Our playoff surprises, disappointments

Last year's Cinderella, now Aurora is toeing the line between surprise, disappointment, or just plain expected to be good. Photo by Doug Sasse, d3photography.com

By Greg Thomas
D3sports.com

Welcome to the Road to Salem!

It feels good to put that back out into the universe. For the 50th edition of the Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl, the Division III football championship returns to the location that for so long had been synonymous with the pinnacle of Division III football. Some things look the same as we get ready for the return to Salem. Mount Union and UW-Whitewater are both excellent and on opposite sides of the bracket making an eight meeting between those teams in Salem a possibility. Other things are different. North Central has supplanted the purple powers as favorites and we’re missing some playoff regulars in Mary Hardin-Baylor, Linfield, and St. John’s. 

Despite the lack of some familiar faces, the 2023 championship field is powerful. Eleven unbeaten teams are in the field joined by 14 teams with just one loss and seven multiple loss teams. The seven multiple loss teams equals last year’s total, both are lows over the last ten year period. Ten of the 14 losses by one-loss teams in this tournament came at the hands of another team in the field of 32. Around The Nation Podcast episode 343 has a lot of talk about the treatment of strength of schedule, but playing playoff caliber teams pays off more often than it doesn’t. Keep this trend going. 

• Playoff team-by-team capsules: UW-La Crosse bracket | Wartburg bracket | Mount Union bracket | Johns Hopkins bracket
• Coe got the call
• Union excited for playoff chance
• NCAA playoff bracket

The tournament kicks off with eight games at at noon Eastern time on Saturday. Seven more games will start an hour later before we can all settle in with the end of the first round at the Pine Bowl at Whitworth. All sixteen games feature at least one ranked team- eleven weeks of regular season games have left us with these 32. The best of the best.  Let the chase for the Walnut & Bronze begin. 

There will be plenty of content here at D3football.com on the road to Salem to get you ready for the 2023 Division III Football Championship. Our team capsules are live, and our Quick Hits panel will be back tomorrow to predict the score of every first round game. 

As is tradition here at ATN, we're going to dive deep into each of the four quadrants of the 2023 Division III playoff bracket. ATN has assembled a panel of Division III football experts to break down each region of the bracket. Who will survive the Quadrant of Destruction? Will any of the Pool C qualifiers make a run to Salem? Other than Aurora, is there another Aurora in this field? Which team will fall short of expectations, or fail to live up to its regular season performance? 

Our postseason panel consists of Publisher and Executive Editor Pat Coleman, In the Huddle host and Stagg Bowl Sideline Reporter Frank Rossi, Senior Editor Ryan Tipps, creator of Hansen Ratings and Quick Hits panelist Logan Hansen, Managing Editor of True to the Cru Riley Zayas, and me, Around the Nation Columnist Greg Thomas. Before we get to our score predictions on Friday, we took an in-depth look at each quadrant of the bracket.

For each region, our panelists picked one team that will surprise, one that will disappoint, and one that will make it through to the national semifinals. 

Nobody on the panel consulted with one another; each person did their part independently. The panelists are spread out across the country, so hopefully any perception of bias balances out.

 

UW-LA CROSSE BRACKET

Surprises

Ryan: Trinity. Yeah, I know Trinity is the home team in Round 1, but I’m landing on Trinity in this space because I think they’re going to win more comfortably against Hardin-Simmons than others would likely predict. And they’ll be in good position to give North Central a fright when that opportunity comes.

Frank: Aurora. What we’re learning about Aurora is that there is nothing about their ascent that is a fluke. Every year we say, “It was a great year, but they’ll return back down to Earth,” and we’re always “Beebe’d” as a result. I see a quarterfinal in this team’s future.

Riley: Aurora. The Spartans knocked off a national title contender last year early in the playoffs, stunning UW-Whitewater. This time around, I think Aurora finds a way to end the season of another legitimate national championship frontrunner out of the WIAC in UW-La Crosse and reach the third round of the playoffs for the second straight year. The Spartans' offense is truly the real deal and will be put on full display.

