By Pat Coleman
D3sports.com
Five weeks into the season is enough time to take a look around the conferences and talk about postseason hopes. Sure, conference schedules are just getting underway in most of the Mid-Atlantic region conferences, but we can look ahead to the big games that will decide the three AQs the NCAA will be giving out.
Centennial
It's definitely No. 8 Western Maryland in the driver's seat, as they're 3-0 in the conference and have already knocked off marginal contenders Ursinus and Muhlenberg. Nobody's beaten the Green Terror in the Centennial in a while, but they haven't won a postseason game yet either.
Our best guess: It's Western Maryland again, in a sleepwalk.
Middle Atlantic
This is Lycoming's conference to lose, again. They lead the Freedom League in early going (though only one league game so far) and have beaten the Commonwealth League's two unbeaten teams, Juniata and Widener. But Juniata should be considered for one of the four national at-large bids should they win out and finish 9-1. That would include a win against Carnegie Mellon (more on them later).
Our best guess: Just Lycoming. I don't have enough faith in the committee to take a second team in this instance.
Old Dominion
This race is still wide open. Four of the seven teams are still undefeated, though the true contenders are still considered to be Catholic, Emory & Henry and Randolph-Macon, in that order. Randolph-Macon has not played well since a season-opening 54-20 win against Gettysburg, and even in that win they allowed the Bullets the most points they've scored so far against anyone other than Centennial doormat Swarthmore. The Yellow Jackets might be out of the picture if they lose at Catholic on Saturday. Then this race would still hinge on the Oct. 30 game between Catholic and Emory & Henry.
Our best guess: Not much chance for an at-large bid out of this conference, as each of the three has already lost a crucial non-conference game to a ranked opponent.
Atlantic Central
There's no AQ in this fledgling football-only conference, but No. 16 Frostburg State is making a strong push for an independent (Pool B) bid, at 4-0. They might not actually have to run the table, as there are probably not nine independents/non-AQ conference members worthy of postseason play.
Our best guess: One bid only, and it goes to Frostburg State, even if they finish 9-1.
Others
And that brings us to Carnegie Mellon. At 4-0, the Tartans had gotten up to No. 19 in the nation without a real opponent. Really? Try Denison (1-3, with their only win against Oberlin, losers of 24 in a row); Case Western (0-4); and Bethany (1-4, with their only win against Newport News). Only a home win against Alfred (3-1) keeps their opponents' cumulative record above .300.
No. 23 Washington & Jefferson is the Mid-Atlantic's best bet for a fifth bid, but they have the hardest road ahead. They've already played four rankable teams, with always-tough Grove City and No. 9 Buffalo State still ahead. This is a team that's already lost to No. 17 Hanover, but the Presidents can probably absorb one more loss and still make the postseason as a Pool B bid.
Our best guess: No to Carnegie Mellon (remember, I've already assumed Juniata will run the table, giving the Tartans at least once more loss). Yes to Washington & Jefferson, assuming they can survive.
The week ahead
The biggest game has to be Susquehanna at Juniata (1:30), a rematch of last year's 62-61 double overtime winner. This will be the 40th time the two have played for possession of the Goal Post Trophy, which is an actual piece of the goal post Juniata students "captured" after a 12-7 upset win at Susquehanna in 1952. It's surprising the goal posts were left standing last season at Stagg Field as these two rivals broke two NCAA scoring records, and broke or tied five MAC offensive records in the game, which featured 123 points and a combined 1,093 yards of total offense.
Susquehanna (3-1, 0-0) needs a win to prove they're not the same team that got blanked at Wilkes last Saturday, while Juniata (3-1, 2-0) is still begging for respect. Literally. I got two emails on the subject this week.
Randolph-Macon at Catholic (1:00)
The first salvo in the round-robin battle for ODAC supremacy, see above.
Frostburg State at Wesley (1:00)
Wesley (2-2, 1-0) was picked first in the ACFC preseason coaches' poll but has suffered losses at No. 3 Rowan and Division I-AA Butler to fall off the radar. They're still undefeated in conference play, however, so they still have a chance to unseat Frostburg State (4-0, 2-0) as conference leader, if not a chance for the playoffs.