If they are running the ball and letting their athletes operate in space and their defense and special teams outscores the opposing offense.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
Ed Ruhnke is on the field and takes the snap as the punter rather than lining up as the placekicker, plus the defense is forcing three-and-out possessions.
This season's turning point:
When the clock ran out on John Carroll in the Week 11 conference title showdown. Mount Union certainly has enough to look at on video from that game to see what it can work on.
They are converting third downs on offense and limiting big plays on defense. The Thunder are one of the top teams in the country converting on third down, and in their two biggest games, against North Central and Elmhurst, they converted 72% of the time. Wheaton led the CCIW in scoring defense and gave up the fewest plays of longer than 20 yards.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They are turning the ball over and failing to get pressure on the quarterback. Wheaton has just three turnovers since sophomore quarterback Johnny Peltz took over midseason. The defense sits back and keeps the offense in front of them. They get off the field by making tackles and forcing the other team to sustain long drives.
This season's turning point:
Wheaton was on the ropes at Augustana in Week 5. They had rotated quarterbacks all season and were winning games with defense while the offense struggled. Peltz had been moved to wide receiver to allieviate the logjam at quarterback. Wheaton squeaked out a win with just 35 yards of offense in the second half, and turned to Peltz as the starter at QB the next week against Millikin.
Rushing/passing yards per game:
172.8/240.9
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
130.8/200.6
How far can they go?
At least one win, but the second round presents an interesting matchup with either team.
They can contain the opposing quarterback, which they did vs. Heidelberg but not vs. Mount Union, and Tommy Michals can break off a couple of medium-to-long runs to complement Mark Myers' big arm.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They start slowly, which they did vs. Ohio Northern and Mount Union. Or they need to rely on a long field goal, as standout kicker Kresimir Ivkovic was injured late in the season and is out.
This season's turning point:
Scoring on two long drives in the fourth quarter to rally past Ohio Northern 17-10. It's the only time anyone other than Mount Union has held the Blue Streaks under 43 points.
Rushing/passing yards per game:
200.6/311.7
Rushing/passing yards allowed:
92.2/122.9
How far can they go?
Anything less than the quarterfinals is a disappointment.
The Tigers are taking the ball away. Witt averages three takeaways per game and turnovers often decide big games.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
Quarterback Zach Jenkins is feeling the heat. Witt's run game isn't up to their usual standard, so they have been pass-reliant. Disrupting Jenkins can derail the Tiger offense.
This season's turning point:
Dwight Hill's 58-yard fumble return touchdown vs. Wabash, which kept Witt in the game and set the stage for that win. The Tigers may not have made the tournament without that play.
Record-setting quarterback Pete Coughlin is firing on all cylinders, wearing down the defense and putting up lots of points. The team is third in the nation in total offense for a reason.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
They're not building a big lead early. W&J doesn't have a great pass defense, which could allow good teams the opportunity to rally.
This season's turning point:
Remains to be determined. While the Presidents handled their first nine opponents with ease, the Waynesburg loss in Week 11 was a stunning one. If they can?t bounce back against Wittenberg, then that game will go down as a sour turning point for W&J.
Max Mazza has a big day on offense to take pressure off the running game and the defense can contain the quarterback using the front four.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The defensive front doesn't get enough pressure and allows the opposing quarterback to find open targets deep in the secondary.
This season's turning point:
Leading 28-23 at Washington and Lee, the Centre defense came up with a pair of sacks to stuff the Generals' last chance at a scoring drive. A loss to W&L would have killed the Colonels' playoff hopes, as W&L finished 2-8.
They're controlling the clock. They led the NACC in time of possession (in conference games) and in their season-ending five-game win stream they ran for 145 yards or more every time. Benedictine held the ball for 37:47 in the clincher vs. Lakeland.
You'll know they're playing poorly if:
The opponent scores four times or more. Benedictine was 0-3 when giving up 23 points, 6-1 in every other game. They've also held opponents under 100 yards rushing in their season-ending streak.
This season's turning point:
Bouncing back after a 1-4 start to shut out archrival Aurora 26-0 and start the run to the end of the season.
Mount Union Purple Raiders
Wheaton (Ill.) Thunder
John Carroll Blue Streaks
Wittenberg Tigers
Washington and Jefferson Presidents
Centre Colonels
Adrian Bulldogs
Benedictine Eagles