Logan: Aurora. Four years ago, Aurora played one of the most entertaining playoff games I've ever seen, giving SJU all they could handle in a 51-47 loss. A year ago, Aurora beat the WIAC champ and advanced to the quarterfinals, winning the first two DIII playoff games in the NACC's history. Whether they win a game or two again is irrelevant to whether they'll surprise. The surprise is that they've maintained this level of play for as long as they have.

Greg: Aurora. Should we really be surprised if the Spartans make another charge to the quarters? I don’t think so. Aurora’s 2022 tournament run wasn’t a fluke- they had been on the big stage a number of times previously and not flinched. They may hail from the NACC, but Aurora can absolutely go with the big boys.

Pat: Coe. Surprise possibilities seem somewhat thin in this bracket, unless we are picking teams to surprise while also still losing. But Coe went more or less toe-to-toe with Wartburg earlier this season, and I think they can do the same against Aurora.

Disappointments

Ryan: Aurora. The Spartans may have been the surprise stars of the 2022 postseason, but no one is going to be caught off guard this time around. Coe is scrappy and dangerous, and they are surely well aware that many people have questioned whether they should have been a Pool C pick. I can’t think of a better motivation for a team to be on a mission to prove their naysayers wrong and score a big win on the road.

Frank: Trinity.  I hate having to say this, as I believe this team has exemplified everything that is right about Division 3 football and the will to win with how the 2022 seniors banded together to come back. Yet, this setup absolutely sucks. Trinity earned the right to be a 2-seed and to avoid this type of Second Round matchup. Well, it didn’t happen, and now they face a buzzsaw in NCC if they can get through Hardin-Simmons. Wow.

Riley: After that response, is UW-La Crosse the pick here? I feel like that's the case, though there are a few possible picks for "disappointment" in this quadrant. As the top seed in this region, UWL has legitimate national semifinal goals, but with an Aurora upset, that goes out the window. I'm sure UWL feels that this is a pivotal breakthrough postseason opportunity after narrowly falling to Wartburg last year in the playoffs. They should win easily in the opening round. But in the second round? I don't know.

Logan: UW-La Crosse. I think the Eagles are probably the biggest challenge to North Central in this bracket. They're one of the most complete teams in the country, with no obvious flaws on offense, defense, or special teams, but the way this bracket is laid out, UWL very well may be the top overall seed, and anytime the top overall seed doesn't advance to the semifinals, it's a disappointment.

Greg: In 2010, defending champion UW-Whitewater received a curious tournament draw that not only saw them not be a top seed in the tournament, but saw them have to travel a difficult road from the quarterfinals onward. The slight was egregious enough that the NCAA subsequently built some language into the selection and seeding process that served more or less as seed armor for undefeated teams that had performed well in the previous tournament, especially champions. I’m not sure what happened to that language and why it’s been left behind, but North Central’s position in this tournament field just isn’t right. I’m not mad at it- I’m disappointed.

Pat: UW-La Crosse. It's just a tough bracket to get out of, and I'm tired of saying I'm disappointed in the committee.

 

Last team standing

Ryan: North Central. Been said before and should be said again: It’s wild that the Cardinals weren’t given one of the four No. 1 bracket seeds. It’ll be hard for opponents to chase the kind of points North Central is known to put up, but NCC won’t be immune to being on their heels and having to survive tough games against the likes of Trinity and UW-La Crosse.

Frank: North Central. They’re battle-tested. Yes, I said it.

Riley: This is, in my opinion, the toughest quadrant in the tournament. But North Central is the pick here for me. As much as I think Trinity or Hardin-Simmons will contend at a high level with NCC in the second round, the Cardinals have experience, depth, and firepower on both sides of the ball. They're the national title favorite for a reason and my pick to reach the semifinals. 

Logan: North Central. Luke Lehnen has thrown 34 touchdown passes this season. Luke Lehnen has thrown 35 incompletions this season. He's about to destroy the all time NCAA record for passer rating. North Central currently has the highest rating my model has ever seen, going back to 1997. In their biggest challenge of the year, against Top 10 Wheaton, they raced (it always feels like a footrace watching them play) to a 35-7 halftime lead.

