2015 playoffs: St. Thomas bracket

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Tommies St. Thomas Tommies
Seed:Likely No. 1, St. Thomas bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 4, Week 11 2015
Location: St. Paul, Minn.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 5872
Stadium: O'Shaughnessy Stadium (6000)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: MIAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 14
Head coach: Glenn Caruso (Ithaca '96)
Career record: 89-25 (.781) overall, 83-13 (.865) at St. Thomas
Base offense: Pro style
Base defense: 4-3
Record in NCAA playoffs: 11-7 (1990, 2009-14)
NCAA D-III championships: None

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How they got here: Pool A, MIAC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: The huge offensive line sets the tone by wearing down the opposing defense, the passing game is efficient and the front seven is smothering on defense.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: They can't win the battle on special teams, the offense tries to force the ball downfield through the air and the defense gives up more big plays than it creates with sacks.
This season's turning point: The Tommies came out after halftime at St. John's and got a defensive stop, then drove 80 yards in 11 plays to take the lead. UST picked off the Johnnies on the next drive and UST scored two plays later. The Tommies have not looked back since.
Strength of schedule (rank): .500 (127)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 265.4/299.4
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 70.1/130.3
How far can they go? A standout defense and run game can take a team a long way, especially as the weather deteriorates in November ... and December.

Little Giants Wabash Little Giants
Seed:Likely No. 2, St. Thomas bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 7, Week 11 2015
Location: Crawfordsville, Ind.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 868
Stadium: Byron P. Hollett Little Giant Stadium (5000)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: NCAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 10
Head coach: Erik Raeburn (Mount Union '91)
Career record: 130-38 (.774), 76-12 (.864) at Wabash
Base offense: Spread
Base defense: 4-3
Record in NCAA playoffs: 11-8 (1977, 2002, 2005, 2007-09, 2011, 2014)
NCAA D-III championships: None

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How they got here: Pool A, NCAC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: The defensive line is winning in the trenches. The Little Giants lead the nation in rushing defense, allowing only 39 yards a game, and they've sacked opponents 40 times. That complements an overall defense that is third nationally. When the team is clicking, opponents won't get even a whiff of the end zone.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: They're sapping momentum with penalties. Wabash had two touchdowns called back because of penalties vs. Denison, and the team coughs up more than 58 yards per game because of them. The team will need to play cleaner games against postseason competition.
This season's turning point: The win over Wittenberg on Sept. 26. It marked the first time since 2012 that Wabash was able to topple Wittenberg. And it wasn't just the win that was significant, it was the lopsidedness on the scoreboard. That was also the game in which the Little Giants ditched their two-quarterback approach and settled on Connor Rice, a junior who has gone on to pass for 1,751 yards and 14 touchdowns, with 151 yards and six TDs rushing.
Strength of schedule (rank): .496 (138)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 264.8/202.7
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 49.7/159.9
How far can they go? A favorite to get to St. Paul, at the very least.

Johnnies St. John's Johnnies
Seed:Likely No. 3, St. Thomas bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 10, Week 11 2015
Location: Collegeville, Minn.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 1877
Stadium: Clemens Stadium (7482)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: MIAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 9
Head coach: Gary Fasching (St. John's)
Career record: 26-6 (.813)
Base offense: Pro style
Base defense: 4-3
Record in NCAA playoffs: 35-20 (1976-77, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1993-94, 1996, 1998-2003, 2005-09, 2014)
NCAA D-III championships: 1976, 2003

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How they got here: Pool C
You'll know they're playing well if: They can get by with just pounding Sam Sura up the middle on opponents and have success. He went over 21 carries just once in the last four games, so he should be fresh.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: They need to throw the ball, rather than just wanting to do so, they're susceptible to the opposing run game and they can't generate turnovers.
This season's turning point: None, and none needed. Although the Johnnies were crushed by archrival St. Thomas in Week 4, the Johnnies didn't really miss a beat after that and kept their postseason hopes right on track.
Strength of schedule (rank): .536 (48)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 220.7/184.6
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 120.7/180.9
How far can they go? Having shown already its dominance vs. Dubuque, and keeping in mind that rivalries are what they are, it's possible to get to the quarterfinals.

Saints Thomas More Saints
Seed:Likely No. 4, St. Thomas bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 9, Week 11 2015
Location: Crestview Hills, Ky.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 1209
Stadium: Bank of Kentucky Field (3000)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: PAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 23
Head coach: Regis Scafe (Case Western Reserve '71)
Career record: 114-90 (.559)
Base offense: Spread
Base defense: 4-4
Record in NCAA playoffs: 3-6 (1992, 2001, 2008-11)
NCAA D-III championships: None

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How they got here: Pool A, PAC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: Their running backs are running downhill on first down, opening up the entire playbook for second-and-short -- mixing play action, options and quick throws to their senior wide receivers.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: The offense can't gain positive first-down yardage and the defense gives up touchdowns after not being able to get off the field on third downs.
This season's turning point: Down 26-14 at Case with 1:48 left in the third quarter, the Saints marched 57 yards in four plays to pull within five points. Forcing three fourth-quarter turnovers and a turnover on downs, Thomas More outscored CWRU 22-6 to end the game and clinch the PAC title in Week 10.
Strength of schedule (rank): .487 (161)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 297.3/225.4
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 178.8/123.3
How far can they go? They should at least have a chance to make the quarterfinals.

