The defense or special teams scores, Alex Fenske is efficient on offense and the team takes care of the football.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They can't find the hot hand to feed in the backfield and the defense is getting some stops, but not forcing turnovers.
This season's turning point:
Going 56 yards in 27 seconds and scoring the winning touchdown at Concordia-Moorhead with just two seconds left in the game. Otherwise, St. Thomas would not be in this position in the bracket, if in at all.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.482 (168)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
200.1/274.1
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
65.1/148.4
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.7/3.4
How far can they go?
First big challenge is in the quarterfinals and we won't know much before then.
Brett Kasper gets all of their offensive weapons involved: Dylan Hecker, Devon Linzmeyer, CJ Blackburn, Dom Todarello; and the defense is aggressive, not just waiting in coverage.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
Kicker Eli Wettstein is the game's leading scorer and Dylan Hecker takes more than a couple of wildcat snaps.
This season's turning point:
Midway through the fourth quarter of a home game with UW-Platteville, the Titans gave up a touchdown on an 11-play drive to cut the lead to two. But the Titans offense came right back out and scored two plays later to push the lead back to nine and UW-Oshkosh held on for the 22-13 win.
Heitland. Seriously, there isn't much more to say here. Trevor Heitland has been a workhorse at running back for Coe, with 51 carries vs. Dubuque and 31 vs. Wartburg, and he makes the Kohawks go.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
Opponents find a way to successfully avoid Dylan Stepleton in the passing game and the offensive line can't protect for Gavin Glenn.
This season's turning point:
Converting a 4-0 start into a 6-0 start by winning back-to-back close games against Wartburg, the IIAC's perennial contender, and Central, which entered the game at 4-1. The Kohawks then scored the last 16 points to win vs. Dubuque and cruised through the rest of the regular season.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.511 (97)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
272.5/229.4
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
142.9/219.0
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.6/4.8
How far can they go?
Back to the second round, which is a nice start for the Second Staker Era.
The defensive line is continuing to be as stifling as it has been in recent weeks, shutting down opponents' running games and generating pressure on the quarterback. St. John's allowed an MIAC-low 60 yards per game on the ground this season.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The offense is not protecting the football -- the Johnnies turned it over five times in a 33-21 loss to St. Thomas -- and not generating a running game. St. John's found itself in too many long yardage situations against the Tommies, who had four sacks and generated a ton of pressure on the passer.
This season's turning point:
Freshman quarterback Jackson Erdmann, who redshirted at Penn State last season, began the season in impressive fashion as the starter. But he suffered a concussion in the loss to St. Thomas, keeping him out of action for several weeks. Sophomore Ben Alvord stepped in and led his team to a 42-27 road win at Bethel the following week. He has started all but one game the rest of the way and has thrown for 1,052 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.521 (70)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
231.8/220.8
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
60.0/135.6
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.5/3.4
How far can they go?
Certainly a threat to win games but this bracket is pretty heavy, so there are no guarantees.
They keep their poise against adversity, Tanner Matlick is on the move and the defense is stopping the run.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They can't mount much of a rushing attack and lose their advantage in controlling the clock.
This season's turning point:
The Scots scored on back-to-back drives to tie the game with Wartburg after they fell down 15-0 early. Monmouth never trailed again -- not just in that game, but in the rest of the regular season.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.514 (90)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
249.9/261.0
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
82.6/116.4
Yards per play/allowed per play:
7.3/3.3
How far can they go?
Even in the most favorable matchup the MWC has gotten in a while, the second round is still the limit.
They're running the ball. Which is not something you'd normally say about a UW-Platteville team, but the Pioneers have run for the sake of running, not just to set up the pass. Most notably Sean Studer ran for 122 and quarterback Tom Kelly for 66 vs. Oshkosh and Wyatt Thompson rolled up 316 yards vs. La Crosse in Week 11.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The opposing quarterback has time to pick the defense to pieces and the Pioneers can't capitalize on the opponent's mistakes.
This season's turning point:
Simply getting into the field, after getting left out in 2015 with an identical record.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.577 (10)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
198.9/297.8
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
115.5/225.2
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.5/4.8
How far can they go?
A huge wild card, considering the first-round matchup. There's no get-your-feet-wet playoff opener this time around.
J.J. Tomlin does the J.J. Tomlin thing at quarterback. He's thrown 60 (yes, 60!) or more passes twice this season and 45 or more four times.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They can't stop the run. Wash U. allowed five 100-yard rushers in the final four games of the season, giving up an average of 41 points per game.
This season's turning point:
When Berry stuffed Centre's two-point conversion attempt in the fourth quarter, then got three more stops to win 21-19. Centre's loss allowed Wash U to win the tiebreaker for the automatic bid from the SAA.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.558 (21)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
131.9/366.9
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
242.6/260.8
Yards per play/allowed per play:
6.4/5.5
How far can they go?
They can go up to Oshkosh. And they can come back.
They can use the clock and strong defense to shorten the game and force the opposing team to make a mistake and give the Eagles offense a short field.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The opposing quarterback likes to use his feet and uses them successfully. The most points Northwestern gave up (other than their loss) all year was 20, ironically, to 0-10 Martin Luther, as TJ Babinec converted five third or fourth downs on the ground.
This season's turning point:
The Eagles intercepted passes on St. Scholastica's final two possessions as Northwestern defeated the Saints 14-7, holding an otherwise powerful offense completely in check.
Strength of schedule (rank):
.465 (195)
Rushing/passing yards per game:
125.5/199.3
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
124.2/200.5
Yards per play/allowed per play:
5.2/4.6
How far can they go?
Google says it's 7.5 miles. But the NCAA mileage charts say 8.0 miles, so perhaps they can pocket the difference when the NCAA reimburses for the bus trip.
St. Thomas Tommies
UW-Oshkosh Titans
Coe Kohawks
St. John's Johnnies
Monmouth Scots
UW-Platteville Pioneers
Washington U. Bears
Northwestern (Minn.) Eagles