Greg: North Central. The Cardinals have been trucking along, minding their own business waiting for this postseason to get started. This is a team with superior talent, little to no weaknesses, and now they have any and all motivation they could ever need.

Pat: North Central. Probably completely in a scorched-earth manner, frankly.

 

WARTBURG BRACKET

Surprises

Ryan: Whitworth. Whitworth feels like a dark-horse pick in this postseason, having had to almost live in Linfield’s shadow by default throughout the regular season until … well, until they all of a sudden weren’t in that shadow anymore. Looking ahead to the second round, I think Whitworth would match up well against Wartburg and make that game one of best Thanksgiving weekend matchups.

Frank: UW-Whitewater. After weathering injuries that made the team vulnerable at various points of the midseason, the Warhawks are back and will serve as a tough out in this section of the bracket.

Riley: Wheaton. I'm not sure that there will be many surprises or disappointments in this region. But if I had to pick a "surprise", it might be Wheaton, who goes down as a surprise pick with the way they challenge UW-Whitewater in the second round, even in the case that their playoff run ends with a loss to the Warhawks. This is a team that has potential to come up with a big play in the most crucial of moments and has running back Giovanni Weeks, one of the best ballcarriers in the country. Weeks just might carry Wheaton past Mount St. Joseph and into a tight battle with UW-Whitewater.

Logan: Mount St. Joseph. The Lions lost to Hope 40-35 in mid-September. That was the fewest points they've scored all year, and they haven't scored fewer than 7 TDs in a game since. I don't know if the defense will be able to hold up against playoff competition to pull off a first round upset, but I have a feeling that offense is going to put up a surprising number against Wheaton.

Greg: Mount St. Joseph. Let’s put Wheaton very squarely in the lucky to be here column. The Thunder survived a potent rushing attack in their game with Augustana, much less so against North Central, and are playing this week thanks to the Miracle at McCully two weeks ago against WashU. The Lions can run it very well, Josh Taylor has been about as indefensible as players get in Division III, and if the Lions can get even just a scintilla of defense in this one, they’ll have a shot to advance to the round of 16 on the road.

Pat: Chapman. Chapman nearly brought down Whitworth earlier this season. Whitworth has improved over the course of this season, but so has Chapman. Regardless of who comes out, it should be a good battle.

Disappointments

Ryan: Wartburg. By default of my pick above, I’m settling on Wartburg here beyond Round 1. Home teams in this bracket should sweep the openers, but I don’t think the Knights have the same magic they had in 2022 to again carry them deep into the playoffs.

Frank: Wartburg.  I still don’t understand how Wartburg ends up as a No. 1 seed (yes, they’re a No. 1 regardless of what the NCAA says) out of the Region 5 scenario. Wartburg is a good team, no doubt, but it’s a reflection of a bad level of analysis in the NCAA system that we thought was rectified by the recent better-performance-in-the- previous-year’s-playoffs “tiebreaker.” I don’t think they have the legs to get by Whitewater this year, and as such, another No. 1 goes down here.

Riley: I just don't see any disappointments here. Not if chalk holds like I expect it to (which I fully understand is inviting chaos to play out through this region!).

Logan: Bethel. The Royals are the flip-side of the MSJ coin, with one of the most outstanding defenses in the country, but in the two games they've played this season against playoff-quality opponents (sorry if this is twisting the knife for SJU fans), their offense managed only 7 points and less than 3.25 yards per play. A MIAC championship is a nice sendoff for Steve Johnson, but a first round exit in the playoffs is definitely a disappointment.

Greg: Whitworth. The Pirates have earned the home game, but they’ll be seeing a different Chapman side than the one they defeated in September. The Panthers have a settled quarterback situation, an offensive identity that was lacking the first time around, and a defense that is cranking out more turnovers than a bakery. Watch out for an upset in the Pine Bowl.

Pat: Wartburg? It's just going to be so difficult to repeat what they did last year, and reach the semifinals.