Generals Washington and Lee Generals
Seed:Likely No. 5, St. Thomas bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 16, Week 11 2015
Location: Lexington, Va.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 1749
Stadium: Wilson Field (4000)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: ODAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 118
Head coach: Scott Abell (Longwood '92)
Career record: 25-16 (.610)
Base offense: Gun Flexbone
Base defense: Multiple 3-4
Record in NCAA playoffs: 0-3 (2006, 2010, 2012)
NCAA D-III championships: None

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How they got here: Pool A, ODAC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: They take care of business inside the 20 on both sides of the ball. The defense will bend, but has done a better job this year of making opponents put together long scoring drives rather than allowing the big play. The Generals have also buckled down in the red zone, holding opponents to 16 touchdowns in their first 28 trips. On the flipside, the nation's top rushing offense (by far) scored touchdowns on 38 of its first 48 red zone trips.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: They lose the turnover battle. The nature of the Generals offense lends itself to the occasional fumble or two (20 fumbles, 11 lost). But the defense has been especially opportunistic this season, forcing 22 turnovers through nine games with an even 11 interceptions and 11 fumble recoveries.
This season's turning point: A cynic might say that Matt Pawlowski's second quarter injury was the turning point, as the Generals held Guilford's offense in check for a 20-17 victory after the all-conference quarterback went down. But the real turning point came the following week, when W&L's young defense came up with a game-winning goal line stand on the road at Hampden-Sydney. Ever since, the defense has been playing with confidence.
Strength of schedule (rank): .493 (142)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 445.0/65.7
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 166.7/243.9
How far can they go? Dare we say, as far as quarterback Charlie Nelson can carry them?

Britons Albion Britons
Seed:Likely No. 6, St. Thomas bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: Never ranked
Location: Albion, Mich.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 1239
Stadium: Sprankle-Sprandel Stadium (4244)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: MIAA
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 116
Head coach: Craig Rundle (Albion '74)
Career record: 170-122 (.582) overall, 115-76 (.602) at Albion
Base offense: Multiple I
Base defense: 4-2-5
Record in NCAA playoffs: 5-9 (1977, 1985, 1991, 1993-94, 1996, 1998, 2005, 2011, 2013)
NCAA D-III championships: 1994

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How they got here: Pool A, MIAA champ
You'll know they're playing well if: The offense fires on all cylinders, and we mean it. At 580 yards per game, which is second in Division III, there are plenty of big numbers on the offensive side for Albion.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: The defense is what it is. It's the 25th-worst defense in Division III in terms of total yards, which is to say there are 216 D-III schools who give up fewer yards. It's pretty simple -- the offense needs to live up to its potential and the defense needs to exceed its performance to date.
This season's turning point: Leading Olivet 14-7 in the third quarter, in a game which would eventually decide the MIAA title, the Britons scored on a quick-strike drive. They went on to extend their lead to 35-7 and won 49-21.
Strength of schedule (rank): .560 (18)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 292.4/284.9
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 209.0/260.5
How far can they go? Most likely, this is a scouting trip for next year's season opener, but it'll be interesting to see how statistically great offense does against statistically great defense.

Spartans Dubuque Spartans
Seed:Likely No. 7, St. Thomas bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: No. 18, Week 11 2015
Location: Dubuque, Iowa
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 1589
Stadium: Chalmers Field (5000)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: IIAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 79
Head coach: Stan Zweifel (UW-River Falls '74)
Career record: 60-52 (.536) overall, 40-31 (.563) at Dubuque
Base offense: Pro I
Base defense: 4-3
Record in NCAA playoffs: 0-3 (1979-80, 2011)
NCAA D-III championships: None

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How they got here: Pool A, IIAC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: They're stuffing the run and keeping the opponent's passing game to short, underneath routes.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: The running game can't move the chains, and the punting game can't flip field position, either.
This season's turning point: Recovering the onside kick to halt Pacific's comeback and run out the clock in a 31-29 road win in Week 3.
Strength of schedule (rank): .554 (20)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 163.1/254.0
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 123.7/223.5
How far can they go? They might be more competitive than in the season opener vs. St. John's, but not competitive enough to move on.

Leopards La Verne Leopards
Seed:Likely No. 8, St. Thomas bracket
Last Top 25 ranking: Never ranked
Location: La Verne, Calif.
Enrollment (FT undergrads): 3106
Stadium: Ortmayer Stadium (1500)
Playing surface: Turf
Conference: SCIAC
Preseason ranking from Kickoff: 192
Head coach: Chris Krich (Mesa State)
Career record: 21-24 (.467)
Base offense: Spread no-huddle
Base defense: 4-3
Record in NCAA playoffs: 0-1 (1994)
NCAA D-III championships: None

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How they got here: Pool A, SCIAC champ
You'll know they're playing well if: The short passing game is effective, which opens up our running game. William Livingston averages just 7.1 yards per attempt and 188.1 yards per game, but that's not their focus on offense. Travis Sparks-Jackson is.
You'll know they're playing poorly if: They can't stop the run and the defense can't get off the field, and the opposing defense makes the offense one-dimensional. Against Whitworth, Sparks-Jackson had 108 yards and a touchdown, but Livingston was sacked six times.
This season's turning point: The Leopards scored two touchdowns in the final six minutes of the game, the last after bypassing a field goal with under two minutes left to beat Redlands 49-42.
Strength of schedule (rank): .500 (126)
Rushing/passing yards per game: 261.0/195.4
Rushing/passing yards allowed: 164.4/239.7
How far can they go? Back to the playoffs, which is a good first step.

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