out its league rival.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.535 (46)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
272.1/245.8
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
101.6/239.6
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.9/4.9
How far can they go?
Even with question marks about UW-Whitewater's offense, the Warhawks are still a wall for Thomas More.
The defense is in control. The Tigers struggled to put up points against the top teams on their schedule. The offense has come alive in recent weeks against weaker competition, but the defense has been the consistent driving force for Wittenberg all season.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The offense can't put up points. Sophomore quarterback Jake Kennedy has been efficient, but the Tigers lack an explosive big-play weapon that many playoff teams have.
This season's turning point:
A 24-14 win over Wabash on Sept. 24. After falling behind 14-0, the Tigers reeled off the final 24 points of the game while holding the Little Giants to just 277 yards of total offense.
Special teams and/or the defense account for at least one score and the offense can keep things respectable in terms of moving the chains, controlling the clock and occasionally putting the ball in the end zone.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They aren't getting turnovers and the offense has a hard time sustaining long drives, while the defense gives up big plays.
This season's turning point:
Bouncing back to handle Lycoming on the road one week after getting shocked at home by Wilkes.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.491 (140)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
135.4/225.3
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
119.6/197.9
Yards per play/allowed per play:
5.5/4.5
How far can they go?
First playoff trip is likely a short one, but if Wesley is prone to turn the ball over, Stevenson has a secondary which will oblige.
The team is moving the ball on offense both on the ground and through the air and Braden Black (eight interceptions, one fumble) takes care of the ball.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The offense is struggling to get positive yardage. The team's average of 4.9 yards per snap is one of the lowest among playoff teams.
This season's turning point:
The 15-13 win at Hope. In adverse weather conditions, the Comets were able to put together a long drive to take the lead and hold on for the final 10 minutes of the game.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.558 (23)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
161.4/219.6
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
64.8/259.9
Yards per play/allowed per play:
4.9/5.2
How far can they go?
What's presented above doesn't seem like a great match for an OAC champion, even if it isn't Mount Union.
They let Michael Whitley out of the pocket a little bit and he has double-digit carries, with at least one for more than 10 yards.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
Opponents start with good field position against the Muskies' special teams and make quick work of the defense.
This season's turning point:
Jumping out to a 22-0 first-quarter lead vs. Aurora in a key game in the NACC race, two weeks after Lakeland picked up its third loss of the season, at the hands of Wisconsin Lutheran.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.434 (223)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
160.1/257.7
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
175.1/209.4
Yards per play/allowed per play:
5.7/5.2
How far can they go?
A second WIAC game won't be much different than the first.
UW-Whitewater Warhawks
John Carroll Blue Streaks
Wesley Wolverines
Thomas More Saints
Wittenberg Tigers
Stevenson Mustangs
Olivet Comets
Lakeland Muskies