 

Last team standing

Ryan: UW-Whitewater. So many marquee wins on their resume this year, I have to believe the Warhawks are at full force right now.

Frank: UW-Whitewater. As Leipold and Kansas continue their ascent, so does Rindahl and UWW.

Riley: UW-Whitewater will challenge Wartburg well in what I anticipate to be a must-see third round duel. But in the end, my pick is with the Knights, who are led by running back Hunter Clasen and boast the fifth-best scoring defense in the nation, surrendering just 8.90 points per game. Defense wins championships, as the old cliche goes, and Wartburg will be a good example of that, with a high-powered offense to go along with it.

Logan: Wartburg. I waffled on this one more than any other quadrant. I'm sure I'll get text messages giving me grief about this, but I've had UWW No. 3, ahead of Wartburg at No. 4 on my Top 25 ballot for most of the latter half of the season. Their resume warrants it. They didn't play a team that didn't receive Top 25 votes until October 21, and their only loss was on a last second 51 yard FG. But I think HFA for Wartburg, the strength-for-strength matchup of the Knights' defense vs the Warhawks' offense, and the playoff experience for Wartburg's impact players put them over the top.

Greg:  UW-Whitewater. The Warhawks are a walkoff 50-yard field goal away from running the table on one of the most ridiculous schedules any D-III team has put together. Ever. Wartburg has been excellent, but not as sharp as they were in their 2022 semifinal run. A quarterfinal showdown in Waverly would absolutely be a tournament highlight that I could see go either way. This week, I’ll lean to Whitewater, but this is close enough to be a flip when we get to Quick Hits for the quarterfinals.

Pat: UW-Whitewater. But it should be a fun ride.

MOUNT UNION BRACKET

Surprises

Ryan: Cortland. This is the team best positioned to give Mount Union a good fight in the regional finals, but the Red Dragons will be pounding the pavement a lot as they’ll go on the road for every round.

Frank: Cortland. Well, I’m not sure I can even call this a surprise, but there will be some demons exorcised in this process, as the Red Dragons, who NEVER should have been put on the road to start, seem to have learned volumes from their Susquehanna loss midseason. Cortland should make their way to the Quarters.

Riley: Grove City. The Wolverines are in the midst of a historic campaign, having just notched their first 10-0 regular season in program history with Saturday's shutout of Thiel. And that momentum will carry into the playoffs, led by GCC's outstanding defense, which has allowed just 13.8 points per game. I will not be surprised to see them still playing on the third weekend of this tournament.

Logan: Cortland. The Red Dragons are bracketed in the location a 6 seed would typically be, and they're going on the road to play Endicott (who they share a common opponent with, Ithaca)... and they very well could advance to the quarters. Wouldn't that be a surprise? Well, no, not really. After all, Boyes and the boys had a big lead on the 2-seed River Hawks back in September before a wild fourth quarter comeback. I look forward to a rematch.

Greg: Cortland. The Red Dragons figure to be road warriors throughout this tournament, this week at Endicott in a game that all of the criteria would tell us should be played at Cortland. Next week looms a potential rematch with Susquehanna which would be one of the more anticipated potential games in this tournament. Fresh off of a dominant win over Brockport and knocking out Liberty League champion Ithaca, Cortland is fire-breathing hot coming in to this tournament. Susquehanna has been excellent, but untested since Landmark Conference play began seven weeks ago.

Pat: Cortland, I guess. I mean, I won't be surprised, but apparently the people making the brackets will.

Disappointments

Ryan: Susquehanna. This should be one of the better Round 1 matchups, as both Susquehanna and Grove City are stout undefeated teams that can put some good pressure on the opposing quarterback. But I have the Wolverines higher on my Top 25 ballot than most and Susquehanna a little lower, and I don’t think the relatively weak Landmark Conference schedule has done the River Hawks any favors in postseason prep.

Frank: 10-0 vs. 10-0 x 2 - I know we’re supposed to pick teams, but this has to be said. There was NO reason to place undefeated teams against each other in Round 1. Susquehanna/Union and Grove City/DelVal. There are multiple ways to avoid Alma/DePauw. This may line up as a way to make it look Ike Mount Union has a harder road, but they won’t play ALL of those teams. As such, this was a real disaster in this quadrant that didn’t need to happen.

Riley: Cortland. While I think the Red Dragons have a favorable matchup against Endicott in the first round, I'm not entirely convinced that Endicott won't be able to spring an upset of sorts against Cortland. Endicott's defense will need to play a near-perfect game, and we've seen a few really impressive defensive showings from Endicott, who ranks in the Top 10 in the country in multiple defensive stat categories. Even with a win over Endicott, I don't think Cortland will be playing in the third round, which would go down as somewhat of a disappointment for a team with plenty of momentum coming off the Cortaca Jug win over Ithaca.

Logan: Grove City. I don't think the Wolverines will look back on their program's first undefeated regular season as any sort of a disappointment, but typically an undefeated PAC champion should be a threat to win a game or two in the playoffs, and I don't know if that's going to happen this year. Grove City had their AQ basically wrapped up before October, following a string of one score wins against CWRU, CMU, & W&J. Teams that win in late November are usually teams that dominated in the regular season.

Greg: Grove City. The Wolverines are making their first tournament appearance in program history, but working through the lower tier of the PAC over the last six weeks isn’t the best prep work for an excellent Susquehanna side eager to atone for last year’s first round exit. This is a difficult draw for the Wolverines and one that I think ends abruptly.

Pat: Susquehanna. Not sure if it's in round 1 or round 2.

Last team standing

Ryan: Mount Union. There are very few speed bumps along the way.

Frank: Mount Union. Their defense has been beyond strong all year, and their offense has steadily improved toward the end of the season — meaning UMU is peaking at the exact right time.

Riley: Mount Union. No reason to go against the Purple Raiders here. The 49-14 win at John Carroll in Week 10 convinced me of that. This is a deep and experienced Mount Union squad with a high ceiling and national title game expectations, led by a number of All-America-caliber players and an outstanding defense. The Purple Raiders haven't given up more than 17 points in a game this season.

Logan: Mount Union. If you put a hypothetical average playoff team in Mount Union's slot in the bracket, they would be the favorites to advance out of this quadrant. The Purple Raiders are not an average playoff team. It seemed like the machine was in cruise control for much of the season, but when they needed to, they showed that they still had an extra gear against John Carroll. A year ago, the Purple Raiders almost missed the playoffs if not for a miraculous Hail Mary in Week 11, and they still made the Stagg Bowl. This season, they made it look easy in the regular season.

Greg: Mount Union. Too much talent, too much experience. There are going to be some very exciting games in this bracket, but I do not anticipate that any of them will involve the Purple Raiders.

Pat: Mount Union.

 

JOHNS HOPKINS BRACKET

Surprises

Ryan: Union. Saturday against Delaware Valley is poised to be a great defensive standoff, with both teams as statistically Top 5 defenses nationally. While neither team is particularly potent in the pass game, this is the kind of scenario where a breakout reception here or there could divert the game’s momentum and majorly impact the outcome.

Frank: Randolph-Macon. The Yellow Jackets were a Drew Campanale concussion away from showing us just how strong they were in 2022’s playoffs. Well, they’re back and seemingly even better. I don’t see anyone slowing them down early in this bracket.

Riley: Delaware Valley. The Aggies have been a question mark throughout this season, yet found ways to win late in games time and time again. Does that continue into the playoffs? I think so. DelVal's matchup with Union might be the best defensive showdown we see on Saturday, and a win from the Aggies, who enter this matchup as the underdog, would be somewhat of a surprise, especially considering how strong Union has been.

Logan: Union. I'm not going to be surprised if the Garnet Chargers advance out of the first round, but judging from the various Top 25 polls, a lot of voters will be. Their game at DelVal is going to be low-scoring, with two outstanding defenses, which means any one play could make or break the game. Union's defense regularly sets up their offense with short fields in low-scoring games, and Delaware Valley is one of the most turnover prone teams in the bracket.

Greg: Union. The Garnet Chargers are on the road, but they have a great matchup with Delaware Valley. Looking ahead, a potential game with Johns Hopkins would favor the Blue Jays, but a win is not beyond Union’s reach. In a wide open region, Union has an opportunity to win multiple games.

Pat: Randolph-Macon. Perhaps. Or I hedge my bets when I pick who will advance.

Disappointments

Ryan: Springfield. Common result against Union aside, the Pride will be on the wrong end of an Ithaca team that has some ground to make up after a loss to its biggest rival last week. The Bombers are too balanced for Springfield to really gain traction against on Saturday.

Frank: Ithaca. This has been a season for the Bombers that should’ve been a continuation of 2022 in many ways, but the road bumps have been a lot to endure. From the Week 1 loss to Hopkins to the loss of AJ Wingfield vs. Union, to the loss of Cortaca, it’s just a lot for this team to weather as they enter the playoffs. Even if they can make it through Springfield, their season won’t extend any further than Round 2.

Riley: Ithaca. I'm not completely sure that Springfield won't be able to keep the ball on the ground and edge Ithaca in a low-scoring win. The defensive front for Springfield is stringent against the run, which could spell trouble for an Ithaca offense that averages 200 yards per game on the ground. Even beyond that matchup, Randolph-Macon would be my pick to win in a matchup against Ithaca in the second round, and by a significant margin.

Logan: Delaware Valley. As noted in the Week 11 Quick Hits, DelVal seemed to be the most popular pick for Top 25 team to get upset all season, but they managed to make it through the MAC unblemished again, and the also managed to hold onto a Top 25 rating all season. As noted in my surprise pick, I think Union advances, DelVal makes an early playoff exit, and the Aggies drop out of the Top 25 for the first time since 2016.

Greg:  Ithaca. It took Ithaca 55 minutes to finally separate from the Pride in last year’s second round matchup with Springfield. This time, at home, Ithaca’s 99th ranked rush defense will be put to the test against Springfield’s best-in-the-nation rushing offense. Will the Bombers find enough offense with limited possessions to advance?

Pat: Delaware Valley. The Aggies have been hanging in our rankings but I'd rather Union have been ranked.

 

Last team standing

Ryan: Johns Hopkins. There’s no doubt that the Jays have the offense to get them here, but they’ll need more than usual from their defense to back that up.

Frank: Randolph-Macon. Hopkins fans probably love that I made this prediction, but I’ll say that RMC is just in a different realm right now compared to what we’ve seen in the past. A JHU/RMC matchup would be worth the trip to Baltimore.

Riley: Johns Hopkins. The Blue Jays have been outstanding all year and led by standouts such as DE Luke Schuermann and WR Cole Crotty (who is still just a freshman), JHU has an incredible level of talent on the roster. The wins over Ithaca, Christopher Newport, and Muhlenberg give me confidence that this is a team with favorable odds to make a run to the semifinals. 

Logan: Randolph-Macon. They haven't been tested against quality competition the way teams like Ithaca or Johns Hopkins have been, but RMC hasn't shown any reason we should doubt them. They've beaten the teams they should beat in a way a good playoff team should beat them. They have a stout defense, and strong running game, and in my opinion, the best quarterback East of the 81st meridian.

Greg: Randolph-Macon. 10-0 seasons don’t always look easy, but the Yellow Jackets just put together one of the easiest looking regular season sweeps outside of Naperville and Alliance. This team has definitely been unchallenged, and maybe untested, but without a Division-III powerhouse in the region, a run to the semis is open for several teams. It may well be Randolph-Macon’s time to experience the semifinals.

Pat: Johns Hopkins. And the bet is hedged.

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Small college football is actually pretty massive. Division III is home to 240 teams, many thousands of student-athletes and coaches. There are so many more stories out there than I can find on my own. Please share your stories that make Division III football so special for all of us! Reach out to me at greg.thomas@d3sports.com or on X @wallywabash to share your stories.

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